Interesting Local discussion

[Rainband]

Although it is the GFS


000
FXUS62 KTBW 270130
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
830 PM EST SUN OCT 26 2003

.CURRENTLY...FRONT JUST ALONG THE AL/FL BORDER WITH PRE FRONTAL
SQUALL LINE JUST WEST OF OUR OUTERMOST MARINE ZONES. AHEAD OF THIS
LINE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF TAMPA.
OTHERWISE HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS OVER THE GULF SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
THE WEST COAST. FRONT BEHIND THIS LINE IS SLOWING DOWN AND LOSING ITS
PUNCH. THIS FEATURE HANDLED WELL BY PREVIOUS FORECAST SO NO MAJOR
CHANGES PLANNED. TEMPS ARE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...ONE OR TWO DEGREES
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY TWEAKS. ALSO WILL
LEAVE IN ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES OVER NIGHT IN CASE ANY PART OF THE
LINE SURVIVES TO MAKE IT ONSHORE.

LATEST GFS HAS A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF ON THE FRONT AHEAD OF A
STRONG SHORTWAVE. THE MODEL INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE FAIRLY
WELL WITH THE LATEST RAOBS BUT NOT CERTAIN IT WILL DEEPEN SO
QUICKLY...SOMETHING TO WATCH.

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

[Stormsfury]

Interestingly, earlier, other forecast discussions were seeing obvious convective feedback problems with the GFS.

[Rainband]

Interestingly, earlier, other forecast discussions were seeing obvious convective feedback problems with the GFS.

Do you mean it's not feedback and now they realized it??

[stormchazer]

That is interesting. The Ruskin office doesn't usually mention that kind of stuff unless development is imminent. We'll see.

[Stormsfury]

Interestingly, earlier, other forecast discussions were seeing obvious convective feedback problems with the GFS.

Do you mean it's not feedback and now they realized it??

Not sure now, Johnathan. But some of the previous GFS runs had obvious convective feedback problems.

[Toni - 574]

That is interesting. The Ruskin office doesn't usually mention that kind of stuff unless development is imminent. We'll see.

Your right SC, they usually don't. Hey, all it took was for me to mention on CFHC that it may not happen after all, since I have been supporting a system forming in the caribbean for a while now. Let's see what happens...