EURO depicting rough weather ahead in the MR ....

Stormsfury · #1 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Oct 22, 2003 7:43 pm

Day 4, in response to energy diving southeastward through the Great Plains, a 1014mb low forms in the Lower Mississippi Valley, which deepens considerably into a strong 990's low into Ohio on Day 5.

Day 4 MSLP
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Day 5 MSLP
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Day 5 500mb heights - closed 500mb (at 5396DM) over SE MO -
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Here's what quite scary ... The EURO is indicating QUITE A MOISTURE INFLUX into areas EAST of the Appalachain Mountains along with a VERY STRONG LLJ (at 850mb) with a jet maxima of almost 65 kts at 5,000 ft. At 500mb, 15,000 ft ... a strong maxima centered near GSP from the south at 72 kts. And finally at 200mb (Jet Stream Level) SW winds with a large area of 100kt plus winds with a maxima of 129 kts over TLH. Also notice the upper level divergence over the Carolinas northward into the Mid-Atlantic region. The setup is literally SCREAMING potential for severe weather IF the EURO verifies. Here's the best summation ... expect a large squall line to develop with a potential for supercell thunderstorms and an isolated tornado or two just ahead of the squall line. The highest risk areas in this outlook would be from AL/GA to the Carolinas and into the Mid-Atlantic States.

EURO Day 5 Wind Streamlines and Speed 850mb (5,000 ft) ..
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

EURO Day 5 Wind Speed and Streamlines at 500mb (15,000 ft)
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

EURO Day 5 Wind Speed and Streamlines at 200mb (Jet stream Level)
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Anonymous · #2 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Oct 22, 2003 10:59 pm

Good chance of tstorms along the Gulf Coast too...not much of a severe wx threat this far south though.

Colin · #3 Postby **Colin** » Thu Oct 23, 2003 2:08 pm

Cool...Hope I get something!

Mr Bob · #4 Postby **Mr Bob** » Thu Oct 23, 2003 3:01 pm

I look forward to the 12z ECMWF this evening....The GFS seems a little extreme with the negative tilt of the lead SW moving into the Mid Atlantic and all that pacific energy feeding into the back side of the trough...

the severe threat does not look impressive in the SE, there will be some hailers and some gusty downbursts but the tornadic threat seems minimal...It may be too late in the Mid Atlantic before everything gets together but there are aboslutely screaming low and midlevel winds...850 winds exceed 50kts into New Engalnd...

It appears New England will be warmer than the TN Valley on Monday and Tuesday....If you buy the GFS lock, stock and barrel...there will even be snow in Nashville on Tuesday...Far more likely in the Southern Apps given the biases of the GFS but it is getting closer to verification time. I would not be surprised to see some rain/snow mix on the Cumberland Plateau either! At any rate, it will be interesting to see how much the Euro backs this up tonight...

#5 Postby **wx247** » Thu Oct 23, 2003 5:03 pm

Good analysis all.

I love reading the discussions. Keep up the good work.

Stormsfury · #6 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Oct 23, 2003 8:06 pm

Mr Bob wrote:I look forward to the 12z ECMWF this evening....The GFS seems a little extreme with the negative tilt of the lead SW moving into the Mid Atlantic and all that pacific energy feeding into the back side of the trough...

the severe threat does not look impressive in the SE, there will be some hailers and some gusty downbursts but the tornadic threat seems minimal...It may be too late in the Mid Atlantic before everything gets together but there are aboslutely screaming low and midlevel winds...850 winds exceed 50kts into New Engalnd...

It appears New England will be warmer than the TN Valley on Monday and Tuesday....If you buy the GFS lock, stock and barrel...there will even be snow in Nashville on Tuesday...Far more likely in the Southern Apps given the biases of the GFS but it is getting closer to verification time. I would not be surprised to see some rain/snow mix on the Cumberland Plateau either! At any rate, it will be interesting to see how much the Euro backs this up tonight...

850mb winds are strongest in Western PA just shy of 50 kts. The winds are more southerly with decent convergence from South Carolina northward. What's interesting though is the surface low is now depicted over GSP (1004mb). Looks like a pretty decent setup now in the Carolinas, however, with the orientation of the trough and the winds, the tornado threat looks minimal (at this time). Even more so, the RH's are much higher, though the 850mb temperatures are still quite warm. What really scares me is the potential for backing of surface winds in the lower Southeast (Maybe SE GA and the Eastern Carolinas) and any discreet s/w rounding the base of the full latitude trough. There's still quite a bit of upper divergence aloft. Obviously on Day 5, the surface low is further east. Still a decent setup but marinal influences and a lack of instability may hinder severe wx points northward, despite the setup. That's quite a velocity at 850mb at 74.5 kts over NJ. Strongest core of 500mb back over Western PA (nearly 100kts) and at 200mb levels, the strongest core of jet stream level winds of 145 kts over the Carolinas with a decent swath of 100 kt plus across the East, but NOT conducive for tornadoes (unidirectional shear). Still looks to be more of a squall line event with wind damage potential and maybe, hail, and an isolated threat of a tornado or two.

