LWX seems nervous this morning....

[Cheesy_Poofs]

Here is a part of there AFD...

" .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WED MORN...
VRY DIFFICULT FCST TODAY...ROUGH MORNING. WHERE TO BEGIN. BOTTOM
LINE...THIS MORN FCST IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST. WIDE VARIETY OF FCST
MDLS THIS MORN ALL POINTING TWD A SIG QPF EVENT JUST OFFSHORE.
OBSEVATIONAL DATASETS SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
OTHERWISE.

AFTER CAREFUL INSPECTION OF THE 00Z UA DATA MDLS DID HV SOME
INITIALIZATION PROBS. STG SPEED MAX DIVING S THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
WAS NOT ACCURATELY CAPTURED BASED ON ACARS AND UA REPORTS. THE
POTENT VORT MAX OVR THE ARKLATEX EARLY THIS MORN WAS A BIT FASTER
THAN FCST AND NONE OF THE MDLS WERE FORECASTING THE EXTENT OF THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...OR IN THE BIG SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME OVR FL AND THE ERN GULFMEX.

BY 06Z...THE MDLS CONTD TO HV DIFFICULTY TIMING THE VORTMAX OVR THE
ARKLATEX AND THE THE NWD PUSH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. ALL OF THESE
INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE UPR TROF WL BECM MORE NEG TILTED MORE
QUICKLY. THE RESULTANT CHG TO THE SENSIBLE WX WOULD BE TO BRING THE
SECONDARY SFC LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE 00Z MDL
SOLNS WOULD SUGGEST THIS LOOKING AT THE GFS/ETA/CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES. HEREIN LIES THE LOW CONFIDENCE. DESPITE THE
SUGGESTIONS OF THE OBSERVATIONAL DATA...THIS FCSTR HAS A HARD TIME
IGNORING THE ENTIRE (INTERNATIONAL) MDL SUITE. HOWEVER...THAT BEING
THE CASE...ITS HARD TO IGNORE THE OBSERVATIONAL DATA. BEST FCST AT
THIS POINT SEEMS TO BE COMING JUST INSIDE THE AVAILABLE MDL SFC LOW
TRACKS WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SOME MEASUREABLE QPF OVR FAR SE ZNS.

SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET AT THIS
POINT. STG DYNAMIC SYS WITH EXCELLENT JET DYNAMICS DEVELOPING AS THE
UPR TROF APCHS THE E CST. LOOKING A BIT DEEPER THE SYS WL HV SOME
EXCELLENT THINGS GOING FOR IT. VERT CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST THAT
THERE WL BE CI/SI IN THE DEFORMATION BAND BASED ON NEG EPV VALS.
GOOD FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DEVELOPS...AND THE QN DIV AXIS SETS UP
JUST E OF THE AREA. INTERESTING THETA CROSS SECTIONS FM THE 00Z
CYCLE ALSO TRYING TO SUGGEST STRATOSPHERIC INTRUSION SHOULD HELP THE
SFC LOW TO REALLY BOTTOM OUT AFT DEVELOPING.

THE TIMING OF THIS UPR TROF WL BE ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL. THE FASTER
THE TROF BECMS MORE NEG TILTED...THE CLOSER THE SFC LOW TRACK WL BE.
THE FORMATION OF THE UPR DEFORMATION AXIS COULD ALSO BECOME
PROBLEMATIC AND ALSO HV TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. ALL INTERESTS
SHOULD MONITOR THE FCST THIS MORN AND THIS AFTN CAREFULLY UNTIL A
BIT MORE CONSISTENCY DEVELOPS IN THE MDL SOLNS.

06Z RUNS CAME IN A BIT TIGHTER WITH THE SFC LOW...BUT STILL FAR ENUF
E FOR THE BULK OF THE QPF TO REMAIN E OF THE AREA. AFTER COORD WITH
NEIGHBORS...HV DECIDED TO DROP THE WATCH IN SRN MD AND REPLACE IT
WITH A WINTER WX ADV. IF THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS FURTHER W...THE
HEADLINES MAY HV TO MOVE AS WELL.

WL CONT TO MONITOR SAT TRENDS AS WELL AS SFC DATASETS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORN AND MAKE ANY CHGS AS NECESSARY.

THANKS TONY/PHI AND DAN/AKQ FOR EXCELLENT COORD THIS MORN...WE/RE ON
THE SAME PAGE.

MANNING"

[Anonymous]

Just woke up and was surprised to see what is being said in the AFD... I guess this gives us a little last-minute hope. I just looked at WWBB (where I still can't post) and HM seemed to think this is still up in the air even with the 06z runs. Oh well... off to school... hopefully I'll be surprised when I get home.

[Cheesy_Poofs]

Same here..gotta go to school...hopeing to be suprised when I get home to! I was also suprised at what they wrote in there AFD this morning to. Yesterday they seemed confident it was a miss for us...and now they said it's a low confidence forecast!

[WXBUFFJIM]

Like I said last night, that 25-50 mile switch in the track of this storm could make all the difference in the world. The biggest key is will this trough become negatively tilted sooner. This negative tilt sooner will result in the low moving closer to the coast and also the intensity could be stronger. That scenario would have serious implications on the I 95 corridor. We gotta watch this carefully. So far areas from DC, Baltimore, and Philly south and east look to be seeing the significant accumulation of snow while northwest of there could see nothing at all. But the exact track of this storm is the key and confidence is low at this time.

Jim