Timing of the strong storm system allows for a potential ...

[Stormsfury]

of a stronger threat for the Eastern Carolinas/SE VA tomorrow during MAX heating of the day ... Below is the discussions from the SPC since I didn't have much time to put together an outlook with too much data to sift through and too much going on tonight ...

...ERN GA AND CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...

LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SLY AS SFC RIDGE OVER THE NERN U.S. SHIFTS EWD AND WARM FRONT ADVANCES NWD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY RESIDING OFF THE FL/SC/GA COAST TO ADVECT NWD. AS THIS OCCURS...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DESTABILIZE NWD WITH TIME WEDNESDAY. HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS AND POSSIBLY INTO SERN VA WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM
500 TO 1000 J/KG. FARTHER NWD...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE MORE
LIMITED DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS AND LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS. STRONG-SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM PARTS OF WRN VA SWD THROUGH THE WRN CAROLINAS...ERN GA AND NRN FL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY...MAINLY ALONG GA/SC/NC/VA PORTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR DISCRETE STORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY BE MORE UNSTABLE.

PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE WIND DAMAGE WITH LEWP/BOW ECHO STRUCTURES ALONG THE LINE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE OR WITH DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING IN WARM SECTOR. BEST TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS INTO SERN VA WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL LIKELY BE MORE BACKED E OF SURFACE LOW AND WHERE POTENTIAL FOR MORE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST.

FARTHER W FROM ERN TN INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS...IF LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT...ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS DEVELOPING IN STEEPER LAPSE RATES ENVIRONMENT NEAR COLD CORE OF UPPER LOW.

..DIAL.. 11/18/2003

Continuation for Wednesday ...

...SYNOPSIS...

A MID LEVEL JET WILL DROP SEWD INTO BASE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS THE SHORTWAVE MIGRATES ESEWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN TAKE ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AS IT EJECTS ENEWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE MORE SWD PLACEMENT OF SURFACE LOW BY THE ETA VERSUS THE AVN. BY MID DAY A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES SWD THROUGH WRN VA TO A SURFACE LOW OVER NC THEN FARTHER SWD THROUGH ERN GA AND INTO NRN FL. SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY FROM SC ESEWD INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.

...ERN GA AND CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...

LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SLY AS SFC RIDGE OVER THE NERN U.S. SHIFTS EWD AND WARM FRONT ADVANCES NWD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY RESIDING OFF THE FL/SC/GA COAST TO ADVECT NWD. AS THIS OCCURS...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DESTABILIZE NWD WITH TIME WEDNESDAY. HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS AND POSSIBLY INTO SERN VA WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM
500 TO 1000 J/KG. FARTHER NWD...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE MORE
LIMITED DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS AND LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS. STRONG-SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM PARTS OF WRN VA SWD THROUGH THE WRN CAROLINAS...ERN GA AND NRN FL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY...MAINLY ALONG GA/SC/NC/VA PORTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR DISCRETE STORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY BE MORE UNSTABLE.

PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE WIND DAMAGE WITH LEWP/BOW ECHO STRUCTURES ALONG THE LINE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE OR WITH DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING IN WARM SECTOR. BEST TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS INTO SERN VA WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL LIKELY BE MORE BACKED E OF SURFACE LOW AND WHERE POTENTIAL FOR MORE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST.

FARTHER W FROM ERN TN INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS...IF LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT...ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS DEVELOPING IN STEEPER LAPSE RATES ENVIRONMENT NEAR COLD CORE OF UPPER LOW.

..DIAL.. 11/18/2003