UPDATED 2004 FORECAST....

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UPDATED 2004 FORECAST....

#1 Postby Anonymous » Sun Jan 11, 2004 3:42 pm

I worked hard on an updated, more detailed forecast. If you wish to reply, do so on here or send me a private message. On to my 2004 forecast........

I forecast patterns similar to 2003 with an early start, mostly in the Gulf of Mexico. I have noticed as we all have, an abundance of major landfalling hurricanes. Recent dangerous close calls: Bret, Floyd, Debby; could have been equivilent to Carla in 61, 1926 Miami Storm, Donna in 60, and Audrey in 57. They were not. Therefore, I forecast 2 landfalling major hurricanes in the US this year. One in July in Louisiana, and one in North Carolina in September. As for the ITCZ, I expect a wave of storms/hurricanes like in 1995 and 1998. Now on to my UNOFFICIAL FORECAST....

TS Alex
May 25-31
Subtropical storm Alex forms from a cold front 100 miles north of Bermuda on May 25, and rapidly becomes tropical. Strengthening to 60 mph over 79 degree waters, Alex stays at sea, leaving a trough of low pressure in the Bahamas.

TS Bonnie
June 3-9
A trough of low pressure over the Bahamas becomes better organized on June 2, and becomes TD#2 the next morning, June 3. By that evening, Bonnie has 45 mph winds and is forecast to become a 70 kt hurricane at landfall near Key West. As evacuations just go into effect, they are cancelled on the morning of the 4. That morning, unexpected shear from the SW chews away part of Bonnie's center. TD Bonnie has winds of 25 mph and 1015 mb pressure. On her last breath, shear lets up and Bonnie slowly strengthens until landfall near West Palm Beach, FL on the night of the 5. Winds are sustained at 50 mph gusting to 70 mph. Bonnie weakens to 40 mph when she exits near Sarasota, FL on the afternoon of the 6. She then moves NW making a mid-day landfall near Destin, FL on the 7. Winds are much stronger (AS WAS CASE IN 1995 WITH ERIN) and blow at 65 mph, gusting up to 82 mph at Pensacola. Bonnie dissipates near Mobile, AL on the 9.

H Charley
June 6-13
As Tropical Storm Bonnie crosses Florida, TD #3 forms 50 miles due east of Belize City, Belize. It becomes Tropical Storm Charley on the 7th as it makes landfall in Belize City at 45 mph. By the morning of the 8th, forecasts take Charley (NOW A TD) inland and dissipate it, but later that day, Charley spins North into rare 87-90 degree waters. Forecasts now have TD Charley heading NW into Port Arthur as a category 2 hurricane. Shear is low when he exits the coast near Merida, MX on the evening of the 8th. By the morning of the 9th, NHC, TWC, and many GOMERS are watching a 50 mph storm that is desined to become a monster. 24 hrs later, Hurricane Charley is 100 miles East of Brownsville moving due west at 12. Pressure is 923 MB, and winds are 150 mph. Charley makes a landfall on the morning of the 11 in Boca San Rafael, MX at 150 mph, 922 MB. While not a direct hit on the state, Texas and Mexico both recived category 4 force winds. Charley dissapates on the 13th. Charley is later said to be Mexico's worst hurricane since 1977 with Anita.

TS Danielle
June 21-28
A wave comes off of Africa and becomes TD# 4 on the 21st. It then moves WNW until the 24 when it misses the Virgin Islands as a 70 mph storm named Danielle. It then moves NE away from land and becomes extratropical on the 28 of June.

