January Update: Severe Cold and Snow Likely Down the Road

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
donsutherland1
S2K Analyst
S2K Analyst
Posts: 2718
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
Location: New York

January Update: Severe Cold and Snow Likely Down the Road

#1 Postby donsutherland1 » Wed Jan 07, 2004 7:39 pm

This is a follow-up of the January <b>pattern discussion</b> of December 24.

Briefly, the pattern change to what is likely to be a prolonged and much colder pattern occurred on schedule (January 5 vs. the estimated January 3-5 timeframe).

January 1-7 was generally warmer than anticipated as contrasted with the expectation of a near normal first week.

Select temperature departures from normal (January 1-7):

Boston: +3.8 degrees
Charleston, SC: +5.1 degrees
New York City: +4.9 degrees
Philadelphia: +3.3 degrees
Washington, DC: +8.8 degrees

Nevertheless, the overall ideas as highlighted still appear to be in good shape both in terms of the general trend toward colder weather arriving in pushes and in the major details:

<i>[T]he best chance for extreme cold would exist in the January 18-25 period after which a noticeable warmup would commence...

However, the guidance is still useful in noting that (1) the cold will be coming in January; (2) January will likely be a colder than normal month (agreed upon in all cases with similar patterns); and (3) the cold will be sustained but will be reinforced and strengthened in several pulses.</i>

At this time, there is overwhelming model support for the idea that the January 8-14 period will average colder than the January 1-7 period. Hence, it is a good time to look further into the details ahead.

The first issue is the possibility for severe cold. By that I mean minimum temperatures into the single-digits or lower from Washington, DC to Boston.

While it appears that Boston and possibly Providence could slip near or below zero before the end of this week for minimum temperatures and NYC could flirt with single-digit lows Saturday morning, I believe a wider outbreak of severe cold still lies ahead.

Briefly, if one examines recent 500 mb height anomalies for the December 31-January 6 period, one finds that the current pattern looks to be a less extreme version of that of 1981-1982.

Consequently, this situation offers some support to the idea of an outbreak of severe cold during January before the cold pattern breaks. The general idea of the January 18-25 period still remains a good candidate for height of this cold.

The second issue pertains to the possibility of a significant snowstorm.

The less extreme appearance of 2003-04 suggests that some of the suppression of 1981-82 will not be present meaning that there is some added support for a significant snowfall (6" or more over a widespread area) before the pattern breaks.

One of the analog years had a big snowstorm (12" or more). Right now, it is too soon to jump on such an idea, but honing in on the details of the evolving pattern and the earlier analogs that heralded the pattern change and general outlines of the pattern now unfolding, my confidence is high that there will be at least a widespread 4"-8" snowfall in the East before the pattern breaks.

For the major snowstorm (12" or more over a large area) to occur, one will need to look for Gulf of Mexico development at a time when the Polar Vortex is located over central or northern Quebec (to avoid suppression), a possible jump of a secondary center to the North Carolina/Virginia coast, and a track north-northeastward from there.

Based on analogs for the current pattern, I believe the cities at greatest risk of a significant snowfall of 6" or more include:

Albany
Boston
Charleston, WV
Hartford
New York City
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
Providence
Syracuse
Wilmington, DE

It is also in these cities that the best chance for a major snowstorm also exists, though my confidence on that is not as high as the idea of at least a 4"-8" event.

A moderate risk exists for:

Baltimore
Richmond
Washington, DC

If one examines the recent SOI readings one finds the following:

January 2: -8.10
January 3: -17.30
January 4: -26.00
January 5: -19.10
January 6: -5.50

This argues for a more active Southern Branch for a time, possibly in the January 17-22 timeframe.

Past analogs pertaining to suppression associated with the coldest part of the month and the single analog for a big snowstorm also suggest that the wider January 15-22 period is probably the best candidate for a significant snowstorm in the East.

This snowstorm could be followed by the season's coldest air mass. Afterward, the idea of a sharp thaw, probably beginning after January 25 still looks decent.

