12z Euro is probably ALL SNOW PHL points N--RUC corresponds

[NJWxGuy]

The new 12z European is implying a scenario largely different from that of the ETA/MM5's. At 12z Tue the 850mb 0C line is S of PHL stretching just S of BWI to across ILG over to ACY. By 12z Wed the sfc low is just SE of Cape Cod at 988mb (I think). This would imply FAR LESS mixing from ILG NEward into C NJ than was once anticipated and says the 18z model set is complete garbage.

The RUC is EVEN colder on the 21z run through 9z Tue with the -2C line running through PHL and due E towards the Jersey Coastline. The 0C line is running from N VA S of DCA, BWI and cuts through C DE to just over Cape May, NJ.

Looking at current real-time data/obs, I must say that I concur. The 18z data was far too warm for its projections of the sfc temps at 00z this evening. PHL was forecast to be in the mid 20s already, instead it's 20 degrees with surround burbs in NJ and PA still in the teens! The wedge continues to strengthen with associated 1037mb high over QC. A mesoscale feature that is actually enhancing the CAD signature is the weak sfc low due E of Cape Hatteras, whose effects have probably gone unnoticed on the data. This may also be a result of the strong convection off the SE coastline helping to lower pressures and create "meso-lows". I've seen it before and a classic example is the Christmas Noreaster of 2002. If that is any kind of an analog, expect the snow/ice line to jump extremely quickly come tomorrow afternoon, and most areas that were supposed to be IP/ZR will never even change over.

[Chris the Weather Man]

THank You, For the Information NJwxGuy (Andy, I say 14-20 inches west of NYC, Do you agree? If not, Could you correct me? BTW, Do you mind, If I e-mail you once in a while? If not I will understand....... Thank You, If You, Have AIM... Let me know. IF you, won't give it to me, Again I will understand

[TheWeatherZone]

Thanks for the update Andy. I'm sitting with a current temp of 20. NWS said last night it would be around 30 right now, not even close. The cold air sure is stubborn, and dosen't look like it wants to leave all that quickly.


Mike~

[DelStormLover]

"and most areas that were supposed to be IP/ZR will never even change over."
Do you mean theyll stay all snow or all ip/zr?


Does this change your thinking for S DE?

[VortexMax]

The new 12z European is implying a scenario largely different from that of the ETA/MM5's. At 12z Tue the 850mb 0C line is S of PHL stretching just S of BWI to across ILG over to ACY. By 12z Wed the sfc low is just SE of Cape Cod at 988mb (I think). This would imply FAR LESS mixing from ILG NEward into C NJ than was once anticipated and says the 18z model set is complete garbage.

The RUC is EVEN colder on the 21z run through 9z Tue with the -2C line running through PHL and due E towards the Jersey Coastline. The 0C line is running from N VA S of DCA, BWI and cuts through C DE to just over Cape May, NJ.

Looking at current real-time data/obs, I must say that I concur. The 18z data was far too warm for its projections of the sfc temps at 00z this evening. PHL was forecast to be in the mid 20s already, instead it's 20 degrees with surround burbs in NJ and PA still in the teens! The wedge continues to strengthen with associated 1037mb high over QC. A mesoscale feature that is actually enhancing the CAD signature is the weak sfc low due E of Cape Hatteras, whose effects have probably gone unnoticed on the data. This may also be a result of the strong convection off the SE coastline helping to lower pressures and create "meso-lows". I've seen it before and a classic example is the Christmas Noreaster of 2002. If that is any kind of an analog, expect the snow/ice line to jump extremely quickly come tomorrow afternoon, and most areas that were supposed to be IP/ZR will never even change over.

Agree. Nice observation. Given the arctic dome in place, I don't see the surface low being too close to the coast. Warm air intrusion will be a factor along the immediate coast, but I'd be surprised if LI or coastal NNJ/SNE sees more than a few hrs of sleet at MOST. I'm more concerned about where surface low develops as a snowfall factor.

[Anonymous]

It should be very interesting the way all this plays out.

[donsutherland1]

Good discussion, Andy.

Today's weak cold air advection was a welcome development. Let's see what the soundings will reveal. I look forward to the storm.

[NJWxGuy]

The new 12z European is implying a scenario largely different from that of the ETA/MM5's. At 12z Tue the 850mb 0C line is S of PHL stretching just S of BWI to across ILG over to ACY. By 12z Wed the sfc low is just SE of Cape Cod at 988mb (I think). This would imply FAR LESS mixing from ILG NEward into C NJ than was once anticipated and says the 18z model set is complete garbage.

The RUC is EVEN colder on the 21z run through 9z Tue with the -2C line running through PHL and due E towards the Jersey Coastline. The 0C line is running from N VA S of DCA, BWI and cuts through C DE to just over Cape May, NJ.

Looking at current real-time data/obs, I must say that I concur. The 18z data was far too warm for its projections of the sfc temps at 00z this evening. PHL was forecast to be in the mid 20s already, instead it's 20 degrees with surround burbs in NJ and PA still in the teens! The wedge continues to strengthen with associated 1037mb high over QC. A mesoscale feature that is actually enhancing the CAD signature is the weak sfc low due E of Cape Hatteras, whose effects have probably gone unnoticed on the data. This may also be a result of the strong convection off the SE coastline helping to lower pressures and create "meso-lows". I've seen it before and a classic example is the Christmas Noreaster of 2002. If that is any kind of an analog, expect the snow/ice line to jump extremely quickly come tomorrow afternoon, and most areas that were supposed to be IP/ZR will never even change over.

Agree. Nice observation. Given the arctic dome in place, I don't see the surface low being too close to the coast. Warm air intrusion will be a factor along the immediate coast, but I'd be surprised if LI or coastal NNJ/SNE sees more than a few hrs of sleet at MOST. I'm more concerned about where surface low develops as a snowfall factor.

Well the thing is, if the wedge is much stronger it creates a much more intense, but further E coastal front and perhaps will lead to more deepening. Bombogenesis possible? We'll see...

[Dave C]

The coastal front is always an interesting dynamic for folks living in SE Mass. The big storm in early Dec dropped 23 in. in Taunton(about 10 miles west of me) while we received 18 in(both 2 day totals). The coastal front had set-up along the I 95 corrider and enhanced snowfall occured in that swath. With a colder dome establised this time around as well as colder water temps(36-38deg.offshore to our east) the coastal front should be closer to the coast or over Cape Cod(which has ice around it even near Nantucket island). Quite the cold Jan!!

[LMolineux]

Well you cant always look at surface Data you gotta look at the soundings also look at all levels even a slim wedge of above freezing temps could spell sleet or freezing rain. Dont let it fool you. So we shall see what comes out in the end. 4-8 in Philly N/W more like 5-9. But think lower to middle of those #'s We could also see up to an inch of sleet and or 1/8 inch of freezing rain. But that is sorta ruled lower and almost out for freezing rain.