Are Recent Trends Offering Winter Hints?

[donsutherland1]

As anticipated (per the Western Trough-Eastern Ridge configuration that was expected to start the month), the first 10 days of November have seen temperatures average above normal in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern states.

<b>Select Cities:</b>
Boston: +1.3 degrees
New York City: +3.7 degrees
Washington, DC: +6.9 degrees

However, these averages mask the real variation that has occurred in temperatures. The beginning of the month saw near record to record warmth. Recently, some cities have experience near record to record cold.

<b>Extremes for the November 1-10, 2003 Period:</b>
Boston: 76-27
New York City: 79-29
Washington, DC: 81-31

This may be hint #1: Expect significant variation in temperatures this winter.

The last three cold spells have been somewhat longer than initially suggested by the computer guidance and somewhat sharper than anticipated.

This may be hint #2: Look for periods of cold to run somewhat longer than first anticipated on the modeling and for the chill to be somewhat sharper than shown.

At this point in time, the pattern is nearing a reamplification, which will likely occur sometime during the November 13-18 period. What follows afterward is somewhat uncertain.

However, based on analogs, synoptic patterns, and computer guidance, it appears that the amplification will ease somewhat after November 18, but that the pattern will not exactly become fully progressive.

Consequently, there could be some interesting developments, especially with regard to temperature swings during the second half of the month. For what it's worth, some preliminary ideas for highest and lowest temperatures for three cities follow:

<b>Estimated November 16-30, 2003 Extremes:</b>
Boston: 63-23
New York City: 64-26
Washington, DC: 67-26

Confidence in these figures is probably somewhat higher than normal given the tendency for sharp swings in temperature that has been exhibited since the beginning of October and the coming amplification that will perhaps only slowly abate. Whether it fades gradually only to become reamplified or eventually becomes progressive remains to be seen.

It does appear that the NAO will probably go negative near mid-month and then perhaps remain somewhat negative or neutral at least into the Thanksgiving holiday week. Right now, I do not see the NAO going into the proverbial tank during this period.

Nevertheless, it appears that readings will probably average near normal to somewhat above normal in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. However, central and northern New England could see readings near normal to somewhat below normal. Again, as was the case during the first ten days of November, the bigger story will probably be the signficant variation in temperatures.

In addition, while in the past there have been major East Coast snowstorms during the second half of November, I do not believe that this will be the case this November.

<b>Notable Snowstorms (November 16-20):</b>
<i>November 19-21, 1798:</i> Major nor'easter affected Maryland to Maine. New York City was buried under 18" snow.
<i>November 24-25, 1938:</i> An early signficant snowfall blanketed Virginia to New England. Washington, DC received 7" and parts of Connecticut saw a foot of snow.
<i>November 26-27, 1898:</i> A severe nor'easter lashed New England with high winds and heavy precipitation. Boston received 12" of snow.

Based on a combination of analog years and also Novembers that started in similar fashion (either with extreme warmth early on and/or a sharp chill during the November 8-10 period), it appears that snowfall during the November 16-30 period could fall into the following ranges:

Boston: 0.0"-1.0" (Extremes in dataset: 0.0"/2.8"; Years with T or more: 11/12)
New York City: 0.0"-0.6" (Extremes in dataset: 0.0"/1.1"; Years with T or more: 8/12)
Washington, DC: 0.0"-0.8" (Extremes in dataset: 0.0"/1.6"; Years with T or more: 8/12)

[JCT777]

Thanks for the info, Don. Looks like it will be an up-and-down winter (temp wise) if recent trends continue.

[donsutherland1]

JCT77,

It does look like the winter will see much variability. This variability could add to the excitement and anticipation...

[Stormsfury]

Such variability could lead to unseasonable severe weather outbreaks and big snows all in the same week ... sometimes from the same system ...

IF November is bringing us any precursor, it's going to be quite a roller coaster ride this winter, with probably no real prolonged WARM or COLD situations.

SF

[GAStorm]

Such variability could lead to unseasonable severe weather outbreaks and big snows all in the same week ... sometimes from the same system ...