H Earl
July 4-24
A wave comes off of Africa on July 4 and becomes Tropical Storm Earl just 3 hours later. Earl moves due west until landfall over Barbados on the 9th as an 80 mph hurricane. Earl then turns WNW and rapidly becomes a 100 mph category 2 storm. He strikes Kingston, Jamaica on the 12 as a 105 mph storm. The next day, Cuba gets Earl as a 120 mph major hurricane. On the 14, 15, and 16th Earl spins stationary in the the middle of the Gulf of Mexico strength teetering between 120 mph and 140 mph. On the 17th, Earl turns north toward Louisana as a 140 mph hurricane. Some stay, remembering Lili. But, in the 9 hrs before landfall, Earl's strength hops from 145 mph, 160 mph, to 175 mph. Earl makes landfall near Cameron, LA as a 175 mph hurricane, with a pressure of 910 MB, and 201 mph gusts. Hurricane Earl put Camille in the 2nd "RECENT WORST" category and put a wake-up call to the USA coast, about the new wave of massive and devastating hurricanes.

H Frances
July 8-13
As Earl strengthens in the Atlantic, recon finds a 40 mph Tropical Storm Frances in a cluster of storms 200 miles SSW of Naples, FL. Frances moves rapidly NE and strengthens to a 100 mph hurricane by a landfall near Sarasota, FL on the 10. Damage is like 1995's Erin, and Frances spins into an extratropical system on the 13th. Infact, Earl's outflow spins into that trough venalating Earl even more.

H Gaston
July 24- Aug 1
A large wave comes off of Africa, and becomes TD#7 on the 24th. Two days later, Tropical storm Gaston forms and moves WNW strngthening slowly. Gaston becomes a hurricane on the 28, and reaches a peak of 105 mph 200 miles NE of the islands on the 30th. "Gus" has a huge eye as he spins off into the North Atlantic dying on the 1st.

H Hermine
July 26- Aug 6
Behind Gaston, a very small wave moves west at 20 mph, becoming TD#8 on the 26th. The next day, newborn "Hermine" tracks WNW strengthening to 105 mph by the night of the 29th. On the 31st, Hermine hits Barbados (STILL RECOVERING FROM EARL) as a 135 mph hurricane with 938 MB pressure. Hermine then turns North, skimming Puerto Rico on the 2nd as a 140 mph storm. By the 6th, Hermine died of cold water in the North Atlantic.

H Ivan
Aug 12-Sep 2
A wave comes off of Africa on the 12th and soon becomes TD#9. For 12 days Ivan spins NW, as a 100 mph hurricane. But, a ridge of high pressure builds on the 23rd, and Ivan slowly moves WNW strengthening to 150 mph 300 miles SSE of Cape Fear, NC. Hurricane Ivan then turns NNW until a 125 mph landfall in Morehead City, NC on the 1st. Ivan's very small center dissipates the next day.

H Jeanne
Aug 13-18
A cluster of storms in the Bahamas becomes TD#10 on the 13th, then Jeanne on the 14th. The tropical storm moves slowly NW until a landfall near Daytona Beach, FL as an 80 mph hurriane on the 17th.

H Karl
Sep 10-20
A wave moves west across the Atlantic and becomes TD#11 on the 10th south of Jamaica. The system moves NW slowly strengthening to 90 mph by landfall in Belize City, Belize on the 18. Karl dissipates two days later.

TS Lisa
Sept 22- Oct 3
A wave comes off Africa and becomes TD#12 on the 22. Reaching a peak of 50 mph, "Lisa" does 3 loops while eyes are on Matthew. She dies on the 3rd of October.

TS Matthew
Sept 23-28
The trough of low pressure Karl's outflow went into spins into TD#13 on Sept 23rd 100 miles east of Miami. Then, on the 25, it becomes 50 mph Matthew. "Matt" moves inland as a 70 mph storm near Tybee Island, GA on the 27. Reports showed 72 mph sustained winds, and gusts to 89 mph in Tybee. Also, the satellite at landfall looked much like Claudette's. Matthew is upgraded to a 75 mph hurricane that November by the NHC.

TS Nicole
Oct 5-8
STS Nicole forms SSE of Bermuda and turns tropical as the center moves east of the island. Nicole peaks on the 6th at 55 mph, and dies on the 8th.

