NC/VA in the battleground for ICE problems Sun/Mon...

[Stormsfury]

And a decent shot of snow MA region ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com

(My forecast/prognostic discussion)

[Anonymous]

Nice analysis.


Could be a good mix event Sun maybe very very early Mon.


BUT folks, this is still a good 3 days out. Despite all the ebullience on the boards, I continue to be cautious. I have learned all too well through years and years of gut-wrenching disappointments, and this season for the N VA region has been one of near-misses and some snow events, two of which smacked Woodbridge not only with good snow, but also with good rain which pretty much melted the snow that had fallen.

This winter's track record plus the proven tendency toward north tracks associated with storms brings me to the conclusion that we all need to be very, very, very, very, very, very cautious.


Also it may warm up next week with RAIN.

Again, we all need to be cautious.

This winter in the Mid Atlantic is no 2002-2003.


-JEB

[Chris the Weather Man]

Jeb. Do not worry! There will be snow for ya!

[FLguy]

Nice analysis.


Could be a good mix event Sun maybe very very early Mon.


BUT folks, this is still a good 3 days out. Despite all the ebullience on the boards, I continue to be cautious. I have learned all too well through years and years of gut-wrenching disappointments, and this season for the N VA region has been one of near-misses and some snow events, two of which smacked Woodbridge not only with good snow, but also with good rain which pretty much melted the snow that had fallen.

This winter's track record plus the proven tendency toward north tracks associated with storms brings me to the conclusion that we all need to be very, very, very, very, very, very cautious.


Also it may warm up next week with RAIN.

Again, we all need to be cautious.

This winter in the Mid Atlantic is no 2002-2003.


-JEB

jeb ---- i still feel that your "big event" per se is coming in feb once the MJO kicks in.

[FLguy]

And a decent shot of snow MA region ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com

(My forecast/prognostic discussion)

agreed. the models always have a hard time recognizing low level CAD especially when were dealing with a rather strong ageostrophic component. the ETA is in bias mode.

[verycoolnin]

What do you (anyone) see for Yorkcounty (25 miles NNW of Norfolk, VA)? My thinking is snow/ice until about mid day then ending as all rain late. I'm no expert, (yes, I know it's hard to believe ) I just look at the daily models.

[Anonymous]

Getting really chilly here at midnight Jan 22/23.................

22 degrees with NNW winds at 19 to 25 gusting to 35mph!! Dewpoint 4 degrees. It's not mild out there anymore!



-JEB

[Stormsfury]

Just a quick update from work ...

The last model runs (6z cycle) are coming in MUCH COLDER at the SFC, and looking to be ... a potential significant ICING event in NC, and VA (possibilities of more frozen than freezing) ...

The SR models are finally realizing the potency of CAD and with continued trends, I expect to see the wedge push even FURTHER SOUTH than the model progs ... amazing ...

Dewpoints today in North Carolina and South Carolina are running in the single digits to single digits BELOW ZERO (VERY DRY SFC Airmass and average RH's are running between 18%-25%) ...

SF

[rainstorm]

Nice analysis.


Could be a good mix event Sun maybe very very early Mon.


BUT folks, this is still a good 3 days out. Despite all the ebullience on the boards, I continue to be cautious. I have learned all too well through years and years of gut-wrenching disappointments, and this season for the N VA region has been one of near-misses and some snow events, two of which smacked Woodbridge not only with good snow, but also with good rain which pretty much melted the snow that had fallen.

This winter's track record plus the proven tendency toward north tracks associated with storms brings me to the conclusion that we all need to be very, very, very, very, very, very cautious.


Also it may warm up next week with RAIN.

Again, we all need to be cautious.

This winter in the Mid Atlantic is no 2002-2003.


-JEB

good point jeb, the heavy snow seems to going to be between philly and dc. i dont think most of va will see alot of snow. most areas will see a brief snow/sleet/zr combo going over to rain. whenever i see the heavy snow get anywhere north of dc, i think the va chances for snow decrease quite a bit. the mountains may be interesting though. maybe the cold air will dig in deeper though . always a chance of that. the thing that worries me is it will be fairly "warm" sat, and then warm up on monday, so the cold air is really going to have to be impressive on sunday.

[Suncat]

Temperature in Raleigh at 1:00 PM was 39 F with a WNW wind of 10 mph and gusts up to 18 mph. The dewpoint was at 6 F. It **feels** much colder, tho.

Any thoughts on the amount of the frozen stuff, especially ice, we folks in the Triangle might be getting?

[Weather4Life23]

Temperature in Raleigh at 1:00 PM was 39 F with a WNW wind of 10 mph and gusts up to 18 mph. The dewpoint was at 6 F. It **feels** much colder, tho.

Any thoughts on the amount of the frozen stuff, especially ice, we folks in the Triangle might be getting?

Hello fellow Cary poster, Its still uncertain how much, but its possible it could significant

[verycoolnin]

Accuweather's now calling for an all frozen precip event. Not that I trust them too much, it was just interesting.

[Anonymous]

It's really dropping off now in Woodbridge VA....................We hit 27 for a high, but its already down to 24 and falling, dewpoint is -2 and the wind is N at 5 gusts to 11.

It's nice and crisp. Maybe we'll get lucky and dip to 15 before the light snow/flurries arrive mid-evening........



-JEB