Busy wx pattern ahead

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good Saturday afternoon everyone. We got a busy WX pattern in the next 5-7 days and folks in most of the country may want to pay attention to this.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: An area of low pressure is developing off the coast of Cape Cod and heading towards the northeast. As the moisture from this low interacts with colder air in northern New England, snow is forecast to be significant, especially in downeast Maine today through Sunday. The original low pressure area, which produced duststorms and hurricane force wind gusts over west Texas a few days ago is now over Quebec. The original surface low pressure has transferred it's energy to the new surface low off the New England coast as seen on this satellite imaginary http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/NWATL/WV/20.jpg

As a result of this, there are winter storm warnings in effect for Downeast Maine. Communities under the winter storm warning include Bar Harbor, Bangor, Houlton and Eastport, Maine. These areas between now and Sunday night could see 10-15 inches of snowfall with locally higher amounts possible in the higher mountain peaks. This storm is progged to head into Nova Scotia again tomorrow where they continue to dig out from a 40 inch snowstorm in Halifax, Nova Scotia. It's a race against time to dig out in Nova Scotia before additional snow just causes more reckoning up there on Sunday and Sunday night.

Meanwhile in the southwestern United States, additional weather problems are expected to develop. Everything from heavy rain, wind, and heavy mountain snow is expected to occur. Despite the fact we need this precipitation, we don't need this all at once, especially in the burned areas where there are enhanced threats of dangerous mudslides and rockslides. In addition, higher mountain peaks above 6000 feet will see 12-24 inches of snow this weekend.

First look at this satellite picture http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/NEPAC/WV/20.jpg reveals the very active pattern that we're dealing with in the southwest US now and what's coming down the pipeline for the next few days. That pipeline in the north central Pacific headed right for California is the actual storm track. Thus expect one storm right after another to invade the southwest US over the next several days and most likely for the next week or two. Big concerns will be flooding and mudslides. Numerous flood watches are already out across southern California including in the Los Angeles Basin. More flood watches can be expected, even further up the coast in the days ahead.

Today's precip is being caused by a broad upper storm, which has plagued southern California for the past several days. A shortwave is moving through the LA basin right now as we speak. This will mean rain showers in the lower elevations and the burned areas with snow above 6000 feet. This precipitation will only continue to increase through tonight and early Sunday across southern California as a secondary storm tracks south and east along the California coast. Some of the rain will be heavy at times in the Los Angeles basin with some hourly rates approaching 1/2 inch or more per hour, especially in orographically favored zones where air is forced to rise up mountainous terrain. This means areas south of Point Conception could be the most likely area to see over 1/2 inch per hour and likewise near the burned areas. As you probably know, it will only take over 1/2 inch of QPF or less to cause mudslides, rock slides, and debris mud flow across the burned areas of southern California. Deadly mudslides are expected to take place over the next week in southern California. Rainfall totals will range from 1-2 inches in Los Angeles, and possibly 2-4 inches in the burned areas just through Sunday. More is expected next week, which we'll talk about in a second.

Meanwhile elevations above 6000 feet in the mountains of LA and Ventura Counties are under a winter storm warning. This winter storm warning is in effect for today through Sunday. Snow is expected to become heavy at times later today through Sunday in the LA and Ventura County mountains above 6000 feet. These areas could see 12-24 inches of snow. In addition, sustained winds of 25-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph will cause zero visibility and blizzard conditions. Travel above 6000 feet is not advisable in southern California. Same can be said for the sierra where snow will measure in feet over the next 2 days.

LOOKING AHEAD: After this storm, the danger is not over because the pipeline will remain in full effect. The storm track is still progged to race across the Pacific and slam into California. This means the next system coming through Tuesday night through Thursday could be even worse than the one we're having to face this weekend. Higher rain totals with heavy mountain snows are likely in addition to strong gale force winds and high surf along the entire California coast. This is proof that we don't need an el nino to crank up storms of this level in California. There is alot more than just el nino that causes these storm systems and right now we have no el nino or la nina. It's considered neutral. While we need this precipitation in south central California and across most of the southwestern United States, we don't need all at once, which is what I'm concerned about folks.

SEVERE WX AND WINTER STORM POTENTIAL: Another story we're going to have to follow is severe weather potential across the western Gulf coast Sunday and especially Monday along with heavy rains across the southeastern US as a surface low pressure area fires up flooding rains and heavy thunderstorms. 2-4 inches of rain is possible from southeast Texas through parts of Louisiana and Mississippi through early next week. Then the dangers are not over further east as colder air noses down courtesy of high pressure over south central Canada. This cold air maybe cold enough combined with this southern stream moisture to produce significant snows and ice across the mid atlantic states Wednesday night into Thursday. Amounts are still up in the air. However the storm we're expecting in California today and Sunday will across the southern United States Sunday night through Tuesday. Then this storm could make a run up along the eastern seaboard Wednesday night and Thursday. The megalopolis should keep a close eye on this. This means you from DC to Boston!!!

More updates will be given frequently as this situation develops. The bottom line, expect a busy weather pattern over the next several days across the United States.

Jim

[weatherlover427]

EXCELLENT summary Jim! I can attest to the rain here, it's started about a half hour ago here in northwest Orange County (CA) ... so far just light but it's wet the ground pretty much already. I'm concerned a bit because our drainage systems suck and if it pours and pours for extended periods of time we could be in for it. :o