AFD from OAX...Might be Interesting Next Week

[Guest]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
241 PM CST WED JAN 28 2004

.DISCUSSION...
COLD TEMPERATURES AND SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE COLD ACROSS THE SNOW-PACKED CWA WITH
NEGATIVE READINGS NORTH TO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. EVEN
COLDER AIR WAS NOTED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NEGATIVE TEENS AND
20S OVER NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA. WILL SEE OFF AND
ON CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL OFF FAIRLY WELL TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS DROPPING TO NEAR
-10. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT AS WELL...SO THE MENTION OF FLURRIES IS STILL GOOD...AND
WILL CARRY THROUGH TOMORROW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. NOT MUCH WARMING
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND CLIPPER.
HAVE TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SWEEPS BY ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FLURRIES
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST. STILL DON'T WANT TO WARM THINGS UP
MUCH THEN EITHER AS COLD SURFACE DOME REMAINS IN PLACE WITH NOTHING
MUCH TO SCOUR IT OUT.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES PRECIPITATION TIMING OVER THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE SHOWN A MARKED
TREND TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF IN REGARDS TO UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. WHILE AM NOT BUYING INTO THE ECMWF
WHOLEHEARTEDLY...IT DID DO AN EXCELLENT JOB WITH THIS PAST WEEKEND'S
SYSTEM. THINKING FINAL SOLUTION WILL LOOK LIKE A COMBINATION OF
GFS/ECMWF...HAVE LINGERED THE CHANCE FOR SNOW INTO MONDAY.
ALSO...WITH SLOWER TIMING...AM THINKING CHANCES ON SATURDAY ARE
WANING. HAVE KNOCKED POPS DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY...WITH
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS
WILL ALSO ALLOW MORE MOISTURE TO RIDE NORTH FROM THE GULF...THUS
INCREASE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL. AND IF THE ECMWF IS
RIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...CONSIDERED ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING GIVEN VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS.
HOWEVER BOTH GFS AND ETA SHOW WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CWA
ALL NIGHT THUS WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 10 MPH.

&&

.OAX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NE...NONE.
.IA...NONE.

[AirmaN]

Did I just see... "Significant Snowfall" @_@ ? ? ??