But, if past analogs to the current pattern are of any indication, this thaw will not be long-lived. Bringing into the picture the MJO, QBO, historical patterns following December snowfall similar to this season (significant snowstorm December 7 or earlier and much above normal December snowfall), and analogs to the current pattern, February continues to look to see above to much above normal snowfall and likely a greater chance at a big storm than January.

Overall, at the time of this update, the pattern continues to evolve nicely--and one can reference the earlier post for the general outlines--and the idea of a bout of widespread severe cold (which could bring a hard freeze to the Gulf Coast and parts of Florida) before the pattern breaks has gained important support over the past two weeks. The idea of at least a 4"-8" snowfall in the East before the pattern breaks also looks increasingly good.

For now enjoy the cold. As the month advances, look for winter tranquility to be replaced by winter ferocity before the month ends on a noticeably milder note.
0 likes   

User avatar
Colin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5086
Joined: Fri Apr 18, 2003 4:17 pm
Location: Catasauqua, PA
Contact:

#2 Postby Colin » Wed Jan 07, 2004 7:45 pm

When the milder trend begins, will that be it for the winter? Or is the potential of more arctic cold there after late January?
0 likes   

Guest

#3 Postby Guest » Wed Jan 07, 2004 7:50 pm

Great Discussion as always Don!!! I pretty much agree 100% on this as well! I do think one of those events your talking about 4 - 8 will come from a OH Valley low/Jumper which im thinking in that Jan 15 -22 time frame will leave a good swath of snow in this area as well especially from the OH River north in IN and OH into WVA and Western PA!! As i said in the other thread of mine we will see. This looks imo where places such as my own could see temps dip down into the teens to even perhaps 20 or so below 0 especially with snowpack on the ground at the height of this artic outbreak!!! During last years outbreak it managed to fall to -21 here which could be very possible as well with this outbreak! Which btw that is ten off the all time record low which is -31 and happend during that 1994 outbreak!!!
0 likes   

User avatar
wx247
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14279
Age: 41
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 10:35 pm
Location: Monett, Missouri
Contact:

#4 Postby wx247 » Wed Jan 07, 2004 7:56 pm

great discussion Don... as usual. This month has already seen some wild temp. swings and I am sure that we will see colder air later this month.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Anonymous

#5 Postby Anonymous » Wed Jan 07, 2004 8:13 pm

That was, without a doubt Don, one of the most epically excellent weather discussions I have ever enjoyed in a while.

I am beginning to get some of the gist of what this winter could bring, and I am beginning to realize that there will likely come a day when, after conducting a jebwalk, I will be dispensing with adjectives like 'cool' and 'refreshing' with regard to the intensity of the cold weather that will impact Woodbridge.

I think we could see an 8-inch event in January, possibly a 12 incher or greater if things come together. But I am beginning to think that February could be one heck of a snowy one for the MA this season.

I am very thankful that I have five good digging shovels in my rec room, all oiled up and ready for use. I think I am going to need them.


-ARCTIC BLAST JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
0 likes   

User avatar
FLguy
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 799
Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2003 5:36 pm
Location: Daytona Beach FL
Contact:

Re: January Update: Severe Cold and Snow Likely Down the Roa

#6 Postby FLguy » Wed Jan 07, 2004 8:28 pm

donsutherland1 wrote:This is a follow-up of the January <b>pattern discussion</b> of December 24.

Briefly, the pattern change to what is likely to be a prolonged and much colder pattern occurred on schedule (January 5 vs. the estimated January 3-5 timeframe).

January 1-7 was generally warmer than anticipated as contrasted with the expectation of a near normal first week.

Select temperature departures from normal (January 1-7):

Boston: +3.8 degrees
Charleston, SC: +5.1 degrees
New York City: +4.9 degrees
Philadelphia: +3.3 degrees
Washington, DC: +8.8 degrees

Nevertheless, the overall ideas as highlighted still appear to be in good shape both in terms of the general trend toward colder weather arriving in pushes and in the major details:

<i>[T]he best chance for extreme cold would exist in the January 18-25 period after which a noticeable warmup would commence...

