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The northern stream has been a shade FASTER than previous runs with the trough CLEARLY positively tilted, well depicted at this point (by all the globals) ... however, watch what the 12z GFS does where the 12z ETA (or other models do NOT do ...)
Notice the northern stream is poised and ready to CRUSH the southern stream energy and phase WAY too early ...
Yes, the 500mb do reflect that a 2nd low redevelops on the 66hr timeframe, but quickly gets absorbed/phased (if you will) in Northern MS/AL, but loses it rapidly, making the northern stream energy dominant and bombs it out and completely absorbs the feature 6 hours later ...
Where's the vorticity max? Wrong...Classic GFS bias at work.
12z ETA - Southern stream energy a little further south and northern stream energy still orientated in a POS TILT trough ...
Second low redeveloping over Northern MS/AL (at the surface)
Clearly, the phase showing much later, and much further east, but clearly depicts a better defined surface low in response ...
Eastern Region MM5 through 60 hours - MSLP, 925mb temperatures ... showing the secondary development ....
12z Canadian ... 144 hrs ... and further south with the developing southern low than the 00z Canadian ...
12z Run
00z Run
Where in the hell is the UKMET going on the 12z Run? Taking the southern SFC low over Central MO to East Central, IL and then east into Western OH, and then NORTH into Eastern Canada nearly over Lake Huron? Obviously, the run phases the system very early and indicates NO 2nd re-development from the southern stream energy.