IF November is bringing us any precursor, it's going to be quite a roller coaster ride this winter, with probably no real prolonged WARM or COLD situations.

SF

I definitely agree SF! This winter could feature anything from tornadoes to blizzards the way the temps have been lately!

[Guest]

This is something it looks like most agree on now for the up comming winter and even though i have yet to see any snow (Maybe Wednesday night) so far everything is off to a great start imo with so much action going on!

[donsutherland1]

Stormsfury,

You wrote, "If November is bringing us any precursor, it's going to be quite a roller coaster ride this winter, with probably no real prolonged WARM or COLD situations." I completely agree on this point. The absence of a very strong Pacific signal (N or W-, with Regional anomalies greater in 3.4 than 1+2) reinforces the idea that the variation we have see thus far will likely continue. The rise in the QBO and shift to West (February or March) may ensure that the winter ends with some opportunities for cold and storminess.

[Stormsfury]

Stormsfury,

You wrote, "If November is bringing us any precursor, it's going to be quite a roller coaster ride this winter, with probably no real prolonged WARM or COLD situations." I completely agree on this point. The absence of a very strong Pacific signal (N or W-, with Regional anomalies greater in 3.4 than 1+2) reinforces the idea that the variation we have see thus far will likely continue. The rise in the QBO and shift to West (February or March) may ensure that the winter ends with some opportunities for cold and storminess.

I believe the QBO numbers had to be done manually for October since the NCEP computers went down ... I still see CPC hasn't updated October's QBO indicy as of yet, but I believe it was -20.35 .. RNS and I on another thread were talking about this very thing that it seems pretty clear that the ATL signals are clearly much stronger than the PAC signals, and the upcoming El Niño may only serve to enhance a decent winter for snow lovers across MOST of the US ...

[NJwx15]

Such variability could lead to unseasonable severe weather outbreaks and big snows all in the same week ... sometimes from the same system ...

IF November is bringing us any precursor, it's going to be quite a roller coaster ride this winter, with probably no real prolonged WARM or COLD situations.

SF

this is a great topic and great imformation from everyone. Don, im interested to hear what morning u expect D.C. and NYC to reach 26º. It appears according to the guys over at WWBB that the midatlantic soutward atleast will be under the influence of the SE ridge with no real cold air in sight till atleast the end of the month. There is the amplification swinging through on thursday and Friday but I doubt your referring to this as when these cities go into the 20s, right? By the way, highly agree on all that you have said and stormsfury i agree with you too, only i disagree when you say "no real prolonged WARm and COLD situations" I feel that we will have those times this winter, although variation will rule over everything. Look for February to have a prolonged period of cold and snow if you ask me. But I do agree that the winter will be accompanied by short/sharp cold shots coming through for a lot of the winter. Timing of storms is gonna be huuuuuge this winter, lets hope it works out for the better.

-Chris

[donsutherland1]

Chris,

Bear in mind the risk of error associated with longer-range forecasting. With regard to the 26-degree readings, I believe the best possibility concerns sometime during the 11/19-21 timeframe.

1) It will immediately follow a reamplification of the pattern.
2) It will likely see a neutral to negative NAO.

There are some hints that another shot of cold could arrive around or just after 11/27, though the GFS 12Z isn't buying any of this. This is speculative at this point in time. The 11/19-21 period looks best.

Bear in mind, if I'm off by 2-3 degrees, from this far out, I won't be all that disappointed. At the same time, I won't be as happy as if I nailed the exact figures. The temperatures are more for a general idea of the continuing variability that is likely during the second half of November.

[Stormsfury]

this is a great topic and great imformation from everyone. Don, im interested to hear what morning u expect D.C. and NYC to reach 26º. It appears according to the guys over at WWBB that the midatlantic soutward atleast will be under the influence of the SE ridge with no real cold air in sight till atleast the end of the month. There is the amplification swinging through on thursday and Friday but I doubt your referring to this as when these cities go into the 20s, right? By the way, highly agree on all that you have said and stormsfury i agree with you too, only i disagree when you say "no real prolonged WARm and COLD situations" I feel that we will have those times this winter, although variation will rule over everything. Look for February to have a prolonged period of cold and snow if you ask me. But I do agree that the winter will be accompanied by short/sharp cold shots coming through for a lot of the winter. Timing of storms is gonna be huuuuuge this winter, lets hope it works out for the better.

