Tropical Depression nearing storm strength (Adv. and Disc.)

[Stormsfury]

WTNT34 KNHC 140235
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON OCT 13 2003

...DEPRESSION NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...NO THREAT TO LAND...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 39.5 WEST OR ABOUT
1070 MILES...1725 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
ON TUESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION... 9.9 N... 39.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

WTNT44 KNHC 140235
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2003

NEITHER INFRARED NOR MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CLEAR CENTER
POSITION THIS EVENING...WHILE A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 21Z SUGGESTS A
BROAD AND EAST-WEST-ELONGATED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION
AND MOTION ARE LARGELY BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE IMPROVEMENT IN
ORGANIZATION...AS THE CENTER REMAINS WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS COULD
BE AS HIGH AS 30 KT. WITH CONSENSUS DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 KT AS
WELL...THAT WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.

THE 18Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL
NOT MAKE MUCH WESTWARD PROGRESS. THERE IS CURRENTLY A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THIS WEAKNESS WILL BE
REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 45 DEGREES WEST THAT IS
DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE CANADIAN MODEL ALLOWS THE DEPRESSION TO
ESCAPE THIS WEAKNESS AND GET FARTHER WEST...BUT THIS MODEL IS
ALREADY TOO FAR WEST WITH THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT STILL
SHOWS MORE WESTWARD MOTION THAN EITHER THE GFS...UKMET...OR NOGAPS
MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFDL MODEL...WHICH RECURVES THE SYSTEM NEAR 45W.

BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS FORECAST THE DEPRESSION TO REACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERLY SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN THIS AND THE POOR CURRENT ORGANIZATION OF
THE CYCLONE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LESS AGGRESSIVE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 9.9N 39.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 10.0N 40.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 10.4N 41.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 11.0N 42.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 11.5N 42.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 12.0N 43.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 13.0N 44.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 15.0N 44.0W 60 KT