Day 4 850mb Wind Streamlines and Speed.
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Day 4 500mb Wind Streamlines and Speed
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Day 4 200mb Wind Streamlines and Speed
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Day 4 850mb Temperatures/MSLP
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

EURO Day 5 Wind Streamlines and Speed 850mb (5,000 ft) ..
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

EURO Day 5 Wind Speed and Streamlines at 500mb (15,000 ft)
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

EURO Day 5 Wind Speed and Streamlines at 200mb (Jet stream Level)
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

EURO Day 5 850mb temp/MSLP
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Stormsfury · #7 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Oct 23, 2003 8:52 pm

Interesting ... 12z UKMET places a 1002 mb low over GSP as well and deepens to 986 mb in Eastern Canada ... developing a secondary low around the Southeast with closely matches the 12z GFS.

http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_ame ... _panel.gif

The 12z Canadian is much weaker than UKMET/EURO/GFS with a 1011 mb low, and stronger/farther west with the secondary low ... IMHO, the Canadian is not handling the evolving solution very well ...

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_am ... _panel.gif

Amanzi · #8 Postby **Amanzi** » Fri Oct 24, 2003 8:24 am

NWS JAX
WX GOES DOWNHILL THRU THE DAY SUN. APPEARS THE GFS AND ETA ARE
HINTING AT A DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE CUTTING THRU THE ARE AS STRONG
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DEVELOPS A SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL GA. THERE IS VERY
GOOD MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE.
THE ONLY QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP PATTERN AND
THE RISK OF SVR WX. LOOKS LIKE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL FAVOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS LATE SUN AFTN AND SUN
NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. OTHER SPECIFICS WILL
LIKELY BE IRONED OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF FCST PACKAGES

Is the threat of svr wx mentioned in my forecast discussion from the same system you are talking about SF?

ColdFront77 · #9 Postby **ColdFront77** » Fri Oct 24, 2003 3:00 pm

Excuse me for answering, Bron.

The cold front that is expected to move through Florida early next week is attached to the system forecast to affect the entire eastern United States.

Every system that affects the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and/or Northeast tends to have a trailing cold front the moves through our area.

Amanzi · #10 Postby **Amanzi** » Fri Oct 24, 2003 6:24 pm

Thanks for explaining Tom

ColdFront77 · #11 Postby **ColdFront77** » Fri Oct 24, 2003 8:29 pm

You're welcome, Bron and sorry (once again), Mike.

Stormsfury · #12 Postby **Stormsfury** » Fri Oct 24, 2003 11:05 pm

Amanzi wrote:
NWS JAX
WX GOES DOWNHILL THRU THE DAY SUN. APPEARS THE GFS AND ETA ARE
HINTING AT A DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE CUTTING THRU THE ARE AS STRONG
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DEVELOPS A SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL GA. THERE IS VERY
GOOD MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE.
THE ONLY QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP PATTERN AND
THE RISK OF SVR WX. LOOKS LIKE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL FAVOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS LATE SUN AFTN AND SUN
NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. OTHER SPECIFICS WILL
LIKELY BE IRONED OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF FCST PACKAGES

Is the threat of svr wx mentioned in my forecast discussion from the same system you are talking about SF?

Yep.

ColdFront77 wrote:Excuse me for answering, Bron.

The cold front that is expected to move through Florida early next week is attached to the system forecast to affect the entire eastern United States.

Every system that affects the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and/or Northeast tends to have a trailing cold front the moves through our area.

No problem, Tom. Time Warner was out all day and has no access until now ... going to sleep ... gotta work at 6 am.

SF

#13 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sat Oct 25, 2003 10:44 am

That threat is now in our area too. We have heavy storms moving in right now and we aren't expecting the worst till later today. Hope it doesn't get too rough.

Here's the radar link: http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... khgx.shtml

We'll keep you posted. I live just N of the red horizontal line and west of the loop around the city.

southerngale · #14 Postby **southerngale** » Sat Oct 25, 2003 12:27 pm

Yep David, here too. I was awakened this morning to a good loud thunderstorm and it's been one after another since early this morning. Wind is whipping around and we're in a severe thunderstorm watch too.

I have to admit I'm enjoying this weather. I just love the sound of hard rain with lots of thunder. :cheesy:

Rainband · #15 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Oct 25, 2003 5:11 pm

I forgot what rain looks like :lol:

Rainband · #16 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Oct 25, 2003 5:14 pm

Looks like the Severe threat at least here has dimisnished. http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... ort_Richey

Stormsfury · #17 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Oct 25, 2003 10:54 pm

Yes, Rainband ... it's diminished greatly though the potential still exists for a squall line embedded within a large area of convection possibly in South Carolina in a couple of days. Strong LLJ of 35 kts and strong Q-G forcing but weak instability suggests a potential for a squall line to accompany the front. However, it more than not looks more beneficial to bring much needed rains to areas that have been quite dry.

However, the overall setup which looked a few days ago of a potential severe weather maker has greatly diminished ... reason, the mishandling of the Pacific Jet. Earlier progs indicated a CLOSED 500 mb low and a strong NEG TILT trough ... however, with the mishandling of the PAC jet, the trough never goes NEG TILT and furthermore, there's no closed 500 mb low ... I pretty much jumped the gun in regards to the setup. Since observations in the Northern Pacific are sparse (lack of data) (?), situations like this can happen from time to time.

SF

EURO depicting rough weather ahead in the MR ....

EURO depicting rough weather ahead in the MR ....

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