Landfall imminent......

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

[Aslkahuna]

shows that landfall has occurred. The was a very strong convective burst in the main band in the left semicircle before landfall and this seems to have also moved onshore. The strongest winds over land will be there and in the southern eyewall. The behaviour of the storm is very consistent with it being a tropical system instead of extratropical as the Brazilian Met Service has been saying. As to whether or not actual hurricane force winds get reported or not is doubtful as there's probably no wind sensors in the landfall area. Also, be aware of the fact that Brazil like most others reports 10 minute average winds for sustained winds. Sinece these, on average, run about 20% lower than the US one minute winds, any reported winds of 100 km/hr or higher will be hurricane intensity in the one minute wind.

Steve

[hurricanetrack]

Great reminder of the wind speed stuff there. We'll see....

[Hyperstorm]

Wow! I just thought of something I didn't think about before. Since these people in Brazil don't know what a hurricane is like, they will probably head outside when "it's all over", in other words when the eye is right over them. We know that same thing happened years ago when people were not well informed about them. Most of the losses of life ocurred during that transition. Once the eye goes through and the right eyewall enters the picture, people will be caught outside during the midst of it! I really hope that Brazilian mets REALLY know that this is just a temporary pause in the winds and rain. I REALLY hope so...