My thinking the tropical depression one-e

[Matthew5]

Tropical depression 1E
5-21-2004
11pm pst

Location...(Nhc)14.7 north/108 west(Satellite service "Sab") 14.3 north/106.1 west. My thinking on where it is...15 north/109.0 to 109.5 west.
Winds...30 mph gust to 40 mph
Pressure...1008 millibars
Movement...Northwest at 9 knots
Closes land...400 miles from Manzanillo Mexico.


...The first tropical depression of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season forms...


Discussion... The tropical distrabance we been watching for the last 2 days has formed into tropcial depression one-e. This area was being tracked kind of a large area of convection with many smaller lows or distrabances that formed over the last few days. The computer models forecasted this around 4 to 5 days ago. Yet a good forecast for the global models on this system.

The system seems to be oreganizing slowly as time go's on with a another blow up of deep convection forming around the ciurlation center on earlier visible shown to be very well defined. The LLCC is right under the most Eastern Convection. The system shows fair inflow with only some what fair outflow not including the northwestern quad which might be getting some shear. This alone tells me that this system might get a little stronger with in the next 24 hours. The sab/taf 1.5/2.0 t number which is for a weak to strong depression.


Forecasted track...The GFDL is the only model that is off on its own. So that will not be used for forecasting purposes. My thinking is a northwest track for the next 24 to 36 hours with as the system enters colder waters it will likely lose its upper levels which means it will turn west.

How strong? My thinking is that it will become a tropical storm with in the next 24 hours then a quick weakening then after.

Wind forecast
Now 30 mph
6 hours 35 mph
12 hours 35 mph
24 hours 40 mph tropical storm
36 hours 30 mph weaking over cold waters

Forecasters Matthew

[rainstorm]

sounds about right