Possibly Significant Winterstorm for Ohio Valley in 3-4 days

[Buckeye]

That's right, could it be our turn finally? Little advanced notice fanfare but models are suddenly coming around to bringing substantial precip as far north as northern OH late saturday into sunday. Hey just remember this, the biggest ones usually come with the least warning.

If 12zgfs were to verify this would be our first significant snow since last years PDstorm. The eta has the precip, but also wants to bring warm air north with it, if the eta is right it would be a snow to rain event...I don't know which scenario makes more sense but at least some good news for all of us in the OV currently watching that clipper scoot to our north and east.

I'll try to update new model runs and my weenie thoughts in this thread until the storm either verifies or busts.

[rainstorm]

oh well, zip for va

[JCT777]

Buckeye - that's funny how your area goes from no storm, to the ETA indicating so much warm that it rains. I would believe that if you get anything from this storm, it is snow.

[Guest]

Dont get too ocver worked here ... a basic reading of the 500 MB shows this is NOT a big one for you and its Not going to the Ohio valley...
will you get snow snow? sure.

Its not a direct hit the pattern cleaqrly shows the 500 trough over tx has to stay south.... and the northern energy is not going to phase

That's right, could it be our turn finally? Little advanced notice fanfare but models are suddenly coming around to bringing substantial precip as far north as northern OH late saturday into sunday. Hey just remember this, the biggest ones usually come with the least warning.

If 12zgfs were to verify this would be our first significant snow since last years PDstorm. The eta has the precip, but also wants to bring warm air north with it, if the eta is right it would be a snow to rain event...I don't know which scenario makes more sense but at least some good news for all of us in the OV currently watching that clipper scoot to our north and east.

I'll try to update new model runs and my weenie thoughts in this thread until the storm either verifies or busts.

[powderfreak]

Where is the 12z ETA going with that system after H84? Any chance of that thing interacting with the northern branch and coming into New England?

[JCT777]

powderfreak - At this point, I would say the chance of it coming to New England is pretty low. This is based on the sub-950 MB low near Newfoundland. It seems to me that the ETA does not have a good handle on the system.

[powderfreak]

Out of curiousity...does anyone have a link to a site where I can get ETAXX graphics or anything out past H84?

-Scott

[Lafayette WX]

Don't see this one being significant at all. Snow, yeah maybe. Seems it is a quick hit of some frozen variety and done. Most of the moisture stays south and east of the Ohio Valley.

[Hoosierwxdude]

It appears that a corridor somewhere in the OH valley could see a moderate/significant overrunning frozen event, but location and the extent is difficult to pin down right now. The flipping of some models (ahem ETA ahem) isn't helping but needless to say the op 18z run looks suspicious. Good thing that we'll be coming into the SREF range very soon.

Meanwhile, watch the Baja area low spinning away on satellite...nice to look at.