This is Interesting.... on 00z ETA

[Guest]

The QPF and the RH dont seem to match...

keeping in mind that QPF is over a 6 or 12 hr period the RH field looks EXTREMELY dry when you look at the 6 hr QPF

here is the 6 hr QPF 30-36 hrs looks like a GOOD snow over central and southern NJ right?


Now here is the RH field AT 30 hrs ..... Look how DRY it is.... Typically accumulating snows only fall from 90% RH

WHERE IS THE 90% RH? that one Blob over delamrva is it? that little blob which moves from sw PA to s NJ delware bay is going to cause ALL that QPF???

[HuffWx]

That is interesting...Had not been able to scan the mods in depth...


Huff

[Guest]

excellent point...Of course Quincy just looked at SLP and QPF and determined that his map would verify...

[Anonymous]

Does this mean there might be less snow for the DE region from this storm?





-JEB

[PhillySnowMan24]

Honestly, I noticed this for days. I didn't see it as such a big deal because it has been doing it for many runs now.

[Anonymous]

Interesting observation, DT. Now my question is do you think this implies that the decent snows will still be falling but more towards the vicinity of the high 700 RH, or does this mean little significant snow for anyone?

[dg13x]

If I remember correctly, clippers are usually associated with high RH fields, as most of the precip falls in a rather short period of time unlike a prolonged snow storm....

I don't think it'll have much bearing with this storm and besides, it would then seem to contradict ur own forecast for this storm.

[joshskeety]

Wow, DT, you may be on to something with that. I did not go into that much depth into the ETA. I wonder what that means or if its just flurries keeping the Dewpoints up. I have thought the past couple of runs that it seems somewhat silly to have that much of a dry slot. I was also wondering if the ETA is looking at this Low as more of a downsloping event, because no moisture makes it over the Apps. Kind of like lake effect or lake enhanced snow causing it to get confusing QPF totals. I mean if you look at the models, the winds are not N or NW to cause downsloping so I am not too sure what keeps the moisture over or west of the mountains. At least not at the onslought of the Low. Am I wrong?

Josh

That is interesting...Had not been able to scan the mods in depth...


Huff

[WoodstockWX]

excellent point...Of course Quincy just looked at SLP and QPF and determined that his map would verify...

it's called analyzing the SREF...

[Guest]

excellent point...Of course Quincy just looked at SLP and QPF and determined that his map would verify...

it's called analyzing the SREF...

You said the ETA nailed it.....That's what I was talking about....How the ETA, IF it is correct, still does not accord with your map....Now DT has made another point about the ETA

[Guest]

I dont know what IF anything it means. I could be making a mountain out of a molehill...

If I remember correctly, clippers are usually associated with high RH fields, as most of the precip falls in a rather short period of time unlike a prolonged snow storm....

I don't think it'll have much bearing with this storm and besides, it would then seem to contradict ur own forecast for this storm.

[Craig286]

That blob looks like its near me in fredericksburg va....maybe ill see a flurry or two

[Anonymous]

At this point it doesn't seem likely for measurable snow in VA.






-JEB