H Otto
Nov 2-14
TD#15 spins up in the Western Caribbean on the 2nd and becomes Tropical Storm Otto the next day. For 3 days Otto stays at 60 mph, but on the 7th, he becomes an 85 mph hurricane. Otto hits the Isle of Youth on the 11th as a 135 mph hurricane, and then Summerland Key, FL on the 12th as a 90 mph storm. Otto spins out to sea and dissipates on the 14th.

FINAL STATUS:
15 Named storms
10 hurricanes
5 major hurricanes

Please, tell me what you think or write your own. :D
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Derek Ortt

#2 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Jan 11, 2004 4:25 pm

Maybe a few too many landfalling storms, though we did see similar back in 1996
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Josephine96

#3 Postby Josephine96 » Sun Jan 11, 2004 4:38 pm

I picked 15 named storms also.. I may revise my numbers before June.. but odds are.. I'll stick to my predictions lol
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#4 Postby JCT777 » Mon Jan 12, 2004 10:52 am

Very detailed, Floydbuster. Good work.
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Great Analysis for 2004

#5 Postby KatDaddy » Mon Jan 12, 2004 7:52 pm

For Cameron Parishes sake lets hope you are wrong. A storm of that magnitude would make landfall way to close to Houston-Galveston. If its the size of Andrew we would be ok however if its the size of Allen or Gilbert we would feel hammering affects out of the N.

Spooky Thoughts :eek:
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

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#6 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Jan 12, 2004 10:52 pm

TS Alex
May 25-31
Subtropical storm Alex forms from a cold front 100 miles north of Bermuda on May 25, and rapidly becomes tropical. Strengthening to 60 mph over 79 degree waters, Alex stays at sea, leaving a trough of low pressure in the Bahamas.


Too far N for that early. Bring him about 250 miles S of Bermuda and it could happen.

TS Bonnie
June 3-9
A trough of low pressure over the Bahamas becomes better organized on June 2, and becomes TD#2 the next morning, June 3. By that evening, Bonnie has 45 mph winds and is forecast to become a 70 kt hurricane at landfall near Key West. As evacuations just go into effect, they are cancelled on the morning of the 4. That morning, unexpected shear from the SW chews away part of Bonnie's center. TD Bonnie has winds of 25 mph and 1015 mb pressure. On her last breath, shear lets up and Bonnie slowly strengthens until landfall near West Palm Beach, FL on the night of the 5. Winds are sustained at 50 mph gusting to 70 mph. Bonnie weakens to 40 mph when she exits near Sarasota, FL on the afternoon of the 6. She then moves NW making a mid-day landfall near Destin, FL on the 7. Winds are much stronger (AS WAS CASE IN 1995 WITH ERIN) and blow at 65 mph, gusting up to 82 mph at Pensacola. Bonnie dissipates near Mobile, AL on the 9.


Seems like we would have a weak TD by the GOM. Winds at landfall would be highest in Destin or to the East of there or possibly in the Niceville area on the N shore of Choctawhatchee Bay. Would be almost a zig zag to get there the way you describe and disapate near Mobile(that would assume a WNW track, unlikely this early in season IMO.) More likely to turn NE>

H Charley
June 6-13
As Tropical Storm Bonnie crosses Florida, TD #3 forms 50 miles due east of Belize City, Belize. It becomes Tropical Storm Charley on the 7th as it makes landfall in Belize City at 45 mph. By the morning of the 8th, forecasts take Charley (NOW A TD) inland and dissipate it, but later that day, Charley spins North into rare 87-90 degree waters. Forecasts now have TD Charley heading NW into Port Arthur as a category 2 hurricane. Shear is low when he exits the coast near Merida, MX on the evening of the 8th. By the morning of the 9th, NHC, TWC, and many GOMERS are watching a 50 mph storm that is desined to become a monster. 24 hrs later, Hurricane Charley is 100 miles East of Brownsville moving due west at 12. Pressure is 923 MB, and winds are 150 mph. Charley makes a landfall on the morning of the 11 in Boca San Rafael, MX at 150 mph, 922 MB. While not a direct hit on the state, Texas and Mexico both recived category 4 force winds. Charley dissapates on the 13th. Charley is later said to be Mexico's worst hurricane since 1977 with Anita.


