NICKY IS LOOKING SICK

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
AussieMark
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5858
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:36 pm
Location: near Sydney, Australia

NICKY IS LOOKING SICK

#1 Postby AussieMark » Wed Oct 22, 2003 6:49 am

In this satellite image it appears that Nicholas is really battling to survive to the elements.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HUWV.JPG
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29113
Age: 73
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:
Contact vbhoutex

#2 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Oct 22, 2003 7:11 am

IMO, Nicholas is no longer a TS and in fact, as Wxman57 stated yesterday, has not been for a while. The trough moving East will begin to pick up Nicholas' remains later today and he will be no more. In the Caribbean the low pressure there is trying to organize but will be torn apart by Westerly shear to its' N from the same trough. It appears there is no where for this disturbance to go but E if it develops and wants to survive.
0 likes   
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Image
Top
User avatar
JCT777
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6251
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2002 9:21 am
Location: Spring Mount, PA
Contact:
Contact JCT777

#3 Postby JCT777 » Wed Oct 22, 2003 8:11 am

Yes, Nick is being read his last rites. Time to look toward the next storm possibility.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
stormchazer
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2462
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 12:00 pm
Location: Lakeland, Florida
Contact:
Contact stormchazer

#4 Postby stormchazer » Wed Oct 22, 2003 10:41 am

Stick a fork in Nick. He is done!
0 likes   
The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast and my opinion alone. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.

Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged

Opinions my own.
Top
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23008
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

#5 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 22, 2003 1:29 pm

The question I have is would the NHC upgrade a system with NO convection within 150 miles of a weak LLC and Dvorak estimates of T1.5 to a TS? Well, that's what they are, in effect, doing by continuing to call Nicholas a TS. No consistency whatsoever at the NHC.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146106
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#6 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 22, 2003 1:34 pm

But 57 they will drop the ts status at 5 PM finnally I hope so as the t number is now 1.0.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Lindaloo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 22658
Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2003 10:06 am
Location: Pascagoula, MS

#7 Postby Lindaloo » Wed Oct 22, 2003 2:09 pm

So Nick will be sub-tropical right?
0 likes   
Top
ColdFront77

#8 Postby ColdFront77 » Thu Oct 23, 2003 12:21 am

I honestly agree that Nicholas hasn't been a tropical storm for awhile. Back when I was responding to wxman57's posts I was responding to the current discussion.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: AutoPenalti, MetroMike, Stratton23, TampaWxLurker, TomballEd, Ubuntwo, wzrgirl1 and 120 guests