Expert: U.S. can expect 'hellacious' damage from major

[chadtm80]

Expert: U.S. can expect 'hellacious' damage from major hurricanes
By Ken Kaye
Staff Writer
Posted April 10 2004

The U.S. coastline can expect "hellacious" damage from major hurricanes in the near future, said noted hurricane prognosticator Bill Gray on Friday, renewing his warning that the Atlantic basin has entered an era of intense hurricane activity.

He said Florida, in particular, might be due considering it has seen only one major hurricane in the past 38 years -- Andrew in 1992. Meanwhile, 32 major hurricanes have formed since 1995.

To raise awareness, as of June 1, Gray plans to provide a detailed breakdown of the probability that 96 coastal counties, from Texas to Maine, will be hit by a tropical storm, a hurricane or a major hurricane with winds greater than 110 mph.

Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties are among those counties.

The information will be provided on a Web site, http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane.

"I don't think the average Floridian knows how lucky he's been, and how much trouble is coming," Gray said at the National Hurricane Conference in Orlando on Friday. "This just ain't going to go on. We're going to see more landfalling storms."

Chris Landsea, a research meteorologist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said because there are more people living on the coast and they have more "stuff" such as televisions, stereos and video equipment, a major hurricane would cause enormous damage in a populated area.

"Based on the evidence I've seen, I think that's not just likely; I think it's going to happen," he said. "It's going to mean destruction like we've never seen before."

For years, Gray has provided the odds of a hurricane landfall in major regions. For instance, this year he predicts a 71 percent chance of a hurricane hitting the U.S. coast and an 80 percent chance one will hit Florida and the East Coast.

The reason for the new intensity: A long-range warm cycle of the Atlantic surface, lower barometric pressure, less stability in the atmosphere and less wind shear.

Gray has come under criticism by some members of the meteorological community for providing too many specific numbers in his seasonal forecasts. For instance, for the upcoming season that starts June 1, he predicts 14 named storms, eight hurricanes and three intense hurricanes, or what would be an active season. The federal government provides a general range of the number of storms it expects and will release its seasonal forecast in May.

Gray said his calculations are justified based on historical information and major climatic indicators, such as surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the degree of wind shear.

Ken Kaye can be reached at kkaye@sun-sentinel.com or 954-385-7911.

[dixiebreeze]

A very good read, Chad, thank you

[wxman57]

Dr. Gray did make an error there. He meant to say that the Florida PENINSULA has seen only 1 major hurricane in 38 years. Opal hit the panhandle in 1995, Eloise hit the panhandle in 1975.

[chadtm80]

ah ha.. Didnt even think of that wxman.. Good pick up. I found it a good read to dixie. Being on the east coast of Florida I take notice to reports like this

[Hurrilurker]

For instance, this year he predicts a 71 percent chance of a hurricane hitting the U.S. coast and an 80 percent chance one will hit Florida and the East Coast.

Uhhhh...I'm no statistician but that doesn't make any sense. If there's an 80% chance of hitting a subsection of the U.S. coast, how can there possibly be less than that chance of it hitting somewhere along the entire coast (including the subsection)? Would someone care to explain that?

[wxman57]

For instance, this year he predicts a 71 percent chance of a hurricane hitting the U.S. coast and an 80 percent chance one will hit Florida and the East Coast.

Uhhhh...I'm no statistician but that doesn't make any sense. If there's an 80% chance of hitting a subsection of the U.S. coast, how can there possibly be less than that chance of it hitting somewhere along the entire coast (including the subsection)? Would someone care to explain that?

What he predicted was an 81% chance that the U.S. coast (anywhere) would be hit by a Cat 1-2 hurricane and a 71% chance of a major hurricane landfall.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... april2004/

[Guest]

Not a bad thing for Dr.Gray & other meteorologists like Landsea to say.They are just trying to continue to hammer home the fact that though there has not been a major hurricane impact on the east coast & GOM coast in many years,it is going to happen eventually with disastrous consequences.With the developments of new communities & sharp increases in population in hurricane prone areas,when another Andrew,Hugo or worse occurs,the devastation will be like nothing we've ever seen.

I can tell you living here in South Fla,since Andrew struck here 12 years ago,new housing & apartment developments are going up everywhere, everyday & this place is getting over populated.The traffic situation gets worse seemingly every month,there is always construction to widen the highways & roads down here & yet it seems to help the traffic situation very little..That tells me this place is packed & getting more packed everyday, especially from central Miami-Dade County north through Broward & Palm Beach.Even the areas in South Miami-Dade affected most severely by Andrew have made a nice comeback in the last decade after a slow start initially.

If a major hurricane like Andrew or god forbid worse than Andrew hits those areas down here, there will be an astonishing number of people affected.I hope that lessons were learned from Andrew & the building codes on these new homes & apts. have been enforced & construction up to par or alot of people are going to be homeless &/or killed.Hurricane Andrew will seem like a spring shower if a major hurricane impacts these super populated areas.

[wxman57]

What he did say is that the Florida peninsula (southern part, primarly) can possibly expect a major hurricane landfall every 3 years for the next several decades. So imagine that.....

[Stormsfury]

Excellent point taken, MIA_canetrakker ... Also remember, the actual size of Andrew was a small, compact, buzzsaw hurricane which the highest winds only encompassed 40 miles ... Hurricane Floyd, was twice that size easily, and a larger diameter size hurricane which that kind of punch ... let's use Isabel for an example since that's the storm freshest on our minds were to hit the Florida Peninsula ... the damage, and possibly the loss of life would be immense ...

Roads are simply not adequate enough to evacuate the enormous population in Florida. I believe some estimates said that it would take more than a full day to evacuate people off the Florida Keys ... and we all know what kind of bottleneck that Floyd caused in regards to the evacuation process. Scary and sobering.

Not a bad thing for Dr.Gray & other meteorologists like Landsea to say.They are just trying to continue to hammer home the fact that though there has not been a major hurricane impact on the east coast & GOM coast in many years,it is going to happen eventually with disastrous consequences.With the developments of new communities & sharp increases in population in hurricane prone areas,when another Andrew,Hugo or worse occurs,the devastation will be like nothing we've ever seen.

I can tell you living here in South Fla,since Andrew struck here 12 years ago,new housing & apartment developments are going up everywhere, everyday & this place is getting over populated.The traffic situation gets worse seemingly every month,there is always construction to widen the highways & roads down here & yet it seems to help the traffic situation very little..That tells me this place is packed & getting more packed everyday, especially from central Miami-Dade County north through Broward & Palm Beach.Even the areas in South Miami-Dade affected most severely by Andrew have made a nice comeback in the last decade after a slow start initially.

If a major hurricane like Andrew or god forbid worse than Andrew hits those areas down here, there will be an astonishing number of people affected.I hope that lessons were learned from Andrew & the building codes on these new homes & apts. have been enforced & construction up to par or alot of people are going to be homeless &/or killed.Hurricane Andrew will seem like a spring shower if a major hurricane impacts these super populated areas.