CHECK THIS OUT!!!

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vbhoutex
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CHECK THIS OUT!!!

#1 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Mar 17, 2003 1:54 am

I may be underestimating the hugeness of the plains storm!!! This is NWS from Denver!!

Check out this discussion from NWS Denver....
The east coast has had theirs, now it's our turn, perhaps.
------------------------------------------------

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
325 PM MST SUN MAR 16 2003

LONG TERM DISCUSSION...CONFIDENCE INCREASING ON A BIG SNOW STORM...
PERHAPS REALLY BIG. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE BUT
WITH IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
ETA HAVE DONE A BETTER JOB OF FOCUSING ON THE STRONG SHORTWAVE ON
THE NOSE OF THE JET COMING ACROSS THE SW ON MON...WHICH SWINGS
AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW AND BRINGS INCREASED LIFT ROTATING
BACK INTO COLORADO FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. THIS PRODUCES TWO
PERIODS OF MODEST LIFT IN A VERY FAVORABLE DEEP MOIST ADIABATIC
ENVIRONMENT. THE FIRST IS MON NIGHT...THEN AGAIN LATE TUE THROUGH
LATE WED OR EARLY THU. THIS SEEMS SOUND...THOUGH IT IS HARD TO
ASSESS WHETHER THE FORCEFULNESS OF THIS IS CORRECT. GFS BLURS THIS
FEATURE OUT AND INSTEAD STRENGTHENS THE ORIGINAL CIRCULATION OVER
THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. THIS GIVES ONE GOOD PERIOD OF SNOW CENTERED
ON TUE.

I LIKE THE DETAILS OF THE ETA AND WILL GO WITH THEM...WITH TWO
CAVEATS. THE FIRST IS THE TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS. THERE IS
WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...BUT
THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN WITH SOME COOLING
DOWN LOW EVENTUALLY. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS MAINTAIN A BROAD GRADIENT
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE EVENT. THERE SHOULD BE COOLING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH EVENTUALLY...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SNOW IN MOST PLACES BY TUE
NIGHT. THE FAR NE CORNER MAY HOLD OUT INTO WED. SECOND ISSUE IS
WHETHER TO BELIEVE THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE ETA. THE AVN GIVES STORM
TOTALS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES FROM CHEYENNE TO DENVER AND OUT TO LIMON.
THE ETA HAS STRONGER DYNAMICS FOR LONGER AND HAS NOT YET MOVED THE
SYSTEM OUT WHEN IT ENDS WED AFTERNOON. IT SHOWS 35 TO 45 INCHES IN
DENVER WITH 8 TO 20 INCHES ON THE MIDDLE PLAINS AND JUST AN INCH IN
THE NE CORNER.
FOOTHILLS WILL GO NUTS ON WED IF THE ETA IS RIGHT. SNOW MODEL RUN
BASED ON THE ETA SUGGEST STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 FEET FROM OROGRAPHIC
COMPONENT...THEN YOU HAVE TO ADD THE SYNOPTIC SCALE STUF ENOUGH SAID.



Incredible snow amounts for this time of year if this verifies!!!
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Rob-TheStormChaser

#2 Postby Rob-TheStormChaser » Mon Mar 17, 2003 7:33 am

For sure this has to be watched. Dont you just looooooove March and storms coming from Cali? This system has a history of putting up major warnings all across the Rockies and its on the way. Stay tuned!
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#3 Postby HuffWx » Mon Mar 17, 2003 8:23 am

That is very impressive. There are often bigger snows late march into April in the Rockies, but 3-6 feet is WAY excessive.

I wonder if the trust the Eta thermal fiels past 48 hours??LOL...

Huff
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#4 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Mar 17, 2003 10:26 pm

TWC has Siedel stationed in Denver and the snows have already hit 12-14" in the foothills. This Cali storm is gonna knock the you know what out of some areas I fear. We need to watch it closely. It will really crank tomorrow with it beginning it's feed on the GOM!!!
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