looking good for c-pa--so far

2001kx · #1 Postby **2001kx** » Fri Jan 30, 2004 2:29 pm

WINTER STORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
213 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2004

.A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW IN MANY
AREAS.

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-310513-
ADAMS PA-BEDFORD PA-BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA-
COLUMBIA PA-CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-ELK PA-FRANKLIN PA-FULTON PA-
HUNTINGDON PA-JUNIATA PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-MCKEAN PA-
MIFFLIN PA-MONTOUR PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-PERRY PA-POTTER PA-
SCHUYLKILL PA-SNYDER PA-SOMERSET PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-
SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-SULLIVAN PA-TIOGA PA-
UNION PA-WARREN PA-YORK PA-
213 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2004

...WINTER STORM OUTLOOK...

...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH SNOW DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS
MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN INTENSITY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE AREA. ONE COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH WARM AIR TO MOVE IN AND CAUSE THE SNOW TO
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS OF HEAVY SNOW...THE ENTIRE AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
AFFECTED BY THIS WINTER STORM.

JCT777 · #2 Postby **JCT777** » Fri Jan 30, 2004 4:08 pm

I hope this ends up looking good for both you and me. 8-)

Dj3 · #3 Postby **Dj3** » Fri Jan 30, 2004 4:59 pm

I saw that your under that winter storm outlook 2001kx. DO u think they will issue one for the pittsburgh region, or does it look to be rain for pittsburgh?

#4 Postby **FLguy** » Fri Jan 30, 2004 5:37 pm

i dont agree w/ CTP. i think they are Over-playing the potential for heavy rain across the lower and mid-susquehanna valley too much.

right now (IMO at least) schuylkill, columbia, sullivan, lycoming, clinton, northumberland, and tioga counties (in their CWA) are most likely to see the heaviest accumulations. which would account for much of the north central mountains, mid and upper susquehanna valley.

2001kx · #5 Postby **2001kx** » Fri Jan 30, 2004 5:48 pm

thanks for your input FLguy-always appreciated.

Dj3 · #6 Postby **Dj3** » Fri Jan 30, 2004 5:48 pm

FLguy my local mets are saying that it will be mostly rain/ice event. Do you think this is true or could pittsburgh see some significant snow? I just dont see how it could get up to 40 on monday when we have over a foot of snowcover on the ground.

#7 Postby **FLguy** » Fri Jan 30, 2004 5:53 pm

the boundary layer will be too cold given the snow cover in place and some CAD east of the mountains to change the precip to all rain SE of a line from chambersburg to reading. NW of that line IMO its all or mainly all SN with heavy accumulations. (could be talking 10"+ but well wait for the first half of the weekend to get by before beating that issue into the ground)

#8 Postby **FLguy** » Fri Jan 30, 2004 5:55 pm

Dj3 wrote:FLguy my local mets are saying that it will be mostly rain/ice event. Do you think this is true or could pittsburgh see some significant snow? I just dont see how it could get up to 40 on monday when we have over a foot of snowcover on the ground.

SN/IP/ZRA to start then rain then back to SN. too early to discuss accumulations but as the low jumps to the coast, the column will rapidly cool resulting in a fast change to snow. but by that time the best UVM should be across central and eastern PA.

Anonymous · #9 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Jan 30, 2004 5:58 pm

what about my area of NJ ENE of Philadelphia

Colin · #10 Postby **Colin** » Fri Jan 30, 2004 6:51 pm

1evans, probably a mix to rain event for you.

Guest · #11 Postby **Guest** » Fri Jan 30, 2004 6:58 pm

Sorry but im not buying into the rapid warming for anyparts of the OV especially in western PA into OH. The models had this storm for days doing what they are trending back towards and thats a low into se KY and a jump to the Coast keeping any type of mix precip down towards the OH River. Either way lets just wait and see what the newer runs say as we get closer to the event. i95 corridor either way you look at it just doesnt look good for a all snow event or a big snow event unless the transfer can happen farther south and the high not be heading out to sea.

NJWxGuy · #12 Postby **NJWxGuy** » Fri Jan 30, 2004 7:05 pm

Colin wrote:1evans, probably a mix to rain event for you.

You mean the opposite.

