WINTER 2003/04 FORECAST GRAPHICS (DEC and JAN)>>>&g

[RNS]

December 2003...



A: Vast positively tilted Trough will remain in place across eastern alaska and westren canada over the first 15 days of the December, helping to promotte a neutral PNA signal. it is unclear whether or not this will reverse its self

B: NAO Negative - Possibly strongly so. Blocking may at times spread across the Davis strait, Baffen Island, northern Quebec and into northeast canada.

C: strong 50/50 low. this should also help maintain the blocking to the north of it, enhancing the -NAO singal. the presence of the 50/50 low is increasingly supported by the cxooling of the SSTA near Newfoundland.

D: Above normal snowfall.

E: Much below Normal temperatures (-1.5 to -2.5F)

F: Below Normal temperatures (-0.5 to -1.5F)

G: below Normal Snowfall

H: Above Normal temperatures, and much drier conditions.

I: Much above normal snowfall

J: below normal snowfall first 15 days, then above to much above normal snowfall in southern sections and near normal snowfall north.

January 2004...



A: Pacific pattern Reverses, strong alleutian low develops.

B: blocking develops downstream from the strong Alleutian low across western canada promoting a solidly (though not overwhelmingly) positive PNA pattern.

C: NAO strongly negative.

D: Strong North Atlantic Blocking building westward may ocassionally hook up with the western north america ridge forcing an extreme southward displacement of the PV in the means until the pattern breaks down. this may lead to a severely supressed storm track at times.

E: Brutally Cold (-3.0 to -4.0F); near normal snowfall

F: Much Above normal snowfall, and the poitential for at least one major snow event during the month.

G: Above Normal temperatures; near normal snowfall

H: Below Normal temperatures (-1.0 to -2.0)

J: Brutally cold (up to -5.0 degrees below normla); below normal snowfall.

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[RNS]

February and march will be out next week

[WEATHER53]

This is where weather related opposing views, and not personal bashing, gets to take hold.
For the DC area specifically and mid atlantic in general I do not see either the December nor January map as being correct.
The trough for December is too far east, it will be in the Ohio valley and the storm tracks will continue generally along or west of the applchns as they have, and we predicted, for this month and for December thus it will be mild in DC with very little snow.
January is tougher but even if it is cold this will be brought about by an extremely supressive pattern and snowfall will not be above normal. However, areas around Richmond and Norfolk and south of that would see unusual amounts of snow due to the supressive pattern. However, we are just about 50/50 split on January. Personally I do not think January turns cold until after 1/20. For DC/Balt/phi/NYC it is simply going to either be too mild to snow or when it is cold enough the pattern will be suppressive, we call for 12-15" total at DCA and no single storm of more than 5". There will be very little coastal storminess this season that is of snow producing benefit to the mid atlantic. The analog of 1979 contiues to move along to a tee.
I do still see a coastal storm in 11/29-12/2 time frame. Please remeber that I am a snow lover but not a snow crow. I may have missed a one or two day cold shot in Oct and Nov but I did not, as RNS did, call for colder than normal temps to return and remain in the east in neither starting 11/12 nor 11/20, I stated emphatically it would remain mild and that the trough would neither return nor reestablish in the east. This pointing out of weather opinions that differ and failed outcomes of predictions is vastly differenet than personal aminosity attacts "weathered" at other sites. We have been doing seasonal outlooks in DC since 1988 and last year told you, to many of your disbeliefs, that it would be a big snow and cold year. That is not in the cards this year. I acknowledge that RNS can put out very detailed discussions that I can no where near appraoch, however, we have been at this a while and at least as far as internet sites that I have seen he is a newcomer with a very appealing snow message for the east that our well established track record compels us to state will not be realized.

[NEwxgirl]

This is where weather related opposing views, and not personal bashing, gets to take hold.
For the DC area specifically and mid atlantic in general I do not see either the December nor January map as being correct.
The trough for December is too far east, it will be in the Ohio valley and the storm tracks will continue generally along or west of the applchns as they have, and we predicted, for this month and for December thus it will be mild in DC with very little snow.
January is tougher but even if it is cold this will be brought about by an extremely supressive pattern and snowfall will not be above normal. However, areas around Richmond and Norfolk and south of that would see unusual amounts of snow due to the supressive pattern. However, we are just about 50/50 split on January. Personally I do not think January turns cold until after 1/20. For DC/Balt/phi/NYC it is simply going to either be too mild to snow or when it is cold enough the pattern will be suppressive, we call for 12-15" total at DCA and no single storm of more than 5". There will be very little coastal storminess this season that is of snow producing benefit to the mid atlantic. The analog of 1979 contiues to move along to a tee.
I do still see a coastal storm in 11/29-12/2 time frame. Please remeber that I am a snow lover but not a snow crow. I may have missed a one or two day cold shot in Oct and Nov but I did not, as RNS did, call for colder than normal temps to return and remain in the east in neither starting 11/12 nor 11/20, I stated emphatically it would remain mild and that the trough would neither return nor reestablish in the east. This pointing out of weather opinions that differ and failed outcomes of predictions is vastly differenet than personal aminosity attacts "weathered" at other sites. We have been doing seasonal outlooks in DC since 1988 and last year told you, to many of your disbeliefs, that it would be a big snow and cold year. That is not in the cards this year. I acknowledge that RNS can put out very detailed discussions that I can no where near appraoch, however, we have been at this a while and at least as far as internet sites that I have seen he is a newcomer with a very appealing snow message for the east that our well established track record compels us to state will not be realized.

