moves it back west, strengthens the sucker back up. Not to 18z levels, but this is far from over. As i was thinking earlier in the day, this will remain a misleading forecast until it actually happens.
This is a nice shift back towards the models of 18z. In many ways I think this lastest run is stronger then the 18z. Raleigh has issued WS Warnings.
Ahh, back into anticipation.
6z eta says "why yall leave so soon???"
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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jbj5d
- Tropical Low
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with most of the maps now in for the eta, is almost uncanny how the gradient is so sharply stacked right at the coast. 36/42 hours out LI and NJ miss huge precip totals by a matter of miles. Any gradual smoothing of the gradient or a shift over so slightly west or north and the coast could be in a world of hurt. Interesting to see how the other models will treat this data, especially the 12z run. 12z now becomes huge for everyone on the coast between NC to Mass.
Maybe giving everyone the info they hoped the 0z would give last night. Again this storm continues to have impressive odd runs and rather disappointing even runs.
Maybe giving everyone the info they hoped the 0z would give last night. Again this storm continues to have impressive odd runs and rather disappointing even runs.
Last edited by jbj5d on Tue Feb 17, 2004 4:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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jbj5d
- Tropical Low
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nc, i think so. it seems that it is coming. Especially for you, not too much is gonna change things in the next few hours. The radars are already starting to light up with random clutter, and precip churning off of Cape Hatteras. The eta has held a tight gradient for the past day (maybe longer, have not been paying attention), so if you would assume it is a compomise between itself and the other models, you will get some good precip. The eta does not seem to give reason for RDU's Wx Warning, but common sense does. Check the dewpoints and all,I know i am (up to 5 degrees here! temp of 20). Will be interesting to see how the other models play with this data. I felt that the 0z runs were all over-reacting to something, and everything was not going away that quickly, and it looks to be right.
As more data streams in, it makes me realize... I need to get to bed so i can do this again before classes.
As more data streams in, it makes me realize... I need to get to bed so i can do this again before classes.
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Going to be close.
I really think that this is a classic set-up for us on Ern LI. But can we get the 25-50 Mile shift? Time will tell but I have a feeling this is going to be the one for this year not that we haven't had enough already but this could be the one for us on Ern LI. How many people here would not love to be in a 150' CG Cutter about 100 Miles east of Montauk tomorrow. I mean the amount of snow that is going to fall out there is enormous. I predict 2-4 For the 5 Boroughs excluding the Bronx, 3-6 For Nassau County. 4-8 for Western SUffolk, 6-8 for Central Suffolk and 8-12++ for Ern suffolk county. if this moves 25-50 Miles west Eastern Suffolk could see 18-24 Inches of snow out of this. Gonna be close. Good luck everyone.
Mike
Mike
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