KATE #31 - DISCUSSION

[AussieMark]

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WTNT41 KNHC 030844
TCDAT1
HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI OCT 03 2003

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH KATE
HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. THE EYE IS LARGE AND DISTINCT AND IT IS
EMBEDDED IN A ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB ARE 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE INDICATING THAT THE WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR
A DAY OR TWO AND KATE IS HEADING FOR WARMER WATERS AS INDICATED BY
DRIFTING BUOYS. THEREFORE...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.

THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED AND KATE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST
OR SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT 10 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OT THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. KATE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS AHEAD OF A LARGE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS..PRIMARILY THE
CONSENSUS GUNS AND GUNA.

ONCE KATE MAKES THE NORTHWARD TURN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...IT SHOULD
ACCELERATE AND GRADUALLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. KATE WILL EVENTUALLY
BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0900Z 29.3N 47.8W 90 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 29.3N 49.5W 95 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 30.0N 52.0W 100 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 30.5N 54.5W 100 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 32.0N 56.0W 95 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 37.5N 57.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 07/0600Z 48.0N 52.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 08/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW