ECMWF 10/02/03 - Larry may last longer than you think -

[Stormsfury]

According to the 12z 10/02/03 ECMWF model outputs tonight, basically holds Larry stationary thru Day 3 and finally moves SW into MEX on Day 4 and pretty much follows the 12z GFDL in regards to track.

EURO JAVA animation

However, this may NOT be where Larry ends, especially if it has enough speed behind its charge southwest, assuming the EURO is correct.

Notice on Day 5, the mountains of MEX in that area basically disrupt the circulation crossing over MEX. But also notice this is the most narrow point of MEX and on Day 6, a 1008 mb low appears SOUTH of that area and another low to the west of that. Is that the remnant vorticity of Larry? Maybe. If ... and a BIG if, the circulation isn't too disrupted, there's a possibility that some energy leftover from Larry will make it into the EPAC, assuming the EC solution is correct.

To answer one HYPOTHETICAL question before it's even asked, if a low-level circulation can be identified enough of Larry being maintained from the BOC into the EPAC then the name Larry would be maintained in the EPAC. However, if not and something does spin up from the vorticity remains then the system would be deemed the next EPAC name in line. (Tropical Storm Bret becoming Hurricane Douglas in the EPAC, for example or a better example Hurricane Iris in 2001 with the remnants spawning Tropical Storm Manuel in the EPAC - More information regarding this can be found HERE).

SF