Southeast Snowstorm

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
wxbrad
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 74
Joined: Sat Jan 31, 2004 10:43 pm
Location: Charlotte, NC
Contact:

Southeast Snowstorm

#1 Postby wxbrad » Wed Feb 25, 2004 10:48 am

The monster Southeast snowstorm is back again today after another model run. The ETA and GFS are starting to get closer and closer, but the ETA has been doing an amazing flip-flop the last couple if days. It’s either going to be a super snow storm or nothing at all.

I lean on the ETA and MM5 when we have major wedge events here in North Carolina, because they tend to do extremely well with soundings and surface temps. Not always consistent on QPF, but usually as we get closer to the event they do well with timing at the very least.

That all being said looked at the 12Z ETA this morning using the Bufkit model soundings. Very ugly picture for Charlotte and surrounding areas. Get this based on the soundings.

Snow starts at 2am Thursday and continues with some sleet/rain mixing in until Friday at 6pm. Looking at 3 techniques fro snow fall accumulation. That being max temp/thickness, NWS obs handbook, and Model algorithms output you get the following totals for CLT. Max temp- 19.5”, Thickness 9.01”, Model output 8.88”. With a grand total of QPF at 1.925” liquid!!!!!

Okay anyway you slice it thats a boat load of snow. The model dose show P-types mixing with sleet and some freezing rain. But the sounding doesn’t have a warm enough nose to really get any major freezing rain.

One thing seems for sure the track of the low is crucial to where the deformation zones sets up and who gets clobbered.

Gotta love forecasting this time of year in the Carolinas.
:lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
hurricanedude
Military Member
Military Member
Posts: 1856
Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 9:54 am
Location: Virginia Beach, Virginia
Contact:

#2 Postby hurricanedude » Wed Feb 25, 2004 10:56 am

models also bringing snow up into south central and southeast VA....even mentioned by our NWS office in WAKEFIELD
0 likes   

raysum
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 9
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 7:18 am

#3 Postby raysum » Wed Feb 25, 2004 10:57 am

Agree with you about the model flip flops, but for the last 12 to 18 hours both the GFS and ETA are pretty similar. Anyway, thanks for your input and here in Upstate SC it looks like a fun couple of days!
0 likes   

wxbrad
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 74
Joined: Sat Jan 31, 2004 10:43 pm
Location: Charlotte, NC
Contact:

#4 Postby wxbrad » Wed Feb 25, 2004 11:35 am

Well GSP is starting to spread the watches and pump up the snowfall potential. The problem may be we go from nothing to a Winter Storm warning.

I agree thought the models are coming together with one solution... a heck of a lot of snow.

Work will be fun the next 36 hours.
0 likes   

User avatar
hurricanedude
Military Member
Military Member
Posts: 1856
Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 9:54 am
Location: Virginia Beach, Virginia
Contact:

#5 Postby hurricanedude » Wed Feb 25, 2004 11:49 am

Brad, whats your take on Tidewater (SE VA) AREA?
0 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests