Coast With The Most

[Anonymous]

I read many posts that from Deleware to Long Island will see the most. I want to know hom much? I have heard many reports, all different. I want to know what the real experts here say.

[Anonymous]

With this system, The Coast is where it is at. You want to see some snow, get in your car, and head east to the coast----That is where the snow will be. I expect a few flurries from this late tomorrow night with an outside chance of a coating. Then warming temps into the weekend with a much better chance of steady rains on Saturday and highs in the upper 50s.


-Jeb

[Anonymous]

How much do you think. I will avoid asking for a specific location, as it got me in trouble before, bet a general forecast for the coast, Deleware to Long Island.

[Colin]

3-6", more south, less up into the NJ coast.

[Anonymous]

1evans, I think this is a very complex system and even though it's only 24-30 hours away, the specifics are very much still up in the air. Relatively small shifts in the track could make the difference between a 2-4" and 12-24" storm for your area. As Erica mentioned in another thread, this has lots of similarities to the January 2000 system where NONE of the models were even close to showing the correct solution till the dumping was already underway. I'm not saying we're likely to see a carbon copy of that storm, but given the similar nature of the pattern and the small differences in the timing of phasing that can make a world of difference in the surface weather, I think it's too early to make a call on accumulations for any location. My advice would be to expect at least 3 inches of snow where you live, but keep watching as it could end up being far, far more than that. Joe Bastardi has you in the 3-6" accumulation zone for a professional reference point... but he is strongly hinting that amounts could exceed his call.

[Erica]

1evans, I think this is a very complex system and even though it's only 24-30 hours away, the specifics are very much still up in the air. Relatively small shifts in the track could make the difference between a 2-4" and 12-24" storm for your area. As Erica mentioned in another thread, this has lots of similarities to the January 2000 system where NONE of the models were even close to showing the correct solution till the dumping was already underway. I'm not saying we're likely to see a carbon copy of that storm, but given the similar nature of the pattern and the small differences in the timing of phasing that can make a world of difference in the surface weather, I think it's too early to make a call on accumulations for any location. My advice would be to expect at least 3 inches of snow where you live, but keep watching as it could end up being far, far more than that. Joe Bastardi has you in the 3-6" accumulation zone for a professional reference point... but he is strongly hinting that amounts could exceed his call.

The position of the block, lack of a 50/50 low, and the movement of the high would all suggest a track closer to the coast. The last time we had a similar sequence of events was January 2000.

This may be one of the situations where if you can predict the track of the high, you can do the same for the low. I'm not sure if it will be a carbon copy of it either, but there is the chance given how similar the synoptic pattern is, that it can get close to that.

[Anonymous]

still no changeover, except south eastern NJ.