AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
310 AM EDT MON MAY 17 2004
.DISCUSSION...
TUE-SUN...AFTER THE WRN ATLC DLM RIDGE FLATTENS...ANOTHER STRONG
MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM TX/MX NE-WARD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BERMUDA
SFC RIDGE WILL VERY SLOWLY FILL AS IT'S AXIS DROPS SWD AND EXPANDS
EWD ACROSS NORTH FL/GA AND ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL WEAKEN
THE ONSHORE FLOW...WITH AIR MASS REMAINING RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
WEAK H50 TROUGH/LOW CURRENTLY OVER TX DROPS INTO THE WRN GOMEX AND
GETS TRAPPED BENEATH THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE. MAJORITY OF MED RANGE
GUIDANCE (GFS/GGEM/ECM/NGP) WANT TO MAINTAIN AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN
THIS FEATURE...DRIFTING IT SLOWLY EAST TWD THE FL STRAITS/CUBA AND
AIDING IN THE SPINUP OF WHAT WOULD BE A HYBRID OR AT THE VERY LEAST
A BAROCLINICALLY ENHANCED TROPICAL LOW OVER THE WRN/CTRL CARIBBEAN.
PLAYING DEVIL'S ADVOCATE FOR A MINUTE...DEVELOPMENT/ADVERTISED TRACK
OF THIS FEATURE WOULD TIGHTEN PGRAD UP QUITE A BIT ALONG THE FL SE
COAST TWD DAY 7. THAT HAVING BEEN SAID...AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS TAKING
PLACE AS THE H50 GOMEX LOW THAT WAS ADVERTISED A WEEK OR TWO AGO BY
THE GFS/ECM NEVER MATERIALIZED...AND IT APPEARS THAN SFC DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE DEPENDENT UPON BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT - I.E. STRENGTH OF
THE H50 LOW/H25 JETSTRK. WILL GO WITH THE UKMET SOLN...WHICH IS MUCH
WEAKER AT H50...AND SHOWS NOTHING AT THE SFC.
Thoughts and comments welcomed.
Robert
