Visit to NHC & HRD

[hurricanetrack]

I thought I would let you all know about my recent visit to the NHC and HRD.

I drove down to Miami from North Carolina on Thursday. My partner, Jesse, went with me.

On Friday morning we met with Max Mayfield and in fact, all of the NHC forecasters who were there. I believe everyone was in the building that day.

I let Max know about my research team's plans for this season- which include finally having a stationary (yet portable) wind tower system for observations. This will include all kinds of met data as well as a web cam and 6 video cameras that we can operate remotely. The idea is that we can abandon this tower (which will be built from our existing Isuzu Rodeo that we have used since 1999) and head to safe ground when a nasty hurricane makes landfall. The tower system will continue to transmit data and images to HurricaneTrack.com even after we leave it. The only time it will fail is if it is destroyed in wind or water. Even if that happens, or the cell towers go down, we will still be able to retrieve the data after the hurricane has passed.

Max was very happy to hear about this mainly because our team would NOT be in harm's way- yet we can still collect valuable data and images for NHC, HRD and the media. It's a win-win situation with almost zero risk to our team.

Next, I put on a presentation for the entire NHC staff concerning this project. Everyone seemed satisfied that it would be very beneficial for data collection on the ground. Data will be sent out every 60 seconds. This is very rare as most automated systems transmit data every 15 minutes, 30 minutes or even each hour. Our data will be considered "high frequency".

The meeting with the NHC folks was as good as it can get. I feel very good about my relationship with them and they have confidence in my team that we can gather data and imagery without getting hurt. This is a big plus for us and will ultimately aid to help better understand hurricanes.

Next, we visited the Hurricane Research Division (HRD). Stan Goldenberg was (and has been) our main contact. Again, I presented a seminar on what my team expects to accomplish this season. They were very impressed and look forward to our high frequency data. Some of the folks offered suggestions that we will implement into our field program this season. Indeed, the excitement is already building.

On Saturday, we were again at the NHC for the annual amateur radio hurricane conference. The station at the NHC, now called WX4NHC, has many volunteers throughout the Basin who gather data via HAM and other reports. I was invited to speak about my team's contributions to their efforts since 2001. We mainly use the Internet with wireless web access to send them reports. We do have a HAM operator, K4JVP, who works on our team and we can use him as back-up if needed. In fact, he used the new IRLP during Lili and Isabel- this sent our data over the Internet to the WX4NHC radio room.

The concluding speaker was none other than Stacy Stewart. His presentations are always great. He went over the life cycle of a hurricane.

One very interesting item to note from Stacy. He said that the NHC gets calls and is aware of folks on Internet message boards who "complain" that the NHC is not doing their job when a large blob of convection flares up overnight and nothing is mention all day on the TWO. He emphasized that 24 hours worth of persistence is really needed before getting to concerned about any quick flare up of convection. Of course, there are some times when it is obvious that something is forming, and thus we see that reflected in their outlooks.

Also- he stated that from what the data shows now, including what he said should be a westerly QBO, that the 2004 hurricane season has all the marks for a very active one. He said the last time conditions were setting up to be as favorable as they are now was 1995 and 1999. We have that on video tape and will post some of this on my site later this coming week.

So- get ready, it looks like we may well be in for a big season ahead.

I know this is long but it really was an incredible trip. Jesse and I met with some of the top people in the world concerning hurricanes. It was just so rewarding to be able to contribute something back to their efforts. These folks work tireless hours at the NHC and rarely ever see what happens on land. My team, and others like us, are able to ground truth their forecasts as well as tell the story of what happens in a hurricane. Very cool stuff.

One other note: if you have a home weather station and are in the path of a hurricane and DO NOT NEED to evacuate, consider logging your data either manually or via computer and sharing it with the NHC. There is an online report form at http://www.wx4nhc.org that you can use.

That's it for now. I have a lot of photos and video to edit from the trip. And to think it is only February. This is going to be an extraordinary year.

[cycloneye]

Interesting all of what you said about what Stacey said of a very active 2004 season.Ummm another busy season ahead for us?

Mark a question about hurricane chases. Those chases that you do are in the US coastline only or you also travel outside the US for example the caribbean islands to chase a hurricane that may threat the islands?

[hurricanetrack]

Luis:

Starting this year, we will come to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands if needed. With Sprint PCS coverage in those locations, we can use the wireless web to access and transmit data. This will add a whole new dimension to our work.

[cycloneye]

Luis:

Starting this year, we will come to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands if needed. With Sprint PCS coverage in those locations, we can use the wireless web to access and transmit data. This will add a whole new dimension to our work.

Ok thanks Mark and now I will see if your team comes and if so I guess we here are in deep trouble in terms of a hit . It has been 6 years since Georges when it made landfall here so will this 2004 be a bad year for PR and the islands? The patterns I guess will dictate which areas will be vulnerable.