However, the guidance is still useful in noting that (1) the cold will be coming in January; (2) January will likely be a colder than normal month (agreed upon in all cases with similar patterns); and (3) the cold will be sustained but will be reinforced and strengthened in several pulses.</i>

At this time, there is overwhelming model support for the idea that the January 8-14 period will average colder than the January 1-7 period. Hence, it is a good time to look further into the details ahead.

The first issue is the possibility for severe cold. By that I mean minimum temperatures into the single-digits or lower from Washington, DC to Boston.

While it appears that Boston and possibly Providence could slip near or below zero before the end of this week for minimum temperatures and NYC could flirt with single-digit lows Saturday morning, I believe a wider outbreak of severe cold still lies ahead.

Briefly, if one examines recent 500 mb height anomalies for the December 31-January 6 period, one finds that the current pattern looks to be a less extreme version of that of 1981-1982.

Consequently, this situation offers some support to the idea of an outbreak of severe cold during January before the cold pattern breaks. The general idea of the January 18-25 period still remains a good candidate for height of this cold.

The second issue pertains to the possibility of a significant snowstorm.

The less extreme appearance of 2003-04 suggests that some of the suppression of 1981-82 will not be present meaning that there is some added support for a significant snowfall (6" or more over a widespread area) before the pattern breaks.

One of the analog years had a big snowstorm (12" or more). Right now, it is too soon to jump on such an idea, but honing in on the details of the evolving pattern and the earlier analogs that heralded the pattern change and general outlines of the pattern now unfolding, my confidence is high that there will be at least a widespread 4"-8" snowfall in the East before the pattern breaks.

For the major snowstorm (12" or more over a large area) to occur, one will need to look for Gulf of Mexico development at a time when the Polar Vortex is located over central or northern Quebec (to avoid suppression), a possible jump of a secondary center to the North Carolina/Virginia coast, and a track north-northeastward from there.

Based on analogs for the current pattern, I believe the cities at greatest risk of a significant snowfall of 6" or more include:

Albany
Boston
Charleston, WV
Hartford
New York City
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
Providence
Syracuse
Wilmington, DE

It is also in these cities that the best chance for a major snowstorm also exists, though my confidence on that is not as high as the idea of at least a 4"-8" event.

A moderate risk exists for:

Baltimore
Richmond
Washington, DC

If one examines the recent SOI readings one finds the following:

January 2: -8.10
January 3: -17.30
January 4: -26.00
January 5: -19.10
January 6: -5.50

This argues for a more active Southern Branch for a time, possibly in the January 17-22 timeframe.

Past analogs pertaining to suppression associated with the coldest part of the month and the single analog for a big snowstorm also suggest that the wider January 15-22 period is probably the best candidate for a significant snowstorm in the East.

This snowstorm could be followed by the season's coldest air mass. Afterward, the idea of a sharp thaw, probably beginning after January 25 still looks decent.

But, if past analogs to the current pattern are of any indication, this thaw will not be long-lived. Bringing into the picture the MJO, QBO, historical patterns following December snowfall similar to this season (significant snowstorm December 7 or earlier and much above normal December snowfall), and analogs to the current pattern, February continues to look to see above to much above normal snowfall and likely a greater chance at a big storm than January.

Overall, at the time of this update, the pattern continues to evolve nicely--and one can reference the earlier post for the general outlines--and the idea of a bout of widespread severe cold (which could bring a hard freeze to the Gulf Coast and parts of Florida) before the pattern breaks has gained important support over the past two weeks. The idea of at least a 4"-8" snowfall in the East before the pattern breaks also looks increasingly good.

For now enjoy the cold. As the month advances, look for winter tranquility to be replaced by winter ferocity before the month ends on a noticeably milder note.


