ETA looks like the OV/Mid Atlantic a nice little event

[Anonymous]

If you look at 84 hours and extrapolate, someone could get 2-4 inches from this event....

[WEATHER53]

If you look at 84 hours and extrapolate, someone could get 2-4 inches from this event....

Agree. Also, think that over next week or so DC and Phillie could catch several 2-4" snows but do not see any 6"+ up the coast movers, historic precedent shows this is a suppressive scenario and Ga/Nc/Sc and southern half of Va should be in for more action that DC north.

[Anonymous]

with the STJ not really active right now---we have to rely on shortwaves digging from the NW over the Ridge---so its hard to say if we are really in the supressed pattern because it dosent appear like energy will be undercutting the ridge any time soon.....

both the gfs/eta give DC a 1-3 inch event---for fri/sat. Maybe we can get lucky like the jan 5 event from last year 2003!

[Guest]

YUPPERS ... ME.


and keep in mind that JX has already committed to NO snow... which is given Jx's appalling track record asure and certain sign that someone will see a decent light snow in VA and or NC

If you look at 84 hours and extrapolate, someone could get 2-4 inches from this event....

[Guest]

Did a little statistical research yesterday on suppressed JAN -MAR 80 snows in Dc..here's what I found..if analog works, there will indeed be no major 6 inch plus snows the remainder of this season.. and the likelihood of THE BIG ONE happening 2 years back to back is pretty nil..If you look back at the last 30 years, it never happened(unless you count JAN 87 2 storms back to back same week.. and Vets Day 87. Now LGA BOS etc is another story as they did have back to back big ones this year and last.

IAD-1/31-2/1=1"..DCA=2"

IAD-2/6=1"..DCA=trace

IAD and DCA-2/9=2"

IAD-2/28=3"..DCA=2"

IAD-3/1=6"..DCA=5"

IAD-3/13-14=4"..DCA=2"

There was an early JAN 80 storm of about 6-8 inches but it seemed to have arrived with a strong cold front/storm system which ended the mild pattern..the CF DC will be experiencing this week will not produce such a storm.

[WEATHER53]

DT-Could we not make a commitment to make this our BB of choice. It always works, it is a myth that they are so polite as to allow no rancor,(they do prohibit the pure antagonism that WWBB allows but debate never riles you but you do get fed up with those that bring nothing but harassment just like I have long been tired of it and for the removal of it) so what is prohibitive to having this be the place that weather hobbyists would setlle on. Thanks

[JCT777]

I would rather see no snow at all in the next 6 days and have the potential for a big storm in the 1/12 - 1/14 time frame, than have several opportunities for an inch or two of snow (which would no doubt miss my area or bust entirely).

[HuffWx]

Yeah, this must be LA because the Clip show is up and running...

I think the no storms greater then 4 is risky. Consider the blizzard last year. The analog year was 58...and there was a blizzad. Much different synoptic features...and with such varity the risk for different outcomes are high. My logic is a close match and an exact match are different with differing outcomes very possible.

Keep in mind that jan 20 2000 had northern stream waves...one was a 4-8 inch snowfall my CWA north. I think Annapolis was the big winner with 8 inches.

Huff