NJ, one of things I am not sure of, especially regarding any real prolonged situations is the mean storm track ... I really see a lot of differing storm tracks this year ... hence, where everyone kinda gets into the action this winter (well, MOST everyone) ... sorry Floridians ...

Depending on the forecasted El Niño outputs you see, would vary greatly oh what kind of outlook would be normally associated with such ... many of the Niño forecasts I've seen are for an El Niño WEST scenario ... and with the ATL signals clearly more dominant (as evidenced by this year's hurricane season for the EPAC vs. ATL), this could become quite an interesting winter ... I do not really favor ANY analog year right now ... b/c of such variability already evidenced by November ... heck, even Alaska joined in with some record warmth ... (another thread on here, and strangely enough, broke a record set back in 1979).

Obviously, the AGCM Forecast looks like a winter weather lover's dream setting up with a -NAO and a fairly +PNA especially from Jan-April 2004.

SST anomalies


20mb Height Anomalies


Monthly Temp Anomalies


Monthly Rainfall Anomalies


Looking at the variability from month to month, especially towards February could lead me to believe at a more suppressed storm track (could get quite good for regions further south) ...

Gonna be an interesting winter ...

SF

[Guest]

By the looks of those temps it looks to be below normal for here and precip above normal (Dec,Jan-Feb).................Jan-Feb-Mar though shows normal precip with below normal temps????? By that alone keeps me happy enough which as well agrees with my winter outlook very well!!!!!!
IMHO looks to be a very good winter for alot of us snow hounds.............Gonna be one fun ride!

[WEATHER53]

I think weather since about 10/10 has been reflective or what is in store. Most of the low pressures will continue along and west of applchsn, moving along ny state/pa border such that points north of that stay cold and points south stay mild. I think Boston, Albany will end up at or below normal for Nov/Dec while DCA is +2 for each month. However, will no la nina, like 01-02, the intrusions of cold air will not be prohibited. We had a decent cold shot in October and last weekend also, I failed to pick up on this correctly and now have adjusted, but the vast majority of the next 45 days, on order of 70%, will be above normal in temps for DC area. Then what happens next we do not have a consensus on . I think Jan continues mild unitl 1/20 then sharply colder for Feb into March. KA thinks Jan is cold and then Feb is mild. We agree that once cold the systems will be supressive with a very real possiblilty that rRchmond and even Norfolk have as much snow as Boson or NYC. So for DC, too mild for Dec and possibly Jan and then when cold enough the systems are supressive thus 12-15" total snow for the season, below normal, but not a snow shut-out like 01-02.

[Tip]

I can't find the link, but there was a chart posted on another board that showed that the chances of the weather continuing to be the same were very low if you used October or November to extrapolate. However, once into December or January the chances of that type of weather continuing shot up markedly. I don't believe any pattern will reveal itself til mid December. Just an opinion.

Are there any analogs for years where a east coast trough/ western ridge pattern broke down in October after lasting almost a year with the approximate teleconnections in place?

[donsutherland1]

Tip,

The information pertained to October pattern having the lowest tendency of those for any given month to persist and discussed the possibility of a November reversal. The article was posted at Intellicast (http://intellicast.com/DrDewpoint/Library/1411/) but has since been pulled. I don't know the reason it was not archived.

[donsutherland1]

As of 3 pm, a wild storm continued to rake the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley states northward and much of Ontario, Quebec, and New Brunswick with high winds--those venturing outside would probably argue that severe blowing hair warnings should also be in effect.

In parts of Quebec, showers and rain have now changed to snow and moderate to heavy snow will likely move into the Montreal and Quebec City areas as the afternoon and evening progress. Some areas could pick up beaucoup de neige. Parts of northern New England should receive an appreciable snowfall.

