A demonstration of CAD at work, and why NC/VA get hammered..

Stormsfury · #1 Postby **Stormsfury** » Fri Jan 23, 2004 8:49 pm

http://www.stormsfury1.com

(My forecast/prognostic discussion) ...

More of an overview tonight on WHY many are completely UNDERESTIMATING the potential for SIGNIFICANT ICING in Western/Central NC tonight ...

SF

Stormsfury · #2 Postby **Stormsfury** » Fri Jan 23, 2004 8:55 pm

One other thing I forgot to note:

SF

#3 Postby **HeartofNC** » Fri Jan 23, 2004 9:07 pm

SF - is this to start to happen TONIGHT?

Anonymous · #4 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Jan 23, 2004 9:09 pm

Excellent discussion SF!!!!!!

WOW! The CAD is trending colder and colder, thus anywhere the frzra falls there will be mucho trouble with ice issues on the roads. I can see from the diagrams that VA will be dominated by snow throughout Sunday Jan 25 and possibly on into Mon Jan 26.

If the CAD is trending colder and colder, together with the fact that we are getting to within 48 hrs of the event, that suggests to me a VERIFICATION of the progged snow totals over the VA/NC/MD/PA/NJ FA. Indeed, it may be necessary to bump UP some of these snow and ice-accretion totals!! The ETA is trending wetter.

Yup, this could turn out to be one HUMDINGER of a storm!!!!!!!!!!!!!

WOW!!! Can you IMAGINE 12 inches of snow in N VA?

WOW is all I can say....................................

JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!! YEAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :jump:

#5 Postby **HeartofNC** » Fri Jan 23, 2004 9:14 pm

Thank God the TP was buy one get one free at Harris Teeter today! LOL I stocked up on meat at Sam's yesterday! LOL! As long as we have power I'll be happy - if not, we got a kerosene heater! (and I gotta warm hubby!) :wink:

JQ Public · #6 Postby **JQ Public** » Fri Jan 23, 2004 9:18 pm

the colder this thing trends...the more our roads will be a problem than power outages. Sleet keeps us out of school for a loooooooooooooooooong time

Anonymous · #7 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Jan 23, 2004 9:23 pm

On a more sober note folks, especially those of you in NC, PLEASE try NOT to drive in this!!! In some localities there will be measurable snow, then sleet, then freezing rain (frzra or ZR) on top of that. When you have air temps BELOW 32 degrees PLUS frzra on top of snow on roads and you are driving on that, YOU ARE ASKING FOR TROUBLE!!!! The freezing rain falls on the snow in the below-freezing air and freezes on the snow. Auto tires compact the snow then the frzra falls onto it and freezes. Soon there is a lot of ice and things get very very dicey with little or NO TRACTION and folks start sliding into one another!!!!

PLEASE STAY OFF THE ROADS during this storm, especially if your region experiences the freezing rain!!!!!

-JEB

Colin · #8 Postby **Colin** » Fri Jan 23, 2004 9:25 pm

Yup, MD, NC, VA, and MD are going to get a pretty if not VERY significant storm! :o Keep us updated, especially you Jeb!

Anonymous · #9 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Jan 23, 2004 9:31 pm

Colin wrote:Yup, MD, NC, VA, and MD are going to get a pretty if not VERY significant storm! :o Keep us updated, especially you Jeb!

Yep Colin, You can Rest Assured that I will do just that!!!!

The Jebcast Weatherplex will be open for the next 3 days or so lol!!!

-JEB!!!!!!!!

QCWx · #10 Postby **QCWx** » Fri Jan 23, 2004 9:47 pm

I can vouch for IP being slick with ZR on top of it. Thats what we ended up with from the PDS and it was the slickest stuff I'd ever seen. It was pure ice about 2 1/2 inches thick on the roads. It took FOREVER to melt too.

Anonymous · #11 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Jan 23, 2004 10:03 pm

QCWx wrote:I can vouch for IP being slick with ZR on top of it. Thats what we ended up with from the PDS and it was the slickest stuff I'd ever seen. It was pure ice about 2 1/2 inches thick on the roads. It took FOREVER to melt too.

Yeah I know well what you are getting at.

FEB 9-10, 1994 It was a Thursday Night.

We had a forecast for snow and sleet. It was 19 degrees and cloudy. I was out doing another jebwalk. It was crisp out. The roads were frigid.

It started as FRZRA, then FRZRA+. The rain fell and turned to ice the instant it hit the pavement. It was 19 degrees and everything was super-cold. Within seconds the roads were slicker than wet teflon and people were slipping and sliding. Folks were having trouble walking and driving alike. I saw cars going sideways on Dale Boulevard. It would have been comical, if it hadn't been so damn dangerous. Then the FRZRA+ mixed with sleet balls. That stuff just piled up!!! Then the precipitation changed to ALL SLEET!!!! The sleet became heavy at times!! It hurt if you didn't have a hat or hood. Man it was so crisp out there!!! I can still remember that, even now. The sleet balls piled up. I made my way home. The sleet balls acted like ball bearings underfoot.

We got three inches' worth of sleet balls. The next day, the whole mess froze into a solid sheet of ice. We actually had a glacier here in N VA!!! It warmed into the 30s, the 40s, even the low 50s, and pools of water formed on the newly-formed Piedmont Glacier, but the ice wouldn't melt. The sun would go down and the temp would plunge 20 degrees in an hour.

That glacier took one hell of a L-O-N-G time to melt.......................

-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Stormsfury · #12 Postby **Stormsfury** » Fri Jan 23, 2004 10:51 pm

Ok, here's the LATEST 21Z SREF ensembles...feast your eyes, peoples...

SF

Stormsfury · #13 Postby **Stormsfury** » Fri Jan 23, 2004 10:58 pm

Compare the 9z cycle to this run ... colder at the same time frame, eh??

Anonymous · #14 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Jan 23, 2004 11:02 pm

Hey, so I'm just a dime-a-dozen weather weenie, but it looks to me as if N VA, MD, NJ, and PA could be in for 7 to 10 inches of snow, and there could be a couple 12-inch lollipops in the mix.

Sounds fine to me!!!!! :ggreen:

JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Stormsfury · #15 Postby **Stormsfury** » Fri Jan 23, 2004 11:03 pm

Here's the 21z SREF ensemble run for the same hour from the 9z cycle ...

A demonstration of CAD at work, and why NC/VA get hammered..

A demonstration of CAD at work, and why NC/VA get hammered..

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