c-pa disc.

[2001kx]

any thoughts on this disc. from nws st.college

IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST AND NOW LINE OF DEVELOPING
CONVECTION IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA MOVING INTO MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS.
SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT REMINISCENT TO ME OF A SYSTEM POORLY HANDLED BY
THE MODELS UNTIL 12 TO 18 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT MID
ATLANTIC SNOW EVENT IN THE WINTER OF 2001. THAT STORM WAS
ULTIMATELY CHARACTERIZED BY A MUCH STRONGER THAN INITIALIZED UPPER
TROF CARVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH ULTIMATELY
TAPPED RICH GULF COAST MOISTURE...INITIATING DEEP CONVECTION WHICH
PUNCHED UP THE EAST COAST RIDGE AND ALLOWED THE STORM TO TRACK CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO BRING A MAJOR SNOWSTORM TO THE WASHINGTON
D.C. METRO AREA.

BIGGEST CONCERN FOR OUR AREA WOULD BE HYDROLOGIC GIVEN RECENT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING FROM LAST WEEK'S RAIN AND SNOW MELT...AND A
SIMILARLY REPLENTISHED SNOWPACK FROM THE WEEKEND SNOWSTORM. 18 UTC
ETA/GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INCREASINGLY WET SOLUTION DURING
WEDNESDAY WITH TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF EXPLOSIVELY
DEVELOPING SFC LOW IN VIRGINIA. AT THE SAME TIME...WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...
GIVEN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. WL TAKE A LOOK AT 00 UTC
GUIDANCE BEFORE DECIDING ON A POTENTIAL SPS ISSUANCE LATER THIS
EVENING

[rick-g]

From the Binghamtom disc:


COASTAL STORM PROGGED OVER SC BY 12Z WITH LIGHT PRECIP NORTHWARD
OVER THE NY/PA BORDER. TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST PRECIP OVERNIGHT WILL
BE A FREEZING RAIN / RAIN MIXTURE AND SOME OF THIS IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY. BY MIDDAY COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM
CRASHES THROUGH NY AND PA AND ANY PRECIP WILL GO OVER TO
SNOW...POTENTIALLY HEAVY EAST OF I81.

THE FACT IS 100-150 MILES WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN TERMS OF
TOTAL PRECIPITATION...AND THE FORM OF THE PRECIPITATION. EQUAL
ARGUMENTS CAN BE MADE FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH A SIGNIFICANT
HYDRO THREAT...AND FOR A HEAVY SNOW EVENT. AND ANY FREEZING RAIN
PROVIDES A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD. WE NOTE THE ETA IN PARTICULAR IS
STARTING TO TREND A LITTLE COOLER OVER OUR FA WITH THE CYCLONE A BIT
FARTHER EAST.

FOR NOW MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AND WE HAVE DECIDED TO WAIT ONE
MORE PERIOD ON A WATCH. WE WILL REISSUE THE SPS THIS MORNING AND
HOPE FOR SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUITY WITH THE 12Z RUNS.

[Guest]

Pretty safe to say imo you guys atleast should be on the cold side of the storm......Personally i would perfer a track farther west which doesnt look like is in the cards now that we have gotten the colder air........Funny how just a month or two ago had the systems i wanna see but no cold air of course and now they are non existent...........Oh well such as life. Either way this looks to blast central and western PA up into Western/Central NY with lots of snow. Farther east its still iffy because of the uncertainty of the exact track of the low..........

[2001kx]

Either way this looks to blast central and western PA up into Western/Central NY with lots of snow.

i hope so.....
maybe 3inches???