Let me inform you of our accuracy. We have been issuing seasonal outlooks for the winter since 2000, and the hurricane seasons since 2001. And have yet to fail when it comes to the skill of our winter forecasts. We are also 2/3 in the hurricane season department. that includes the record warm winter of 2001-02, which if one looked at the large scale pattern, they would have been able to easily figure out that it wasn't going to be anything big, much less the winter for the ages.

RNS respects you and keith Allen very much (as do I) for your success over the years. your right, we are relatively new at this, but the fact that we were 3rd graders when you were starting out in 1988, has no relevance whatsoever.

You do many fine discussions, which are very informative as well.

as far as the problems you and RNS had from wright-weather bulliten board, would it surround this thread?

http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/showt ... post122404

because i wish to inform you of the fact that he was not directing that post at you.

thats all

[Guest]

Well the way i see it is wait untill its all done and over with. Everyone has thier views on the up comming winter and i seriously doubt anyone will change thiers (I certainly wont-Broke my @ss doing that) to fit someone elses views. This isnt last year or the year before etc. What was then dont count for now no matter the track record that someone claims to have. (YES WE HAVE ALL BUSTED at one point or another!)So just wait and see who does what when its all said and done come spring!!!!!! Either way they were both well written and thought out and I for one wont dismiss one on the account of anothers so called track record!!!!!!!

[vbhoutex]

The point made earliler in another thread by RNS and NEwxgirl is well taken by all reading here. Each of us sho puts out any type of a forecast prides oursellves on our weather knowledge and our expertise at interpreting the information presented to us by the analogs, climatology, our own experiences, the models, our own "secret" sources etc. However, this is not a competition but a discussion of the pros and cons of each that may be presented. Many many who read these discussions and forecasts need to use them as learning tools to help them begin to understand the complexities of the weather and forecasting it. I know, I for one will be referring back to the posts of each of our professional and amatuer forecasters throughout the winter for help in understanding the winter patterns more and what they may or may not produce. No one is necessarily right or wrong with their forecast, at least not until the forecast period indicated is over and the forecast has verified or not. And above all if we do not learn from our mistakes and our successes then we shouldn't even be here posting. I want everyone to know that this is directed at you and you and you and you-EVERYONE!!! I may be a lot better at than the average joe or betty at predicting the weather, but I have eons of work to go to be as good as some who post here and for that matter at WW. JMHO.

[rainstorm]

yea. lets all calm down and enjoy the winter.

[JCT777]

RNS/NeWxgirl - You have obviously put a lot of effort into your forecast, and I enjoyed reading it. I am a little wary about believing that January will be as cold and snowy in my area as you have indicated, but I sure do hope you are correct! I look forward to seeing the February and March maps.

W53 - You also have done great work. I am hoping the winter is somewhat colder and snowier than you have indicated, but I understand your rationale.

I am learning a lot from all of the great forecasters and mets on this (and other) boards. Thanks and keep up the great work.

[HuffWx]

This never being fully stated, I would like to see 53 make a complete winter outlook without the assistance of KA. 53 has won some contests over the years, but frmo what I know, KA does most if not all of the outlooks. This is not a bash, but a honest question/proposition. Perhaps its like being in a tagteam with Andre the giant..you don't even have to wrestle to win.

Huff

[WEATHER53]

I am grateful to be away from WWbb where slander is king but I assume I am now on a board where we can discuss each other's forecasts and post opposing views. I imagine it is not so vanilla here that all we can do is either agree or say nothing. RNS is a gentleman. So am I and I think my response was simply stating my opinion on the uncoming winter events, contrasting that to his opinion and elaborating on some recent forecasts for both he and I that did not go very well. In 2001-02 it bothered me the amount of misinformation that seemed to be generated about a cold and snowy winter, we did not think so, stated so, took tremendous heat and were correct. Perhaps I just overestimate our import but I do want the public to have the information that we consider accurate and I posted it.
As to Huff-I did put out my winter forecast on 10/10 at WWBB. Keith and I do not tag team but his, which preceeded mine on 9/21, is the foundation of mine about 80% of the time. He and I agree on a mild December, he thinks January will be cold and February mild, I think it stays mild until around 1/20 and then colder and is very cold for February and into March. He stated 12" snow for DCA, I went with 12-15. He sees an ice storm in mid December, I do not.

