Sun/Mon potential AND BIGGER THREAT later in the week...

Winter Weather Discussion

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Stormsfury
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Sun/Mon potential AND BIGGER THREAT later in the week...

#1 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Feb 01, 2004 2:10 am

Couldn't sleep tonight, so I wanted to try to get back into the swing of things....

http://www.stormsfury1.com

(My forecast/prognostic discussion)
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Lowpressure
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#2 Postby Lowpressure » Sun Feb 01, 2004 7:44 am

Here in D.C. they keep going back and forth on the Monday/Tuesday event. Leaning more towards freezing rain this far north? It is 13 degrees right now with snowpack.
Focus on the late week system has been minor here as well. The keep saying two possible significant events, but will not commit to either yet, taking their usual conservative approach.
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Steve H.
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#3 Postby Steve H. » Sun Feb 01, 2004 8:52 am

Good analysis SF. Yes, looks like the late week storm is the one to really watch. I saw the 6z GFS showing the warm air into interior NJ and NY, and am amazed that the model shows this. There is a strong high just to the north and the 50/50 well northeast on the map. Doesn't compute. This mornings GFS shows cold returning next week. But the question is did it really ever leave? Moderated yes, leave completely NO. BTW, sorry to hear about your dad's passing. Hope your family is doing OK!
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#4 Postby wxbrad » Sun Feb 01, 2004 10:21 am

Stormsfury,
Good disscussion, I too have been very concerned about the late week event. It' sfunny alot of the weather guys up here in CLT are clueless on the CAD. Most have had 50's for late week and some rain. Sounds like someone's getting their forecast from TWC. :-)

Anyways agree with your thinking on the placement of the low. The air over the carolinas is already cold and dry, I picture 850WAA swining back from the Atlantic and causing some serious problems. My concerns is that people are wrapped up in the Super Bowl and for good reason and NWS is not going to get a watch out soon enough for major icing.
I know someone is going to get hammered with the QPF's being generated and potential for elevated convection over the CAD.
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