GOOD VIEW OF CARIBBEAN CONVECTION........

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dixiebreeze
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GOOD VIEW OF CARIBBEAN CONVECTION........

#1 Postby dixiebreeze » Mon Oct 13, 2003 2:13 pm

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Rainband

#2 Postby Rainband » Mon Oct 13, 2003 2:22 pm

Thanks Dixie. Thats the area of concern for me..it's favorable this time of year. Even if the wave/TD develops in the eastern atlantic it will wind up being a fish..most likely!! :roll: Thats the consensus at this point.
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#3 Postby dixiebreeze » Mon Oct 13, 2003 2:34 pm

Rainband, if the Carib. wave develops, it could impact us GOMers more than the CV system -- which will likely be named later tonight.
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caneman

#4 Postby caneman » Mon Oct 13, 2003 2:44 pm

dixie, Looks like an EPAC problem to me. Unless an unforeseen stall occurs.
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#5 Postby stormchazer » Mon Oct 13, 2003 2:55 pm

dixie, Looks like an EPAC problem to me. Unless an unforeseen stall occurs.


Agreed...2pm EDT TWD said its moving west.
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The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast and my opinion alone. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.

Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged

Opinions my own.

Rainband

#6 Postby Rainband » Mon Oct 13, 2003 3:01 pm

caneman wrote:dixie, Looks like an EPAC problem to me. Unless an unforeseen stall occurs.
Was talking about the area not this system..the models show development down the road in the western carib :wink:
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#7 Postby Lowpressure » Mon Oct 13, 2003 3:13 pm

Do not agree that we can surmise that the CV system is a fish just yet, that is a mighty low latitude to get started. Normally at this point in the season you would think fish, but this season has been strange and would not rule anything out at this point.. Agree that the Carib would be more immediate.
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Re: GOOD VIEW OF CARIBBEAN CONVECTION........

#8 Postby Ed25 » Mon Oct 13, 2003 3:20 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html
Another view http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/sate ... 70_100.jpg
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Rainband

#9 Postby Rainband » Mon Oct 13, 2003 3:20 pm

Lowpressure wrote:Do not agree that we can surmise that the CV system is a fish just yet, that is a mighty low latitude to get started. Normally at this point in the season you would think fish, but this season has been strange and would not rule anything out at this point.. Agree that the Carib would be more immediate.
I agree it has been a strange season.. Maybe it will continue to surprise us :o BTW Fredricksburg is a beautiful town. I stop there on my way to PA.. I take 27 to 15 to my sisters in Montoursville :wink:
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#10 Postby stormchazer » Mon Oct 13, 2003 3:28 pm

Lowpressure wrote:
Do not agree that we can surmise that the CV system is a fish just yet, that is a mighty low latitude to get started. Normally at this point in the season you would think fish, but this season has been strange and would not rule anything out at this point.. Agree that the Carib would be more immediate.

I agree it has been a strange season.. Maybe it will continue to surprise us BTW Fredricksburg is a beautiful town. I stop there on my way to PA.. I take 27 to 15 to my sisters in Montoursville


I too agree. Post on this and other boards are quick to say fish. That may come to fruition but with that low of lattitude and even the NHC saying we have a complex steering current, I think it best to wait and see.
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The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast and my opinion alone. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.

Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged

Opinions my own.


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