EXCELLENT discussion Don and EXTREMELY well written too...

you mentioned the MJO which kind of goes hand in hand with the -SOI currently.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... index.html

since i cant post the graphics on here directly...just follow the link. I agreee with you strongly about the implications of a more active STJ on the pattern in the coming weeks as the SOI negative phase would imply...however notice (from the link above) how the enhanced MJO related convection is migrating further east with time as supressed convection develops near and west of 120E.

when the enhanced convection is located further to the east (even in spite of the diminished correlation between the MJO and heavy precip events) it can still translate to an enhanced STJ...and more action further SOUTH while the PAC northwest gets a chance to dry out courtesy of the decreased convection near 120E.
0 likes   

User avatar
Chris the Weather Man
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 746
Joined: Fri Dec 12, 2003 9:49 pm
Location: NJ

#7 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Wed Jan 07, 2004 8:30 pm

Great Post, Don!!!!!!!! :D ( Next week potentially even colder! Highs in the upper single digits to the low teens are possible??
0 likes   

Anonymous

#8 Postby Anonymous » Wed Jan 07, 2004 8:38 pm

Chris the Weather Man wrote:Great Post, Don!!!!!!!! :D ( Next week potentially even colder! Highs in the upper single digits to the low teens are possible??



I can still remember back on Jan 21 1985 when Woodbridge had a high of only +2 degrees. That was not cool or refreshing; that was cold.
That night, the temperature tobogganed downward from there, to a frigid low of -14 degrees, which is, to this very day, the coldest weather I have ever personally experienced.

I would like to personally go up to Canada and visit them and to personally experience -50's weather. I would like to try and conduct one of my jebwalks there.

That would be something.


-ARCTIC BLAST JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
0 likes   

User avatar
Stephanie
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23843
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:53 am
Location: Glassboro, NJ

#9 Postby Stephanie » Wed Jan 07, 2004 9:24 pm

Jeb - you need to be in Montana right now!!

Don - that was a very well-written discussion. For a weather novice like myself, the discussion wasn't too technical. I still have alot to learn about MJO and SOI, etc.

I must say that everything that ALL of you have forecasted has pretty much come to fruition. Give yourselves a hand!! :D
0 likes   

User avatar
FLguy
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 799
Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2003 5:36 pm
Location: Daytona Beach FL
Contact:

#10 Postby FLguy » Wed Jan 07, 2004 9:34 pm

Stephanie wrote:Jeb - you need to be in Montana right now!!

Don - that was a very well-written discussion. For a weather novice like myself, the discussion wasn't too technical. I still have alot to learn about MJO and SOI, etc.

I must say that everything that ALL of you have forecasted has pretty much come to fruition. Give yourselves a hand!! :D


Steph...in this thread is a discussion on the MJO and its effects which i did awhile back...hopefully it can help:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=22127
0 likes   

User avatar
Stephanie
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23843
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:53 am
Location: Glassboro, NJ

#11 Postby Stephanie » Wed Jan 07, 2004 9:45 pm

I do remember that post and the graphs. I think it'll be something out of high school - I just have to keep studying! :wink:

As I started to read about the MJO I instantly thought about that Kelvin wave and lo and behold you had the likelihood of one developing listed. I also then recognized what you all have been saying about the affects on the southern jet stream, and the potential artic air that could be ( and is) streaming down into CONUS.

Thanks for the link!
0 likes   

User avatar
FLguy
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 799
Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2003 5:36 pm
Location: Daytona Beach FL
Contact:

#12 Postby FLguy » Wed Jan 07, 2004 9:47 pm

Stephanie wrote:I do remember that post and the graphs. I think it'll be something out of high school - I just have to keep studying! :wink:

As I started to read about the MJO I instantly thought about that Kelvin wave and lo and behold you had the likelihood of one developing listed. I also then recognized what you all have been saying about the affects on the southern jet stream, and the potential artic air that could be ( and is) streaming down into CONUS.

Thanks for the link!


sure no problem...
0 likes   

donsutherland1
S2K Analyst
S2K Analyst
Posts: 2718
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
Location: New York

#13 Postby donsutherland1 » Wed Jan 07, 2004 10:28 pm

Colin,

At this time, it is my view that the warmup near the end of January will not last more than 10 days or so. This is very preliminary, but that's my initial thought right now.
0 likes   

Anonymous

#14 Postby Anonymous » Wed Jan 07, 2004 10:33 pm

We just fell to 18 degrees, with a dewpoint of 7 degrees. I now think we'll see 12 degrees, maybe even 9 degrees overnight for a low. The ground will be well-frozen and we have very good surface frigidization.

