EURO continues to depict a stormy ride through the next week

[Stormsfury]

And on Day 5 ... a classic EP pattern (East Pacific) pattern takes shape, with a split flow regime across the US. Also, the NAO ensemble forecast mean calls for a general slightly negative pattern (EURO depicts a modified -NAO with a ridge over Spain/UK on Day 5.) ... it's still up in the air in regards to the next storm system, but a coastal low DOES look to be in the cards for the next storm system, with barely any time before the next one begins to take shape in the Central US by Day 7.

EURO Day 5 ...

On this map, the EURO's Day 5 500mb heights output resembled a classic October East Pacific Pattern and usually is associated with a very stormy pattern ... and also would generally denote a stronger and further east displaced subtropical jet, which would tend to keep the US in a very stormy regime ... and such looks to be the case for the next week to 10 days.



Right now, as it stands, the ETA is showing a decent CAD signature at the end of the 18z run on 12/10 ... and quite strong overrunning. The precip shield looks way too weak from 500mb to surface with the amount of SW flow progged by the model aloft over damming NE winds ... The 18z GFS has absolutely no respect for the building CP high over the NE and shoves it out like an unwanted ex-girlfriend (sorry for the melodramatics, but that's occurring now) but also picks up on not one, but TWO s/w dumb-belling around each other ... which the first one shears out and is pushed northward (almost like a Fujiwhara effect as the second more potent s/w drops SE'ward). As energy from the s/w is ejected, the GFS wants to phase the two energies, but it's SFC placement doesn't exactly match what I would expect from that 500mb output ... some kind of transferrence should occur and still ride a coastal low, and what's not so clear is the amount of wedging will actually take place, but the CP HIGH has been progged much weaker than the previous runs a few days ago.

The 00z CMC run still makes the most sense to me, IMHO, with a redevelopment off the Carolina Coast as the run respects the wedging ... something that the other globals are at least, hinting at ...

Even afterwards, BOTH the CMC and GFS ensembles are hinting strongly at a very strong Eastern Trough between Dec 17th-20th ...

SF

[wrkh99]

I want snow !!!!

[Playballgt14]

white christmas anyone for NE ohio?? i think so

[Stormsfury]

white christmas anyone for NE ohio?? i think so

Although I cannot give details (for I simply just don't know that far out), the ensemble means are really pointing to QUITE a cold spell coming right around Christmas ...

[wrkh99]

I agree with that Stormfury . The cold may even reach the deep south and set the stages for new years suprise for the deep deep south

Okay I can hope can't I ?

[Stormsfury]

I agree with that Stormfury . The cold may even reach the deep south and set the stages for new years suprise for the deep deep south

Okay I can hope can't I ?

Well, from my weather weenie standpoint ... hell yeah!

[WEATHERGURU]

Stormsfury do you see a shot for accumulating snow for Detroit, Mi? People say this storm is similar to the Christmas 02 storm and we recieved 6.4 inches from that storm. So what do you think?

[Valkhorn]

If it did it wouldn't be the first white new years for the deep south...

It seems like snow is getting more and more common down here over the years. It's very odd.

In my area we average less than an inch a year, and our maximum snowfall for one day was 15" back in 1963. We've only had about 2-3 5"+ snowfalls (two of them being in 1993 and 1997).

[wrkh99]

Nope does anyone remember the Texas AM vs MSU game in LA a few years ago ?

[donsutherland1]

I have no meaningful changes from my <b>thoughts</b> yesterday:

1) Soaking rains will affect the Eastern U.S. tonight into tomorrow.

2) Another storm will develop with a primary center heading into the lower Ohio Valley/upper Tennessee Valley and a secondary storm taking shape off North Carolina. This secondary feature will fairly quickly become the main system.

High pressure--and if one examines the temperature anomalies in Canada, this is a cold high pressure system--will not exit from the scene so quickly that the entire Mid-Atlantic/Northeast faces rain. I still don't like the ECMWF's idea of blasting the high from northern VT (Sunday 12Z) to south of eastern New Foundland (Monday 12Z).

Hence, interior sections will likely see a significant snowfall, while the big cities from Philadelphia will see accumulating snow-to rain-back to snow. Even there, the possibility of a significant accumulation cannot be dismissed outright. The Piedmont will likely pick up some freezing rain.

3) Another important system will likely affect the region somewhere in the 12/18-22 timeframe.

4) This system could be followed by an Arctic outbreak. Overall, the possibility of a white Christmas (snowcover) are looking pretty good across the Ohio Valley, northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern U.S.

[Stormsfury]

I have no meaningful changes from my <b>thoughts</b> yesterday:

1) Soaking rains will affect the Eastern U.S. tonight into tomorrow.