[ctsnowlover]

This never being fully stated, I would like to see 53 make a complete winter outlook without the assistance of KA. 53 has won some contests over the years, but frmo what I know, KA does most if not all of the outlooks. This is not a bash, but a honest question/proposition. Perhaps its like being in a tagteam with Andre the giant..you don't even have to wrestle to win.

Huff

I agree, lets see what 53 can do on his own. So far KA's winter outlook is spot on. I give him the credit. I see 53 more as KA's publicist:)

[WEATHER53]

This never being fully stated, I would like to see 53 make a complete winter outlook without the assistance of KA. 53 has won some contests over the years, but frmo what I know, KA does most if not all of the outlooks. This is not a bash, but a honest question/proposition. Perhaps its like being in a tagteam with Andre the giant..you don't even have to wrestle to win.

Huff

I agree, lets see what 53 can do on his own. So far KA's winter outlook is spot on. I give him the credit. I see 53 more as KA's publicist

Ok, now this is a flame or attempt to provocate. I note this is this persons first post on here, it does not contain any counter weather information, it is soley critical of the person(me) and it is, as usual for this bs, inaccurate. As stated above and as stored in WWBB archives, I published a winter outlook on 10/10. My response to RNS was filled with weather information, this response, albeit mild, is the WWBB way and hopefully something that will not permeate here.

[Johnny]

RNS/NEwxgirl, thanks for the forecasts. Very informative. I live down here in Southeast, Texas and I guess we will see normal weather and temperatures in December? Also in January.....is Southeast, Texas included in the F? If not then where do we stand? Thanks.

[RNS]

RNS/NEwxgirl, thanks for the forecasts. Very informative. I live down here in Southeast, Texas and I guess we will see normal weather and temperatures in December? Also in January.....is Southeast, Texas included in the F? If not then where do we stand? Thanks.

yes, most of eastern texas is included in region F which would indicate much above normal snowfall, espaecially around the middle of the month.

the possibility exists for one major event (which in your region, would be 6"+), however i see the best overall potential for such and event being further east.

[Mr Bob]

It's a bold forecast and I wish you the very best of luck with your continued verification streak...Considering that it is getting late in November and there are no clear signs of a breakdown of the pattern, especially in the Southeast, a week or so with the current pattern in December is going to require a violent shift the other way to bring solid below numbers to the Southeast for that month. It can certainly happen but it would be nice to see those signs here soon.

A question regarding area F in your January forecast...Are you suggesting that a large scale area will see above normal snow with potential significant event(s) covering Houston to Jacksonville to NYC back to IND then to STL then to DFW. Or are you suggesting one significant event which will provide a storm track somewhere in that alley? All it takes is one storm to provide a small swath with well above normal in the southern states, but your coverage area is very large. Also, with an extremely suppressed stormtrack it tends to be very dry in the southern states a la Jan 2003. The mean trough position you are showing would not allow much availability of GOM moisture...this would argue in favor of at or below normal snowfall across this neck of the woods.

Just thoughts, not criticisms. RNS, you have proven yourself extremely knowledgable so I am eager to see how verification goes.

[HuffWx]

BTW...nice forecast RNS and Gal. DIdnt mean to steal your thunder.

53, I hope you didnt take that as a slam because it was not. Do you use the same basic method as KA because in the end u2 are usually close to the same with you being a tad more open ended and high sided.

Huff

[RNS]

this will not be January 2003. The STJ will be more active than what it was last year, in a more supressed pattern...though not as supressed as last JAN...that said, there will be much more variability in the storm tracks and the pattern will not be as locked in so to speak as it was last year. the Jet positions are there to show the location of the mean troughs and ridges, and the STJ is figured in to the january graphic to show the fac tthat it will be active. it was not included in Dec, b/c we dont feel it will be as active.

Area F covers the areas where it can snow. the reason why it is such a large area is becuase of the variability invloved. and the fact that there is the chance areas south of say STL to BOX see an event which could set the montly totals to near or above normal. Houston and JAX are not included in this area. the other two blue areas suggest where temperatures are likely to be below normal and much below normal.

[WEATHER53]

BTW...nice forecast RNS and Gal. DIdnt mean to steal your thunder.

53, I hope you didnt take that as a slam because it was not. Do you use the same basic method as KA because in the end u2 are usually close to the same with you being a tad more open ended and high sided.

Huff

KA has never given me the precise details of his methods although having seen the evolution period of 1980-88 before it became far more public in 1988 I am aware of the general theory and it is amazingly accurate. I watch during the analog period and cull my own information as winter become spring becomes summer and after I have assembled that I develop my own concept. I then ask him what his winnter outlook is going to be just before he publicly issues it. Due to the fact that I had observed his culling methods it is not suprising that 80% of the time the root of his outlook and mine are founded in the same assessments. However, in 1993-94 I came up with that being a cold winter and one of his two misses was that year as he felt it would be around normal. But, I felt that 2000-2001 would be cold and snowy with multiple events and other than the late jan event I was wrong and he was right. So we agree about 80% of the time but not alwyas.