Winter storm update

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good Sunday morning folks. A busy weekend continues. First let's focus on the lake effect snow, which has dumped big time on Oswego County, NY. Oswego, and Parish, NY were one of the hardest hit areas with snow amounting to over 7 feet in spots. This list below shows what I mean.

Parish, NY: 86 inches of snow
West Monroe, NY: 51 inches of snow
North Osceola, NY: 50.8 inches of snow
Minetto, NY: 66.6 inches of snow

Some amazing totals with Parish, NY receiving over 7 feet of snow with this single lake effect event. What's interesting is parts of Lake Ontario are frozen. So there's gotta be another source other than lake Ontario and there sure was ladies and gentlemen. There was a fetch off Lakes Superior, Lake Huron, and Lake Ontario, and it dumped hard on Oswego County and parts of southern Lewis County also. I 81 north of Syracuse is still a huge problem this morning in the wake of this huge event, which has finally tapered off. The Buffalo lak effect of XMAS 2001 was 82 inches in 5 days. This event recently in Parish, NY was 86 inches in 3 days. Amazing stuff.

Meanwhile focusing further west, a winter storm is developing in the central Plains this morning and will become better organized throughout the morning hours. A significant snow and ice storm is expected across the central plains and extending northeast bound into the midwestern United States. Further south, a severe weather threat for the superbowl in Houston later today. Damaging winds are the primary threat and heavy rain as well. Thus the dome may end up being shut at some point during this game, if not the entire game.

The following below are the latest model depictions of this winter storm today through Monday and note there is a varying of solutions here.

ETA 6Z
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GFS 6Z
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Breaking it down by region starting in the sunflower state where a significant snow and icestorm is anticipated. Areas say from Wichita to Salina eastward to Junction City, Manhattan, and Topeka could see 8-12 inches of snow today through early Monday morning. Wind gusts will frequently exceed 35 mph late tonight into Monday morning resulting in near whiteout conditions. Travel is discouraged during this time period as near whiteout conditions combined with heavy snow. Travel will be extremely hazardous in this area. Winter storm warnings are in effect for most of Kansas and northern Missouri with icestorm warnings up for extreme southeast Kansas and into west central Missouri. Areas within the icestorm warning including the towns of Sedelia, Clinton, and Butler in southeast Kansas and into west central Missouri will see 1/4-1/2 inch of ice accumulation with this storm. Power outages are a possibility in isolated areas within the icestorm zone. Bottom line is expect more ice southeast of I 35 while heavy wind blown snow and whiteout conditions can be expected northwest of I 35 from central KS northeastward through northern and northeastern Kansas. Kansas City will likely be on the line between heavy snow, possibly mixing with sleet and possibly some freezing rain. However the further southeast you are from KC, the more ice you see. The further northwest of KC you go, the more we will see all snow. Lawrence, KS is included in mostly snow, heavy at times where meteorologist Jim Cantore will be reporting live this morning.

So with all this accumulating snow we're talking about in the sunflower state, do we potentially see the heaviest snowfall on record for a 24 hour period in Topeka, KS? The following below are stats depicting the heaviest 24 hour snowfall ever for Topeka, KS since 1900. We could potentially place in the top 5 snowstorms of all time in Topeka for a 24 hour period. Have a look.

17.3 INCHES ON FEB. 2 1900
15.2 INCHES ON JAN. 9 1993
11.3 INCHES ON JAN. 9 1985 AND FEB. 21 1971
10.8 INCHES ON DEC. 5 1942

9.0 INCHES ON DEC. 30 1973
8.8 INCHES ON FEB. 25 1912
8.4 INCHES ON MAR. 14 1960 AND MAR. 2 1912
8.3 INCHES ON DEC. 14 1987
8.0 INCHES ON OCT. 22 1996, DEC. 31 1984 AND MAR. 30 1926

7.9 INCHES ON MAR. 21 1932
7.8 INCHES ON MAR. 9 1975
7.5 INCHES ON MAR. 7 1931
7.1 INCHES ON DEC. 27 1966
7.0 INCHES ON FEB. 1 1983 AND JAN. 5 1962

Further eastward, the situation becomes a bit more complex, especially east of the Mississippi River. The ETA for example keeps 850 temps warmer for Chicago while the GFS is colder with more QPF. While the potential for several inches of snow exist for northern Illinois, there is also a better chance of mixed precipitation for the windy city and across northern and central Illinois. Thus less snow accumulation for the windy city late Monday into Tuesday morning.

However looking at the forecast prior to Monday night is a bit less complicated simply because the heavy snow swath extends from St Joseph, MO northeastward through Des Moines and the Iowa City area. Parts of central Wisconsin will likely get a piece of this snowstorm as well after dusk Monday in a weakened state.

Breaking it down region by region. From St Joseph, MO through Des Moines, Iowa, a winter storm warning is in effect. Along this line, expect 8-12 inches of snow today through Monday. Strong winds will likely combine with this snow tonight through Monday causing blowing and drifting snow.

Further east into the Quad Cities area, a winter storm watch is in effect. Snow amounts will likely be a bit less in the Quad Cities with 5-10 inches expected. This is still a significant amounts of snow. The potential for sleet and freezing rain does exist with this storm system in areas along and especially east of the Mississippi River. As a result, snow totals are likely gonna be lower. However if it's all snow for your area, especially north and west of the Quad Cities, expect up to 1 foot of snow. Either way, strong winds will combine with this snow tonight into Monday causing blowing and drifting snow. Travel in the central plains and midwest is strongly discouraged.

The winter storm watch for St Louis that was issued is cancelled. Areas north of St Louis will likely see the heaviest of this winter storm. However as colder air moves in Monday, the chance of wintry precip or a mixture of precipitation is possible for the gateway of the west. A period of snow is even possible for St Louis Monday night. But the worse of this winter storm will stay well north and west of St Louis.

By later Tueday, the energy from this midwestern storm will likely transfer to the middle Atlantic coast. Depending on the exact location of this coastal feature will determine who gets the heaviest snow amounts and a mix of precipitation as the case maybe for the major cities. However this part of the storm needs to be monitored more carefully as the forecast is alot more complicated beyond Monday east of the Mississippi River. Stay tuned for more updates as they come in.

Jim