IF we get any snow, it will stick, from Flake 1.






-ARCTIC FREEZE JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Bring It!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
0 likes   

donsutherland1
S2K Analyst
S2K Analyst
Posts: 2718
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
Location: New York

#15 Postby donsutherland1 » Wed Jan 07, 2004 10:35 pm

King of Weather,

I'm not sure whether the right now hypothetical system that could bring a significant snowfall to the East would bring such a snowfall to the Ohio Valley or a separate system would do that. I do believe that the Ohio Valley will have a good chance at seeing a 4"-8" snowfall before the month ends and possibly due to a separate system.

I am quite confident that it will turn brutally cold before the pattern changes. Although the MOS has Columbus at 13 Sunday morning, I believe that the air mass that will come in during the middle or latter part of next week will be colder and send readings to the single digits or colder and I would not rule out the prospect of subzero cold.
0 likes   

Anonymous

#16 Postby Anonymous » Wed Jan 07, 2004 10:40 pm

donsutherland1 wrote:King of Weather,

I'm not sure whether the right now hypothetical system that could bring a significant snowfall to the East would bring such a snowfall to the Ohio Valley or a separate system would do that. I do believe that the Ohio Valley will have a good chance at seeing a 4"-8" snowfall before the month ends and possibly due to a separate system.

I am quite confident that it will turn brutally cold before the pattern changes. Although the MOS has Columbus at 13 Sunday morning, I believe that the air mass that will come in during the middle or latter part of next week will be colder and send readings to the single digits or colder and I would not rule out the prospect of subzero cold.




Don, in Woodbridge VA late next week, What highs can we expect and what overnight lows can we expect?

Is it possible we could see HIGHS in the teens to near 20?





Thanks.


-ARCTIC FREEZE JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Bring It!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
0 likes   

donsutherland1
S2K Analyst
S2K Analyst
Posts: 2718
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
Location: New York

Re: January Update: Severe Cold and Snow Likely Down the Roa

#17 Postby donsutherland1 » Wed Jan 07, 2004 10:40 pm

Thanks, FLguy,

I also fully agree that the Pacific Northwest will finally get a chance to dry out beginning later this week. Hopefully, before then the flooding will not be too severe, though I have concerns about that.

All in all, it's a very exciting pattern.
0 likes   

donsutherland1
S2K Analyst
S2K Analyst
Posts: 2718
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
Location: New York

#18 Postby donsutherland1 » Wed Jan 07, 2004 10:43 pm

Jeb,

If the pattern meets its full potential in going to extremes, I believe Woodbridge might well see a day where highs are in the 18-23 range. For now, that's a big "if" but I do believe that the worst of the cold (or best if one really loves the cold) will not be this week or weekend.
0 likes   

User avatar
FLguy
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 799
Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2003 5:36 pm
Location: Daytona Beach FL
Contact:

Re: January Update: Severe Cold and Snow Likely Down the Roa

#19 Postby FLguy » Wed Jan 07, 2004 10:43 pm

donsutherland1 wrote:Thanks, FLguy,

I also fully agree that the Pacific Northwest will finally get a chance to dry out beginning later this week. Hopefully, before then the flooding will not be too severe, though I have concerns about that.

All in all, it's a very exciting pattern.


sure no problem...a very interesting pattern indeed and one which also has alot of potential for trouble in the EUS come late next week.
0 likes   

donsutherland1
S2K Analyst
S2K Analyst
Posts: 2718
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
Location: New York

#20 Postby donsutherland1 » Wed Jan 07, 2004 10:46 pm

Thanks Stephanie.

If I had to pick a "forecast of the season" so far that really stands out, it is probably RNS'/Erica's ideas ahead of the early December blizzard. It was a superior performance, to say the least.
0 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests