Forecast track from the 11 AM advisory dont pass it from 46w

[cycloneye]

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... v_nt4.html

IT turns TD#19/Nicholas sharply to the north according to the 11 AM advisory track.

[wxman57]

I don't know what's up with the NHC, but they've clearly put the center in the wrong place at 11am. The position at 10.8N is possibly a "fudge" betwen where they THOUGHT it was at 4am and where it actually is now. The center is clearly up near 11.4N/41.6W at 9am CDT, as you can see on the image I just saved below:

<img src="http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/td19.gif">

[cycloneye]

57 unless they are seeing another circulation more to the south is the only explanation.

[Steve H.]

What makes this more interesting is the fact that even though it is further north, it is moving faster than the NHC has its forward speed, and IMHO more westerly. More like 275 rather than 290. Seems like the center is making good headway, rather than drifting; future loops will give us a better idea.

[cycloneye]

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... s_nt4.html

wxman57 here is the discussion of the 11 AM advisory and they say there is a vortex in front of the estimated position.So what position is right now 57 and what center or LLC is the dominant one the one you put with the L and the arrows or another one?

[wxman57]

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp?u=http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/hur_dis_nt4.html

wxman57 here is the discussion of the 11 AM advisory and they say there is a vortex in front of the estimated position.So what position is rigyt now 57 and what center or LLC is the dominant one the one you put with the L and the arrows or another one?

I can't see any other circulation. Low clouds are moving SW-NE across the NHC's "center".

[Renata]

If you read the discussion you will see that the NHC is shooting in the dark and are fixing the center where the models THINK it is rather than they being able to see an actual LLC on satellite.

I sympathise with them and don't place much credence in their public advisories but do appreciate their candour in their discussions.

EDIT:
Actually, this is a bit unfair of me. The 11 am fix is in concert with the QuikScat available at that time.