Still relatively unimpressed with the Caribbean system.

[Stormsfury]

Yes, pressures are relatively low. Yes, the area is climatologically favored. Yes, it just might develop, but IMHO, it won't last long even if it does. One of the biggest reasons is the way the pattern looks to setup in the next 5 days. A large full latitude trough looks to swing out off the Eastern Seaboard in the next couple of days, leaving behind quite a large cool dome of high pressure. The GFS's solution looks to be quite sane in the direction it takes this small low (surface winds are less than 30 kts the whole time on the 12z run) and then the low-level remnants are taken back WEST with very strong WESTERLY FLOW aloft. Rest assured, with the wind shear profiles that are progged across the Caribbean, Florida looks quite safe ... yet again. Now a graphical look at WHY I'm unimpressed.

GFS 950 mb Vorticity -
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi? ... =Animation

GFS 200mb-850mb Shear -- Notice the anticyclone expected to develop DOESN'T stay with the system long enough to sustain a prolonged outflow pattern.
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi? ... =Animation

CMC 925mb Vorticity
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... =Animation

CMC 200mb-850mb Shear - a little more impressive with the light shear profiles deep in the Caribbean, but doesn't have any appreciable vorticity to boot.
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... =Animation

GFDL 950mb Vorticity (I know it's on Nicholas but you can clearly see the Western Caribbean in this shot. The Dynamical Model doesn't see any appreciable "energy" to induce cyclogenesis (though it hasn't been exactly on fire with developing systems this year, so I've taken that into account).
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfdltc2.cgi ... =Animation

Another look at short term GFS- 2 day (48 hours) from now still frames.

GFS MSLP
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_48.gif

GFS 500mb Heights/Vorticity
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/5av_48.gif

GFS 300mb Heights
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/3hh_48.gif

GFS Shear Profiles
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_48.gif


Ok, now to the globals that do develop something appreciable in the Western Caribbean. The NOGAPS is up first.

NOGAPS - 850mb Vorticity - Strong vorticity at the 850mb levels
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/nogapstc2.c ... =Animation

NOGAPS - 200mb - 850mb Shear
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/nogapstc2.c ... =Animation

One thing that isn't seen on this map are the progged surface winds. Since that data is from a pay site, I cannot post these maps ... But the surface winds are NOT very impressive, but still qualifies for a weak tropical storm. Nicholas's winds are more impressive on those progged maps. Right now, it stands alone in it's directional turn towards the NNW. Now remember, the NOGAPS is generally less amplified and a more progressive forecast model. Remember during Isabel that it's solutions were generally the farthest WEST in regards to Isabel generally directing it with a NC/SC border hit for many runs before finally joining up with the consensus.

Now the MM5 Mesoscale Model-Tropical View. Also keeps an identity on Nicholas as well as spinning up the Western Caribbean disturbance. The solution looks strikingly similar to the 12z GFS today at the surface.

MM5 MSLP
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/45km.cgi?ti ... =Animation

MM5 925mb Vorticity - Quite a dynamic look
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/45km.cgi?ti ... =Animation

But now note that the 40m winds have SERIOUSLY backed off from the hurricane depiction it depicted 2 days ago. Just Barely see some tropical storm force winds in isolated areas.

MM5 40M Winds
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/45km.cgi?ti ... =Animation

MM5 40M Winds Accumulated Look
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/45km.cgi?ti ... =Animation

MM5 200-850MB Shear Profiles
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/45km.cgi?ti ... =Animation

EURO develops a closed low in the Western Caribbean as well
Day 3 MSLP
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Now notice how LIGHT the winds are at the 850mb level, I mean less than 10 KTS!
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Reviewing the GFS/CMC ensembles currently.
Thoughts and comments are welcome.

SF

[cycloneye]

SF in other words it has a small window of opportunity according to all those models and it wont be too strong if it develops. Also Florida will not see a threat from this as the pattern will not favor a landfall there.

[Stormsfury]

Correct, cycloneye.

The GFS ensemble members are quite uneventful.

The CMC ensembles in a 10 day loop (16 ensembles members) - Filesize is quite large ... approximately 2 MB large ... immediately, one is probably going to be quite fixated on the CMC10 which shows an EC runner. I don't take stock into that account as it bows up quite a strong ridge and the ensemble trough placement is well west of the general consensus and thusly discarded.

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Temp/TempLoo ... mbles.html