2) Another storm will develop with a primary center heading into the lower Ohio Valley/upper Tennessee Valley and a secondary storm taking shape off North Carolina. This secondary feature will fairly quickly become the main system.

High pressure--and if one examines the temperature anomalies in Canada, this is a cold high pressure system--will not exit from the scene so quickly that the entire Mid-Atlantic/Northeast faces rain. I still don't like the ECMWF's idea of blasting the high from northern VT (Sunday 12Z) to south of eastern New Foundland (Monday 12Z).

Hence, interior sections will likely see a significant snowfall, while the big cities from Philadelphia will see accumulating snow-to rain-back to snow. Even there, the possibility of a significant accumulation cannot be dismissed outright. The Piedmont will likely pick up some freezing rain.

3) Another important system will likely affect the region somewhere in the 12/18-22 timeframe.

4) This system could be followed by an Arctic outbreak. Overall, the possibility of a white Christmas (snowcover) are looking pretty good across the Ohio Valley, northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern U.S.

I definitely support this ... the EC is still having some difficulty in regards to nudging out CP high pressure too quickly and in regards to the SBJ energy ... and it continues to get quite interesting down the road ... the 00z ETA has trended a bit colder and slower with the CP high setting up shop. (Also not to mention just how off the temperature guidance versus actual temperatures have been much colder than progged).

Even though, the ETA (and the warm bias) still show up quite well, the overall idea is trending towards what I originally started in the other thread about CAD and a significant overrunning event with a decent signature showing up on the 00z ETA run ... it also appears that either a Miller A, or B (more likely) type scenario should take place .. with a coastal redevelopment ... even the 18z GFS somewhat picked up on that idea, but of course, the GFS NEVER respects cold air damming and is always way too quick to shove out wedges.

Looking at the Day 8 12z GFS ensembles and the 00z CMC ensembles members and BOTH support the idea of a very deep Eastern Trough ...

GFS Ensemble Members 500mb (192 hours)


CMC Ensembles 500mb (192 hours)

[RNS]

Agreed...and then we/ll have to see what wants to come through the flow during that period to start problems. Which IMO are coming and this time for areas further south.

[wrkh99]

How far south ?

[RNS]

Supressed enough that the system could bring heavy snow to areas of the central and southern mid-atlantic and southeast.

[LMolineux]

Supressed enough that the system could bring heavy snow to areas of the central and southern mid-atlantic and southeast.

And what do you really truely concider the Mid Atlantic. It is hard to really Tell all my life i have known Philly area to be Mid Atlantic. But some people list it as NE. Can you help clear this up. And when you say Heavy Snow? Could this potentially be a blizzard? Because i am fienin for a Blizzard here.

[RNS]

Supressed enough that the system could bring heavy snow to areas of the central and southern mid-atlantic and southeast.

And what do you really truely concider the Mid Atlantic. It is hard to really Tell all my life i have known Philly area to be Mid Atlantic. But some people list it as NE. Can you help clear this up. And when you say Heavy Snow? Could this potentially be a blizzard? Because i am fienin for a Blizzard here.

I consider Philly a part of the Northeast Along with PA/NJ on north. delaware...and MD i consider part of the mid-atlantic.

Dont worry you will most likely get your presidentds day part two (or worse???)...

[LMolineux]

Supressed enough that the system could bring heavy snow to areas of the central and southern mid-atlantic and southeast.

And what do you really truely concider the Mid Atlantic. It is hard to really Tell all my life i have known Philly area to be Mid Atlantic. But some people list it as NE. Can you help clear this up. And when you say Heavy Snow? Could this potentially be a blizzard? Because i am fienin for a Blizzard here.

I consider Philly a part of the Northeast Along with PA/NJ on north. delaware...and MD i consider part of the mid-atlantic.

Dont worry you will most likely get your presidentds day part two (or worse???)...

RNS i surely hope. After last Weekends storm that really hurt badly and it hurt deep i still feel it and it makes my heart hurt where i can feel it through my chest like its tight. I was once again in a bad location.

NYC Blizzards since i have been alive since 1979. Have been 83 93 96 03 off the top of my head.

Philly siginificantly alot lower.

83 93 96.

I know NYC has had more then its fair share of Blizzards. I Know people from Allentown on south to Ric. can surely agree. We are long over due for a major blockbuster storm a historic storm one to talk about for ages. We are just sitting here hurting and wishing and hoping for that one storm to come. It is just hard waiting for it. Heck at this point i coudl care less about sharing it with NYC and up at this point just to get a raging blizzard. You know All To well RNS know how i feel. Its a Pain inside you cant do anything about. Just let it try and fade. But when you get missed or jipped it just surfaces along with the missed jipped storm which makes it all that much worse imo.