Massive Severe Outbreak Today - High Risk in my area.

[beam182]

I'm located in Macon, Missouri, at the intersection of US highways 36 and 63. The forecast last night put us on the edge of a moderate risk. Today, the convective outlook has not only shifted the risk to the SSE, but the risk has also increased greatly, with us being in the rarely-issued HIGH risk zone.

The Public Severe Weather Outlook (also rarely issued, only for extreme situations such as last year's outbreaks), and the HWO both use extremely strong wording, placing us within a high likelihood of strong supercell tornadoes, hail up to baseball size, but most of all, incredible, hurricane-force straight-line winds being the main threat.

http://spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

This forecast is even bleaker than the ones on 5-4-03 and 5-11-03, which were both highly active days. I fear that the supercell risk may shift even further south below I-70, as the cap that was in place seems to be rapidly deteriorating, allowing for the development of powerful straight-line winds and supercells capable of producing long-lived tornadoes anywhere from Sioux City, through Omaha, through KC, to around Joplin, shifting east through 4-6 PM to include local cities such as St. Joesph, Maryville, Lamoni, Bethany, Cameron, Monett, Boonville, Aurora, and Trenton. From 6-10 PM the threat for tornadoes and large hail lessens slightly, while the risk of utterly violent straight-line winds of 80-115 mph increases in the areas of northern, central and eastern Missouri, south central and southeastern Iowa, and west central Illinois. Cities affected during these hours may include Des Moines, Milan, Brookfield, Huntsville, Ottumwa, Kirksville, Macon, Moberly, Columbia, Jefferson City, and eventually Hannibal, Quincy, Quad Cities, and St. Louis later this evening.

While the storms will likely not be as powerful south of I-70 as they will be further north, things are still very favorable for severe weather, due to the heating from currently sunny weather and high dewpoints. The risk for areas further south has indeed increased, so you all should be on guard as well.

Another threat that cannot be overlooked is flooding. A flash flood watch is in effect until tuesday night for the greater KC area, extending eastward into north central Missouri. Flooding kills more people than all other weather-related hazards combined, so if you have to travel, consider flooding as a risk in this area along with tornadoes, very high winds, and large hail. I've tried driving a few years ago where it was just about a half-inch deep, and I almost hydroplaned off the road. It's not pretty stuff, and underestimating it has killed way too many people.

All in all, this will be an extremely dangerous afternoon and evening for the heartland, and everyone should go ahead and set up their NOAA radios now, because watches are already out, and more are definitely going to be issued, as well as warnings. Get those supplies together too. I'm lucky enough to not have to work today, but if you do, keep an eye on the sky when you have a chance, because, as I learned the hard way, work is a terrible place to be during a tornado.

I'm usually geeked about severe weather, and rarely get scared, because I find the storms fun to watch, and they ease the boredom of this rural living, but I'm pretty worried. This is too much. The convective outlooks for today make the saturday outlooks for devestated areas like Hallam, NE look like a joke.

Don't let the sunny skies fool you, this is the big one. Things are forecast to take a RAPID turn for the worst. These types of outbreaks are becoming comparable to last year's amazing storms, and it looks like, after dodging several bullets over the last week, today is finally northern Missouri's turn to get the brunt of it, along with southern Iowa. We're talking about lives being threatened.

So be careful, be smart, and keep an eye on the sky.

-Beam

[yoda]

Very nice discussion! Welcome to Storm2k!

[wx247]

Don't say Monett! Seriously though... great discussion.