Hey, its 30 degrees here in Austin, TX, right now with a wind chill of 16 degrees!! High temps are not supposed to climb out of the mid 30s with cold air advection continuing to pour down from the north.
Just 3 days ago, our NWS mets were forecasting highs in the 50s today with lows in the 30s.
JB from Accuwx forecasted a high of 44 in Houston today and even though I'm a pro site subscriber and JB fan, I questioned his call on this one. Well, dang if he wasn't right on.
I'm at a loss to understand why our government-paid mets seemed married to the GFS on every forecast beyond 3 days. They don't seem to consider other models and/or other forecasting tools to nail down such cold air outbreaks.
I know hindsight is 20-20, but this happens every winter down here in Texas. You can almost predict when their temp forecasts will bust when the first real arctic outbreak hits.
Now if we only had some snow ....
Colder than most thought
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Portastorm
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Colder than most thought
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
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vbhoutex
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Definitely colder than anyone predicted here in Houston. We are sitting at 33º right now with a stiff N wind, what is commonly called a 'BLUE NORTHER" down here. THIS IS NOT WHAT WAS PREDICTED!!! I am not complaining though since we are definitely getting a taste of Winter here. Question is-How long is this CAA going to continue. Locals call for it to cut off Thursday in our area and rise back to norms(60s-40's). I am wondering if they may be off, only by noticing how much different it was this am than it was supposed to be. High expected here in Houston today is 41º, which for us is a COLD HIGH!!
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vbhoutex....if you are gonna get up to 41 you are gonna have to get some sunshine to come through. If not then you won't get out of the 30's. The same goes for me I guess.
Yep, the NWS is saying, quote....."THEN A WARM-UP WILL OCCUR BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ONSHORE WINDS RETURN."
They are talking like this is exactly what will happen. I do not like there wording. When the average Joe reads their discussion they take it as fact when both you and I take it with a grain of salt. No big deal. I do enjoy reading the discussions because they give me a feel on what to expect but man where they ever off with this last front. I think everyone was.
NWS is kind of down playing the front that will coming through this coming up Sunday. I say (just like the last one) that we need to keep an eye on it and the next one after that.
Yep, the NWS is saying, quote....."THEN A WARM-UP WILL OCCUR BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ONSHORE WINDS RETURN."
They are talking like this is exactly what will happen. I do not like there wording. When the average Joe reads their discussion they take it as fact when both you and I take it with a grain of salt. No big deal. I do enjoy reading the discussions because they give me a feel on what to expect but man where they ever off with this last front. I think everyone was.
NWS is kind of down playing the front that will coming through this coming up Sunday. I say (just like the last one) that we need to keep an eye on it and the next one after that.
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Portastorm
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Agreed Johnny. Y'all have that overrunning cloudiness that we've had all morning over here in Austin. And at 11 a.m., it's still only 31 degrees.
And yes, we do have to watch out for next week and future arctic airmasses. JB and DT and others have been alluding to the cold locking in for most of January. I wouldn't count too much on the NWS forecasts beyond 48 hours.
As I said in my starting thread, I have witnessed for nearly 20 years how our own NWS guys underestimate arctic airmasses and almost always "bust" on their temp forecasts beyond 48 hours. I guess I wonder if this happens to our friends across the South?
And yes, we do have to watch out for next week and future arctic airmasses. JB and DT and others have been alluding to the cold locking in for most of January. I wouldn't count too much on the NWS forecasts beyond 48 hours.
As I said in my starting thread, I have witnessed for nearly 20 years how our own NWS guys underestimate arctic airmasses and almost always "bust" on their temp forecasts beyond 48 hours. I guess I wonder if this happens to our friends across the South?
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
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