Pre/Post Christmas Arctic Outbreak?

[Valkhorn]

Seems like a lot of ensembles and models are starting to hint at this.

The bad news:

The new 00z run of the GFS (not so good with this range) has some screwy maps:






We have the MRF/GFS colorized here


Note the aleutean low developing a nice ridge into the west meaning according to this model a surge of arctic air into the east is next.

I'm looking for model guidence to this.



Plenty more ensemble runs can be found at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ens.html#nh

Artic air is on the way

[NEwxgirl]

I can agree with that a little, but I doubt theres going to be any pre-christmas storm again this year. The arctic outbreak is another thing. 850mb temperatures just over the pole are very cold and with the high pressure centers being cross-polar in origin they should be able to tap that frigid air.

I would watch out for a surge in the Madden-Julian Oscillation around the last week of December, which would re-charge the pacific jet, and with all that cold air in place, who knows what could happen here in the eastern part of the country.

With the Pacific jet coming and the NAO Negative, theres alot of room for a very fun first week of january and this time for areas even further south? The Carolinas, Georgia?

[NEwxgirl]

And by the way, the GFS ensemble mean is very nicely teleconnected. Notice the low pressure center near the Alleutian Islands, PNA ridge in the west, and deep downstream trough in the east.

[NEwxgirl]

Here's another view>>>

[JCT777]

Thanks for the info, Valkhorn and NEwxgirl. It does look like the last 10 days of December could be very cold in the eastern U.S. Cool!