#13 Postby **FLguy** » Fri Jan 30, 2004 7:09 pm

tonights EC is trending in the right direction after last nights crap. has 995 low over SNE on D5

still is the furthest west with the initial low

NJWxGuy · #14 Postby **NJWxGuy** » Fri Jan 30, 2004 7:26 pm

FLguy wrote:tonights EC is trending in the right direction after last nights crap. has 995 low over SNE on D5

still is the furthest west with the initial low

Euro is La garbage...

Euro has been HIDEOUS this year and anyone that wants to dispute that ought to have their heads checked out. By far the best model has been the GFS over the past month, and also in the beginning of Dec as well. Has it been great? Not exactly, but the best. GGEM has had some success as well.

Rainband · #15 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Jan 30, 2004 7:26 pm

FLguy wrote:i dont agree w/ CTP. i think they are Over-playing the potential for heavy rain across the lower and mid-susquehanna valley too much.

right now (IMO at least) schuylkill, columbia, sullivan, lycoming, clinton, northumberland, and tioga counties (in their CWA) are most likely to see the heaviest accumulations. which would account for much of the north central mountains, mid and upper susquehanna valley.

My sister lives in Montoursville.. it's nothern Lycoming..She won't be happy

They had had storm after storm this year :eek:

Thanks for the info I will pass it on.

Rainband · #16 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Jan 30, 2004 7:28 pm

NJWxGuy wrote:
FLguy wrote:tonights EC is trending in the right direction after last nights crap. has 995 low over SNE on D5

still is the furthest west with the initial low

Euro is La garbage...

Euro has been HIDEOUS this year and anyone that wants to dispute that ought to have their heads checked out. By far the best model has been the GFS over the past month, and also in the beginning of Dec as well. Has it been great? Not exactly, but the best. GGEM has had some success as well.

Our locals have sworn by the GFS this year and for a while for that matter. It did stand for Good For S*** before. Why the change?? :wink:

Stormsfury · #17 Postby **Stormsfury** » Fri Jan 30, 2004 7:34 pm

Rainband wrote:
NJWxGuy wrote:
FLguy wrote:tonights EC is trending in the right direction after last nights crap. has 995 low over SNE on D5

still is the furthest west with the initial low

Euro is La garbage...

Euro has been HIDEOUS this year and anyone that wants to dispute that ought to have their heads checked out. By far the best model has been the GFS over the past month, and also in the beginning of Dec as well. Has it been great? Not exactly, but the best. GGEM has had some success as well.
Our locals have sworn by the GFS this year and for a while for that matter. It did stand for Good For S*** before. Why the change??

Because the ECMWF can't handle s/w energy in the southern stream and lags it too far back in the Southwest, thus inducing outputs that phase too early and run these storms in the Plains states ... but at the same time, the ECMWF does pick up on CAD events a hell of a lot better than the GFS. On the other hand, the GFS's overall pattern depiction has been a bit better, and the more progressive nature of the southern stream depictions have actually scored some brownie points ... although, it sucks with CAD.

SF

Guest · #18 Postby **Guest** » Fri Jan 30, 2004 7:34 pm

It seems to me that for the most part all of them have had thier problems ESPECIALLY in the 2 - 5 day timeframe for whatever reason. However like NJWxGuy points out the GFS so far has had the best record believe it or not the last month or so.

#19 Postby **FLguy** » Fri Jan 30, 2004 7:44 pm

NJWxGuy wrote:
FLguy wrote:tonights EC is trending in the right direction after last nights crap. has 995 low over SNE on D5

still is the furthest west with the initial low

Euro is La garbage...

Euro has been HIDEOUS this year and anyone that wants to dispute that ought to have their heads checked out. By far the best model has been the GFS over the past month, and also in the beginning of Dec as well. Has it been great? Not exactly, but the best. GGEM has had some success as well.

yeah, the GFS has done much better, (but by no means anything near what one would consider optimal) which i pointed out last night.

Anonymous · #20 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Jan 30, 2004 8:15 pm

Colin wrote:1evans, probably a mix to rain event for you.

The only thing I will say to that is, I will believe it when I see it.

looking good for c-pa--so far

looking good for c-pa--so far

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