Special NHC Tropical Disturbance Statement

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wxman57
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Special NHC Tropical Disturbance Statement

#1 Postby wxman57 » Wed May 19, 2004 7:48 am

Hot off the press:

WONT41 KNHC 191247
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 AM EDT WED MAY 19 2004

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER NICARAGUA AND COSTA
RICA AND IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM SPREADS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED WHILE THE LOW IS OVER LAND. ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS WILL
BE ISSUED IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

JARVINEN/AVILA
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#2 Postby wx247 » Wed May 19, 2004 7:50 am

Thanks wxman 57!!!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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#3 Postby Josephine96 » Wed May 19, 2004 7:51 am

Let the season... BEGIN! It's our 1st STDS of the year..
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#4 Postby Brent » Wed May 19, 2004 7:59 am

WOOHOO!!!! 8-) :D :)
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#5 Postby Josephine96 » Wed May 19, 2004 8:01 am

LOL.. any day now we'll here our 1st.. "That has got to be a TD" lol
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#6 Postby wxman57 » Wed May 19, 2004 8:19 am

Don't get TOO excited. I'd say the development chances have increased very slightly with the increased convection and weak mid-level center near 12N/83W, but I think the chances for significant tropical development are no more than 10-20% at this time.
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#7 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Wed May 19, 2004 8:22 am

Well we will have to wait and see what happens! At least it is something to follow!
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#8 Postby Brett Adair » Wed May 19, 2004 8:25 am

IR satellite imagery shows convection in the area being a bit disorganized this morning with it being in a bit of a sheared environment. Watch her blow up again this afternoon...
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#9 Postby Rainband » Wed May 19, 2004 8:27 am

Thanks Chris :)
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#10 Postby Brent » Wed May 19, 2004 8:28 am

Brett Adair wrote:IR satellite imagery shows convection in the area being a bit disorganized this morning with it being in a bit of a sheared environment. Watch her blow up again this afternoon...


The center is also over land which doesn't help...
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#11 Postby Brett Adair » Wed May 19, 2004 8:31 am

Brent wrote:
Brett Adair wrote:IR satellite imagery shows convection in the area being a bit disorganized this morning with it being in a bit of a sheared environment. Watch her blow up again this afternoon...


The center is also over land which doesn't help...


Definately. Maybe she can get back over the open water later on as she continues to treck N/NNE VERY slowly.
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#12 Postby dixiebreeze » Wed May 19, 2004 9:07 am

Thanks 57, you are on the ball this a.m. The TWD doesn't say a whole lot about it yet, but expect it will later today.
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#13 Postby MGC » Wed May 19, 2004 10:43 am

Issuing a STDS for a broad area of low pressure over land that is days away from any potential development has me miffed. I thought that a disturbance statement was warranted for systems over water that were on the verge of becoming a tropical cyclone......MGC
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#14 Postby Stormsfury » Wed May 19, 2004 11:16 am

MGC wrote:Issuing a STDS for a broad area of low pressure over land that is days away from any potential development has me miffed. I thought that a disturbance statement was warranted for systems over water that were on the verge of becoming a tropical cyclone......MGC


Avila is trying to lose the Dr. Tropical Death moniker, isn't he? :lol:

On a side note: since the system is capable of producing life threatening flash flooding, I really don't think that it was that bad of an idea ... potentially serious situation, nonetheless ...

SF
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#15 Postby Steve » Wed May 19, 2004 11:57 am

>>It's our 1st STDS of the year..

Heh. the only one I ever got turned out to be poison ivy :)

Anyway, I don't have a problem with it either. Criticizing them in this particular case seems a bit nit-picky to me MGC, but you are certainly entitled to your opinion (fwiw, I don't completely disagree with you).

Steve
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#16 Postby Steve » Wed May 19, 2004 11:59 am

Here's the definition of a STDS from the NHC official site:

Special Tropical Disturbance Statements are used to furnish information on strong formative, nondepression systems. These are usually issued for systems strong enough to produce heavy rains and strong winds that do not yet meet the criteria of tropical or subtropical cyclones. These products are transmitted only as needed.

Steve
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#17 Postby Andrew92 » Wed May 19, 2004 12:27 pm

Josephine96 wrote:LOL.. any day now we'll here our 1st.. "That has got to be a TD" lol


Just for you.....That has got to be a TD!

OK, not for real, but definitely something to watch while we wait for the hurricane season to start!

-Andrew92
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#18 Postby dixiebreeze » Wed May 19, 2004 5:04 pm

It sure is looking more and more like an STDS late this afternoon. Mighty juicy in the S. Carib.
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