Uh oh....SOI went way south....some warming in EP

[hurricanetrack]

Now I know that this might be only temporary, but the SOI has really gone into the toilet. We're talking -34 now! The SOI was positive for a while there, but has nose-dived.

Also- there appears to be more warmer water pooling in the East Pacific now than recently has been observed. Now, as with anything on a global scale, or regional scale, we'll need to see if it persists.

But it would be bad timing if on Friday Dr. Gray says "no El Nino to speak of" and "bad hurricane season ahead" and then, oops, big time El Nino pops up and ruins everyone's summer.

If that SOI stays negative for too long, even I'll begin to worry.

[cycloneye]

You will be at the conference on the 9th so I am sure he may say something about it there.

[Stormsfury]

Expect the blocking pattern to abate in the next week or so ...