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AFDFLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST TUE OCT 21 2003
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VERY
WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND COOL NIGHTS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE AND USHER IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEASONABLY COOL HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LOOK FOR RECORD AND NEAR RECORD AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY...AND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY UNDER A LARGE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A BIT FROM CURRENT
FORECAST VALUES FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...AS MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH IMPACT AS
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. NOT MUCH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...SO WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR OUR CWA. WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WILL ALSO SEE A BUMP UP IN WINDS WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE FOR MOST PLACES IN THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY. MODELS GENERALLY
CONSISTENT IN REBUILDING A RIDGE OVER ARIZONA STARTING ON MONDAY AND
A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
Dennis