Possible, but seems a little early for one this strong.

TS Danielle
June 21-28
A wave comes off of Africa and becomes TD# 4 on the 21st. It then moves WNW until the 24 when it misses the Virgin Islands as a 70 mph storm named Danielle. It then moves NE away from land and becomes extratropical on the 28 of June.


Early for CV but with the developing patterns we've seen, quite possible.

H Earl
July 4-24
A wave comes off of Africa on July 4 and becomes Tropical Storm Earl just 3 hours later. Earl moves due west until landfall over Barbados on the 9th as an 80 mph hurricane. Earl then turns WNW and rapidly becomes a 100 mph category 2 storm. He strikes Kingston, Jamaica on the 12 as a 105 mph storm. The next day, Cuba gets Earl as a 120 mph major hurricane. On the 14, 15, and 16th Earl spins stationary in the the middle of the Gulf of Mexico strength teetering between 120 mph and 140 mph. On the 17th, Earl turns north toward Louisana as a 140 mph hurricane. Some stay, remembering Lili. But, in the 9 hrs before landfall, Earl's strength hops from 145 mph, 160 mph, to 175 mph. Earl makes landfall near Cameron, LA as a 175 mph hurricane, with a pressure of 910 MB, and 201 mph gusts. Hurricane Earl put Camille in the 2nd "RECENT WORST" category and put a wake-up call to the USA coast, about the new wave of massive and devastating hurricanes.


Again a little early for a storm of this magnitude but not impossible. Still has to go a little to eclipse Camille windwise, but definitely a horrible killer if it happens because it would inundate ALL of S LA and probably destroy cities such as Lake Charles and Lafayette. Don't even think of finding much of anything left S of I10 if it happerns. A SCARY SCENARIO INDEED with strong effects from W MS to the Houston area.

H Frances
July 8-13
As Earl strengthens in the Atlantic, recon finds a 40 mph Tropical Storm Frances in a cluster of storms 200 miles SSW of Naples, FL. Frances moves rapidly NE and strengthens to a 100 mph hurricane by a landfall near Sarasota, FL on the 10. Damage is like 1995's Erin, and Frances spins into an extratropical system on the 13th. Infact, Earl's outflow spins into that trough venalating Earl even more.


HMMMM??? Good scenario. Not sure about a rapid NE movement and that much strengthening.

H Gaston
July 24- Aug 1
A large wave comes off of Africa, and becomes TD#7 on the 24th. Two days later, Tropical storm Gaston forms and moves WNW strengthening slowly. Gaston becomes a hurricane on the 28, and reaches a peak of 105 mph 200 miles NE of the islands on the 30th. "Gus" has a huge eye as he spins off into the North Atlantic dying on the 1st.


Possible. G storm this early is rare!!!

H Hermine
July 26- Aug 6
Behind Gaston, a very small wave moves west at 20 mph, becoming TD#8 on the 26th. The next day, newborn "Hermine" tracks WNW strengthening to 105 mph by the night of the 29th. On the 31st, Hermine hits Barbados (STILL RECOVERING FROM EARL) as a 135 mph hurricane with 938 MB pressure. Hermine then turns North, skimming Puerto Rico on the 2nd as a 140 mph storm. By the 6th, Hermine died of cold water in the North Atlantic.


Possible, but not probable that close on the heels of Gaston, IMO.

H Ivan
Aug 12-Sep 2
A wave comes off of Africa on the 12th and soon becomes TD#9. For 12 days Ivan spins NW, as a 100 mph hurricane. But, a ridge of high pressure builds on the 23rd, and Ivan slowly moves WNW strengthening to 150 mph 300 miles SSE of Cape Fear, NC. Hurricane Ivan then turns NNW until a 125 mph landfall in Morehead City, NC on the 1st. Ivan's very small center dissipates the next day.


I would expect a stronger landfall, maybe 135 mph.

