Models continue to play catch up ...

Stormsfury · #1 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Jan 20, 2004 8:50 pm

http://www.stormsfury1.com

(My forecast/prognostic discussion) ...

Valkhorn · #2 Postby **Valkhorn** » Tue Jan 20, 2004 9:06 pm

I'm in total agreement.

It's amazing how many carbon-copy mets around the US are saying that a southeast ridge and western trough will dominate the weather next week into next weekend when clearly, again with the greenland blocking and NAO in the tank the models are not going to be able to handle it, especially the GFS.

Yet they keep using the GFS.

Great discussion by the way. Kudos.

Chris the Weather Man · #3 Postby **Chris the Weather Man** » Tue Jan 20, 2004 9:25 pm

Valkhorn wrote:I'm in total agreement.

It's amazing how many carbon-copy mets around the US are saying that a southeast ridge and western trough will dominate the weather next week into next weekend when clearly, again with the greenland blocking and NAO in the tank the models are not going to be able to handle it, especially the GFS.

Yet they keep using the GFS.

Great discussion by the way. Kudos.

Yes, They have no idea what the heck they are talking about!

aveosmth · #4 Postby **aveosmth** » Tue Jan 20, 2004 9:31 pm

I know your discussion is centered mostly around the Southeast, but I was wondering what you think of the strong vort headed for Southern California, late this weekend & into monday?

Anonymous · #5 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Jan 20, 2004 11:03 pm

Stormsfury wrote:www.stormsfury1.com

(My forecast/prognostic discussion) ...

I love your discussion, and I just got back from a nice, long , drawn-out 3 mile jebwalk tonight

Ahhhhhhh...................Temperature was 19, dewpoint was 3, with a nice refreshing 10mph breeze out of the NNW that kept me nice and cool throughout the jebwalk

The ground was wonderfully hard as steel; I walked on a few patches of ice left over from our last rainstorm that had frozen....................................That was a nice jebwalk. I blasted music throughout the jebwalk. I pulled in nice, luxurious breaths of cool, fresh arctic air

Ah the joys of a mid-winter jebwalk!!!!

-JEB

jpp5862 · #6 Postby **jpp5862** » Wed Jan 21, 2004 7:48 am

Great discussion SF, as always. I noticed this morning that the GSP NWS office is still hugging the GFS on this one. They have pretty much removed all wintry precip from the forecast and are forecasting all rain for even the northern tier of NC. I have read lots of discussions on the possible SE ridge coming back, but your discussion makes good points on why it won't. Great job!

Weather4Life23 · #7 Postby **Weather4Life23** » Wed Jan 21, 2004 2:33 pm

Great Discussion SF. It seems like local and TV mets do not realize what the strong NAO and Greenland block do in situations like these. If i remember correctly the severe ice storm of December 2002, they had no clue how bad it would be. They said it would start out as freezing rain. Insteas it started out as 2 inches of snow, then sleet then the .5 acretion of ice. Once again they seem to be wrong

Stormsfury · #8 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Jan 21, 2004 3:40 pm

jpp5862 wrote:Great discussion SF, as always. I noticed this morning that the GSP NWS office is still hugging the GFS on this one. They have pretty much removed all wintry precip from the forecast and are forecasting all rain for even the northern tier of NC. I have read lots of discussions on the possible SE ridge coming back, but your discussion makes good points on why it won't. Great job!

I'm getting ready to see what the new model guidance is playing out and hopefully new assumptions are correct today ... the weird thing is during the PDS storm, there WAS a SE ridge, but that backdoor front that came down from the NNE with the strong Eastern Canadian HIGH (1046mb) just shoved down extremely cold and dry air down the east side of the Appalachains. The fact of the matter is that even the best model guidance for Ageostrophic Gradient (ETA, MM5 and the higher res models) still underestimate the amount of cold air at the surface ... always has been, always will be. And thanks for the compliments.

SF

Stormsfury · #9 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Jan 21, 2004 3:44 pm

Weather4Life23 wrote:Great Discussion SF. It seems like local and TV mets do not realize what the strong NAO and Greenland block do in situations like these. If i remember correctly the severe ice storm of December 2002, they had no clue how bad it would be. They said it would start out as freezing rain. Insteas it started out as 2 inches of snow, then sleet then the .5 acretion of ice. Once again they seem to be wrong

The model guidance completely underestimated the low-level cold air, though several higher res models showed good AG. Also, throw in the fact, that unlike the PDS storm, the Dec 2002 storm, the high was building in as the event unfolded and wasn't as strong as the PDS storm's cold air damming high. However, evaporational cooling effects caused a lot of havoc as the air with the high that built in was VERY DRY and the dymanic effects that took place caused temperatures to plummet, in some cases as much as 15º with the onset of the evaporating precip.

SF

Weather4Life23 · #10 Postby **Weather4Life23** » Wed Jan 21, 2004 3:48 pm

Thanks for the info SF. Im interested in hearing what you have to say about the new model guidance that comes out soon.

Models continue to play catch up ...

Models continue to play catch up ...

Stormsfury

Re: Models continue to play catch up ...

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