Tropical Update: 22 Feb

[senorpepr]

A) Invest (95P): At 22/0600Z...
Position near 15.5S 172.9E (300nm WNW Suva, Fiji)
Maximum sustained winds are 25-30 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1004 mb
T-numbers: T2.0/T2.0

Satellite imgaery shows a better developed 95P when compared to yesterday. The upper-level environment is ripe for development with weak shear. The JTWC is maintaining a Formation Alert on this system while giving 95P a "good" chance at development. With the T-numbers going up along with a more descent satellite presentation, my two cents is extend this system to form into a depression within the next 24 hours. We shall see...

https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh9504web.txt
https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abpwweb.txt

Please utilize the above link for the latest advisory. For latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery, go to the NRL Monterey's website at: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Also, monitor the Fiji Meteorological Service for latest information...
http://www.met.gov.fj/sat-map.html

[senorpepr]

[senorpepr]

[senorpepr]

...if I'm not mistaken, if 95P develops, it will be named "Ivy" according to the Fiji naming convention. Of course, if it waits until it crosses 160E, then it will be named "Grace".

We'll see...

[Hurricanehink]

It doesn't look as well organized as it did yesterday, but nonetheless, I think it will develop.

[senorpepr]

UPDATE!!!

TD Noname (13P): At 22/1830Z...
Position near 15.4S 172.6E (300nm WNW Suva, Fiji)
Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1000 mb
T-numbers: T2.0/T2.0

[senorpepr]

[Hurricanehink]

Wow, I was wrong. So which way is it going?

[senorpepr]

UPDATE!

A) CYC Noname (13P): At 22/2100Z...
Position near 15.9S 173.4E (320nm ENE of Port Vila, Vanuatu)
Movement toward the W at 7 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 40 mph
Minimum central pressure is 997 mb
T# numbers: 2.0/2.0

JTWC has now upgraded the invest into Cyclone 13P. Upon strengthening, it will be named Ivy. Expect 13P to continue moving westward up until the 24 hour point when a weakening ridge will allow the system to move more southwesterly. Expect modest strengthening throughout the forecast period. By the 36 hour point, 13P will reach 75 mph and by the 48 hour point, she’ll make it to 85 mph. This will be something to watch as she has plenty of warm water to play in (86-88°F) with a handful of islands in the way. Vanuatu and New Caledonia will certainly watch this system as it progresses.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 304web.txt

Please utilize the above link for the latest advisory. For latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery, go to the NRL Monterey's website at: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[ColdFront77]

Wow, water temperatures in the upper 80's.

[senorpepr]

One last update for the night...

A) CYC Noname (13P): At 23/0325Z...
Position near 14.4S 171.4E
Maximum sustained winds are 45 mph
Minimum central pressure is 994 mb
T# numbers: 3.0/3.0

With the newest satellite estimates out, I expect 13P to continue to impress throughout tomorrow. It would not be shocked to wake up tomorrow to see "Ivy." JTWC will issued the next advisory at 4am EST. (09Z)

[senorpepr]

...for the latest advisories from the Fiji Meteorological Office...

http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html