H Jeanne
Aug 13-18
A cluster of storms in the Bahamas becomes TD#10 on the 13th, then Jeanne on the 14th. The tropical storm moves slowly NW until a landfall near Daytona Beach, FL as an 80 mph hurriane on the 17th.


Too close to Ivan Maybe for it to strenthen that much.

H Karl
Sep 10-20
A wave moves west across the Atlantic and becomes TD#11 on the 10th south of Jamaica. The system moves NW slowly strengthening to 90 mph by landfall in Belize City, Belize on the 18. Karl dissipates two days later.


No real comment. Completely possible.

TS Lisa
Sept 22- Oct 3
A wave comes off Africa and becomes TD#12 on the 22. Reaching a peak of 50 mph, "Lisa" does 3 loops while eyes are on Matthew. She dies on the 3rd of October.


A loopy storm. What is causing the loops?

TS Matthew
Sept 23-28
The trough of low pressure Karl's outflow went into spins into TD#13 on Sept 23rd 100 miles east of Miami. Then, on the 25, it becomes 50 mph Matthew. "Matt" moves inland as a 70 mph storm near Tybee Island, GA on the 27. Reports showed 72 mph sustained winds, and gusts to 89 mph in Tybee. Also, the satellite at landfall looked much like Claudette's. Matthew is upgraded to a 75 mph hurricane that November by the NHC.


Definitely a possibility!

TS Nicole
Oct 5-8
STS Nicole forms SSE of Bermuda and turns tropical as the center moves east of the island. Nicole peaks on the 6th at 55 mph, and dies on the 8th.


Seems late in season for one to form that far N.????

H Otto
Nov 2-14
TD#15 spins up in the Western Caribbean on the 2nd and becomes Tropical Storm Otto the next day. For 3 days Otto stays at 60 mph, but on the 7th, he becomes an 85 mph hurricane. Otto hits the Isle of Youth on the 11th as a 135 mph hurricane, and then Summerland Key, FL on the 12th as a 90 mph storm. Otto spins out to sea and dissipates on the 14th.


Yep, this could happen for sure!!!

FINAL STATUS:
15 Named storms
10 hurricanes
5 major hurricanes


Please, tell me what you think or write your own.

Without any study(like some of my comments above) my preliminary is
15/6/4
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#7 Postby mitchell » Tue Jan 13, 2004 8:13 am

Seven storms before August 1 and only two after Sept 28? Pretty "front loaded" to me but stranger things have certainly happened.
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Anonymous

#8 Postby Anonymous » Wed Jan 14, 2004 10:35 am

I feel that the Gulf Coast is due. Also, I think Northeast Florida will be battered this season.
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#9 Postby Derecho » Mon Jan 19, 2004 12:34 am

JCT777 wrote:Very detailed, Floydbuster. Good work.


"Detailed" does not = Good.

In this case, "Detailed" = "Unrealistic"
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#10 Postby Derecho » Mon Jan 19, 2004 12:36 am

~Floydbuster wrote:I feel that the Gulf Coast is due. Also, I think Northeast Florida will be battered this season.


Unlike earthquakes, there's no such thing as "Due" in terms of hurricane landfall areas.
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ColdFront77

#11 Postby ColdFront77 » Mon Jan 19, 2004 2:00 am

The whole purpose of this thread was for fun, as it is impossible to
forecast where and when tropical cyclones will make landfall.
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#12 Postby Steve H. » Mon Jan 19, 2004 4:42 pm

Boy, you guys are predicting an active season! What's the latest on ENSO?
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Anonymous

#13 Postby Anonymous » Thu Jan 22, 2004 10:11 am

Dr. Gray's forecast calls for yet again another active season. My forecast is 15 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 majors. Comparable to 1996 with 13 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes. Yet I am forecasting 2 tropical storm landfalls, 6 hurricane landfalls, and 2 major hurricane landfalls in the United States. While my forecasts might seem unreal to some, think of seasons like 1933 withe 21 named storms and possibly more. In the next few decades, we may have a few 1933's.
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