12z ETA and GFS says "NO SNOW FOR YOU!!" for DC, P

[ezweather]

Hi Everyone:

Had to use that line from Seinfeld. Man, I don't like the models are showing, but when you have to make an objective forecast, I'd say the prospects for heavy rain is looking better each day. Just have to see how this unfolds and whether the cold air and snow cover effect the upcoming storm.

Well, after looking at the 12z run of the ETA and GFS through 84 hours, doesn't look good at all for any snow. I know we're still more than 36 hours away, and maybe some changes will take place with the eventual track of the low, but I don't think we'll see any frozen precip down here. I don't like saying that, but maybe this brief break of the cold was for the entire week. I think the way things are going, we probably may crack the 50s on Friday with heavy rain. Does that sound crazy, I don't think so. Well, I'm awaiting the rest of the GFS run to come and see what it thinks is going to happen next week. I just can't believe that there is a good snow pack in PA and colder air coming down for tomorrow, but both these models say no. They just flood us with milder temperatures and heavy rainfall. I wonder if this reminds me of 83. I remember that time, it took forever to get big snows down near Philly and DC. But finally, mini system came down the week before the blizzard and set the table up for what was a memorable storm. Maybe this storm this Thursday - Saturday will do just that.

Alrighty, time for some lunch. More thoughts later.

[JCT777]

I have pretty much conceded that this weekend's event will be mostly rain, although there could be a little snow/ice on the front end in my area (2" of less of total snow/sleet). Time to look toward the next potential storm.

[Anonymous]

If you live near a stream get your boat ready. Between wholesale snowmelt and frozen ground and heavy heavy rains, that runoff will push many streams right over their banks.

N VA got three-quarters of an inch of rain just yesterday, and I would imagine that eastern MD, DE and SE PA and most of NJ picked up well over an inch to inch and a half of rain yesterday so the ground is pretty saturated. This is sure no drought situation folks, this is SERIOUS rainfall coming with those INSANE qpf's!!



-Jeb

[kmanWX]

[ezweather]

After reading their discussion below, they are predicting simlar track next week. Cold air moves away and another rain storm rolls in. Man, do we have to wait till the 16th, better yet, how about next year.. Okay, a lot can change, but let's see what happens with this storm...

Now onto their discussion -

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
310 PM EST WED FEB 4 2004

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRIEF BREAK IN SEEMINGLY NONSTOP PARADE OF WINTER STORMS WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT END AGAIN BY TUESDAY EVENING...AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM RACES TOWARDS PA. QUIET NIGHT ON
TAP FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PARKS ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT MOUNTAIN/VALLEY TEMP DIFFERENCES WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS MUCH COOLER DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
FOR MIN TEMPS...BUT NOT TOO MUCH SINCE HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO SPILL INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SWIRLING OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ETA/GFS CONSISTENT IN TRACKING THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...AND MOST IMPORTANTLY TO THE WEST OF PA. THIS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT IN THAT WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL RACE INTO REGION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE MIXED PRECIP INSTEAD OF SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MASSIVE LIFT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL CAUSE PRECIP TO QUICKLY BREAK OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. ETA SHOWING A MUCH
QUICKER WARMUP IN THE BLYR THAN THE GFS. HOWEVER...ETA SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY A SLEET/FZRA EVENT...WHILE GFS DEPICTS A QUICKER TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN. REALITY WILL PROBABLY LIE SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN DUE TO HEAVY SNOWPACK AND COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT WILL HELP KEEP SURFACE TEMPS BELOW FREEZING.

CONCERN LIES WITH MODEL QPF FORECASTS...WITH BOTH ETA/GFS SHOWING WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. AS A RESULT...WINTER STORM
WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT ICING ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND SNOW AND SLEET NORTH. LOWER SUSQ WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE AN ADDED FLOODING
THREAT DUE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN.

WHILE THE PRIMARY LOW TRACKS WELL NW OF PA...A SECONDARY WAVE WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. EXACT TRACK OF THIS SLOW-MOVING WAVE WILL DETERMINE IF THE LOWER SUSQ RECEIVES
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS.

VILLANI


SATURDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...AFTER OUR NEXT STORM EXITS...FAIRLY COLD AIR MAKES A BRIEF APPEARANCE BUT STARTS TO WANE ON SUNDAY. WL HOLD CHC/SCT SHSN/FLURRIES FOR THE USUAL SUSPECTS SAT AND SAT NITE...BUT ONLY MENTION FLURRIES ON SUNDAY FOR THE N/WRN MTNS.

BREAK IN THE ACTION FOR MOST OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS BIG HIGH BUBBLE FLOATS FROM GREAT PLAINS INTO SERN U.S./MID-ATLANTIC. CLIPPER LOOKS TO PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH ON SUN NITE/MON...BUT MAY MAKE SOME CLOUDS FOR NRN TIER.

TROF DIGS TO OUR WEST AND WL SET UP FAVORABLE FLOW PTRN FOR STORM TRACK OVHD AGAIN LATER IN THE FCST (TUE WED TIME FRAME). CHC POPS SHUD DO...AND WL CARRY THEM TUE AND WED.

DANGELO
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