As of 3 pm, some conditions included:

Boston: 51 Partly Sunny (29.16S)--Gusts to 35 mph
Burlington: 41 Light Sleet (28.97F)--Gusts to 31 mph
New York City: 47 Partly Sunny (29.45R)--Gusts to 49 mph
Richmond: 52 Partly Sunny (29.86R)--Gusts to 36 mph


This <b>amplification</b>, which was foreseen by a number of us--<b>King of Weather</b>, for example--signals what I believe is the start of a transitional period.

To be sure, after the brief cold shot in the wake of today's storm (Friday and Saturday will be the coldest days), milder weather will return. I expect another amplification perhaps 5-6 days down the road followed by another shot of cold air.

This next cold shot continues to draw reasonable support from the Canadian Ensembles.

In addition, the turn to negative for the NAO on which I was keying has just occurred. I anticipate that it will remain negative for at least the next week to ten days, though not necessarily strongly negative.

Hence, I continue to believe that the 11/19-21 cold shot will be decent, with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s from Washington, DC to Boston (colder outside the big cities, of course).

This cold shot will not mark the start of a new pattern, however. In fact--and I can hear the curses cascading at me--I believe a ridge along or off the East Coast will try to make a comeback following this cold shot. Hence, readings are likely to climb to above normal to much above normal levels for a spell afterward. At this time, I am confident that 60s are likely at the peak of the warmth in both New York City and Boston.

Finally, there remain hints that maybe--just maybe--a more important change to a colder regime could begin to unfold around 11/27-29, possibly following another important storm. However, there are arguments against this, most notably indications that the Pacific jet could again strengthen around that timeframe.

[Tip]

I have heard a few long range forecasters mention the PAC Jet being energized or as some say roaring. This conclusion leads them to a warmer than normal East Coast November and maybe December since a any attempt at a west coast ridge will be beaten down by the jet. Without an even weak EL NINO to fuel the PAC jet or as sometimes referred to as the Pineapple Express in El Nino years, there must be something else involved. The only thing that stands out in the SST anomoly map is some higher than normal temps around the Bering Sea and off the NE coast. So I not sure why the EPAC jet would have an overwhelming influence on any long term weather pattern. Maybe I'm missing something? Thanks for any comments.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/c ... anomv2.gif

Oh by the way this latest Quebec Bomb has created one of the worst windstorms in central Jersey in recent history. Still around 980 mil with another trough spinning around the main storm entering western NY at this time
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/weather/difax/3096.gif

[donsutherland1]

Tip,

With regard to the Pacific Jet, my reference refers to a possible new up pulse that would be temporary. I am not suggesting that the Pacific jet will dominate for much of the winter ala a modate El Nino (W) and apologize for any confusion I might have created. In fact, I believe that the Pacific signals will be fairly weak this winter even with a possible borderline El Nino (N/W-). Warm anomalies should also be greater in 3.4 than 1+2.

Overall, I'm believe the odds more strongly favor a return of cold to the East starting in the 11/27-29 period.

[Tip]

Don,

Sorry for the confusion. I wasn't specially referring to you forecasting a prolonged PAC Jet. When you mentioned it in you post the thought of other references to it just came to mind. With the indicies lining up (-NAO,+PNA and -AO in the next two weeks, we will see if the east turns colder and snowier. However, from my experience with the 2000-2001 nigntmare winter, it is not always a lock lol.

[donsutherland1]

With regard to two possible opportunities for colder weather, I had previously </b>noted</b> prospects for the 11/19-21 period.

The latest data indicates that any chill behind a possible mid-week storm will not be impressive. In fact, it could be minimal.

See the 850 mb temperature evolution for the past 4 days:

<img src="http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attachment.php?s=&postid=127479">

Cold air is retreating from the eastern U.S. In addition, it is unlikely that the slowly advancing cold air in western Canada will come into the eastern U.S. this week.

Hence, based on this information, the strongest push of cold air now appears to be that which should occur starting during the 11/27-29 period. The Pacific Jet will need to be watched, as it could help blunt or delay this push of cold, as well.