TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLLOK FOR QUEENSLAND

[AussieMark]

2003-04 Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for Queensland

The Regional Director of the Commonwealth Bureau of Meteorology in Queensland, Mr Jim Davidson, said today that tropical cyclone activity in the Coral Sea and Gulf of Carpentaria should be close to normal this coming season. The most likely scenario is between 3 and 6 cyclones with a good chance that 1 or 2 of these will cross the coast.

Mr Davidson added that the best prospects for normal seasonal rains was in the Tropics. Near average rains are predicted for the warmer months in southern parts of the state.

The seasonal outlook for Queensland is largely based on past cyclone behaviour and consideration of trends in both the Southern Oscillation Index [SOI] and Sea Surface Temperatures [SSTs]. In recent times, the SOI has been fluctuating around zero with no evidence from global climate models of an El Nino or La Nina developing. This is supported by the SSTs in the central equatorial Pacific which are near average or a little above for this time of year.

It should be noted however that the SOI has been a relatively poor guide to cyclone numbers in the past few seasons. During this time, cyclone formation was hampered by an unfavourable large scale circulation pattern over the Western Pacific.

Mr Davidson explained that, at this stage, it is impossible to predict the likely onset, path or intensity of any individual cyclones that might occur. Historically under neutral environmental conditions, the first cyclone of the season has often occurred in December, and on a few occasions, in late November.

The last decade or so has been relatively quiet in terms of significant cyclone impacts in Queensland. The situation for the past two seasons has been particularly unusual in that no cyclones crossed the east coast.

Mr Davidson emphasised that it's only a matter of time before a severe cyclone strikes a coastal community. The most important advice the Bureau can give people is to be well informed of the dangers posed by tropical cyclones, understand the warning service, and be sensibly prepared.

Throughout the next month or so, the Bureau is joining with several State Government departments in conducting pre-season Severe Weather and Flood Seminars in major Queensland cities at risk from tropical cyclones. The seminars are targeting disaster management officials at all levels and will have a storm tide and flooding focus. Media opportunities will be available at these seminars.

On Thursday 6 November, a meeting of the Queensland Tropical Cyclone Consultative Committee [QTCCC] will be held in Townsville, which is the first time the committee has met outside Brisbane. The primary role of the QTCCC which was established in 1995 is to recommend measures to the State Counter Disaster Organisation to mitigate the effects of tropical cyclones on Queensland