Hmm ... MM5 becoming quite bullish with W Caribbean again.

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Stormsfury
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Hmm ... MM5 becoming quite bullish with W Caribbean again.

#1 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Oct 23, 2003 5:43 pm

Right now, the MM5 stands alone in this scenario bringing that area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean to a HURRICANE in 5 days. There's no doubt that surface pressures are low, and there's no doubt that that area is favored for this time of year. Notice on satellite imagery that CAA has reached well into the NW Caribbean and quite a bit of SW flow north of 15º. So there's no doubt that I doubt the MM5 at this time. (Got all that? :lol: )

MM5 MSLP - it's depiction of quite a deepening system close to the coast slowly moving NNW.
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/45km.cgi?ti ... =Animation

MM5 925mb Vorticity
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/45km.cgi?ti ... =Animation

MM5 Accumulated Winds at 40m ...
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/45km.cgi?ti ... =Animation

The GFS does spin up a low pressure similarly to the MM5, but MUCH weaker (surface winds aren't very impressive). The NOGAPS does the same and then ejecting the low quickly eastward across Eastern Cuba and into the Southeastern most Bahamas by Day 7 (as a weak entity) (GFS does this as well.

If anything comes of this ... it'll be VERY slow to occur.

SF
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 23, 2003 5:52 pm

SF we have to see how the next runs of those models come and see a trend towards possible development or if they back off especially the MM5.
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#3 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Oct 23, 2003 6:00 pm

cycloneye wrote:SF we have to see how the next runs of those models come and see a trend towards possible development or if they back off especially the MM5.


The MM5 in the last five days have been a roller coaster with regards to the Caribbean System ...

From progging in order of Days ago.

5 days ago - Hurricane
4 days ago - Tropical Storm
3 days ago - Tropical Depression
2 days ago - Low Pressure
Yesterday - Tropical Storm
Today - Hurricane

The Tropical MM5 isn't exactly what I would use for looking into the Tropics but I have to at least give it a looksee, especially in regards to how it handled Erika.

Meanstwhile, I'm waiting on the EURO and looking at the severe wx prospects for the Southeastern US.

SF
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#4 Postby lilbump3000 » Thu Oct 23, 2003 7:09 pm

Looks like they spinning up a nice strong low pressure center, could that be a hurricane waiting to develop down there.
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#5 Postby Steve H. » Thu Oct 23, 2003 7:42 pm

Tonight's Euro shows a low pop up in the W. Caribbean south of Jamaica on the last frame (think it was day 7), so its still on the charts. 8-)
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#6 Postby Anonymous » Thu Oct 23, 2003 8:20 pm

Euro still slightly less aggressive than it was yesterday....but when it's that far out it doesn't matter much.
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#7 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Oct 23, 2003 8:23 pm

Steve H. wrote:Tonight's Euro shows a low pop up in the W. Caribbean south of Jamaica on the last frame (think it was day 7), so its still on the charts. 8-)


Actually looks more closed off on that timeframe (notice it looks like it's moving EASTWARD ...

(Just off the map, the 850mb winds are in the 30 kt range.)

http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

But also notice the 850mb Wind streamlines ... I don't necessary like to see that, however, 200mb winds progged by the EURO are VERY LIGHT where the system is progged to be ...

850mb Wind Streamlines at Day 7
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

200mb Wind Streamlines and Speed at Day 7- Anticyclonic circ. over the Southwestern Caribbean.
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

200mb Wind speed and MSLP at Day 7 --- Surface Low sitting under an upper anticyclone ... Hmmm.
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Day 8-10 average ... My interpretation is that it's going to move NNE and be in a position somewhere in the vicinity between Eastern Cuba to Western Dominica.
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest
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#8 Postby CocoaBill » Thu Oct 23, 2003 8:57 pm

The ANV loop looks like its on its way.............. NW Carib.........


http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/model ... _loop.html
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#9 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Oct 23, 2003 9:03 pm

CocoaBill, here's a longer 10 day loop ... the GFS progs the low is absorbed by the 2nd surface low that develops in response to the NEG TILT trough (and closed 500mb low) over the Ohio Valley moving N into Canada.

GFS MSLP loop
http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/loop/mrf_pres_loop.gif

GFS 10 day 500mb/MSLP loop
http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/loop/mrf_500p_loop.gif

Gimme that setup in the heart of winter with some cold air and I'd be quite happy in CHS.
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