Relief for the Southeast? ...

[Stormsfury]

Been awhile since I've updated this section ... very busy (and very bored of dull, dry weather .. still am, but now we're mixing a pre-season heat wave and temperatures likely to exceed 2003's highest temperatures in many locations in the Southeast, and possibly the Mid-Atlantic...including potential for triple-digit heat by the beginning of June).

http://www.stormsfury1.com

(Use the toolbar to my forecast/prognostic discussion)

[Josephine96]

Triple digits by next week?

I'm not surprised.. It's made it up to 96 in my neck of the woods today.

[USAwx1]

Triple digits by next week?

I'm not surprised.. It's made it up to 96 in my neck of the woods today.

yep....and look for a continuation of that. my ideas from last week on a POSSIBLE pattern change for later this week are obviously a BUST, although it will turn slightly cooler in the northeast.

BUT, with the thermal ridge sitting over top of the state, 850 temps rising 18-20 DEG C under pretty much full sun, and ETA forecasted LLVL thicknesses >1430 Meters by 21z THU, interior Central FL --- AWAY from the coast especially will bake once again. Mid and yes some upper 90s. But by now this probably isn't anything new.

Convection should also be sufficiently inhibited as ETA soundings at GNV showed CT's over 100F, weak CAPE, and POsitive SI and LI values.

IF the pattern continues this way, MUCH of the SE will have to rely on tropical systems for relief, and considering as how this is Florida's wet season, the warm/dry pattern doesn't help matters any WRT drought development, expansion or intensification.

[Josephine96]

The local news channels only use "official" forecasts lol..

I get mine from my WeatherBug system.. and the temp. always seems to be higher than they forecast.

It actually went up 1 more degree and made it up to 97 today.

If we continue to be this hot.. we may see a streak of 100 plus days coming..

If I am correct.. we haven't had a "streak" of 100 plus days since 1998, when our AVERAGE temperature for June {or July} was 101 DEGREES!

We may indeed need some tropical systems through here if we continue to bake

[USAwx1]

keep in mind, being that your just outside of Orlando, it will be a degree or two hotter in most cases in the city it's self than in the surrounding areas, due to urban influences.

However, yes, in JUN 1998 the avg. high temp for the month at MCO (Orlando INTL.) was 96.5 DEG F. and the highest observed maximum was ~100F which was recoreded on June 17, 18, and 19, 1998. All three days saw temps AOA 100F.

Central FL was also EXTREMELY dry, with MCO seeing only 1.58" of rain the ENTIRE MONTH. which was -5.74" below average on the month.

RECORD highs were tied or broken on 13/30 days, or ~43% of the days during thr month!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/climat/MCOJUN98.html

[Rainband]

We had above average rain on the west coast the past few months. This is usually our driest month, so I am not concerned, if it continues into the middle of June; which is the start of our wet season, I will be concerned

[USAwx1]

We had above average rain on the west coast the past few months. This is usually our driest month, so I am not concerned, if it continues into the middle of June; which is the start of our wet season, I will be concerned

Which is EXACTLY why tropical moisture is going to be very critical as we head toward the heart of the dry season. IF the pattern doesn't change.

[Rainband]

Which is EXACTLY why tropical moisture is going to be very critical as we head toward the heart of the dry season. IF the pattern doesn't change.

I agree. I just hope I don't have to depend on a Tropical system for moisture

[Rainband]

Which is EXACTLY why tropical moisture is going to be very critical as we head toward the heart of the dry season. IF the pattern doesn't change.

Also if the pattern doesn't change...the tropical systems won't turn away from Florida such as Floyd and Isabel did The current pattern may insure tropical moisture for Fl and the entire SE and Gulfcoast if it stays this way.

[USAwx1]

Ideally, you would not want to, but with diurnal convection pretty much inhibited during the afternoon hours underneath the rather strong cap, low level convregence and lift along the sea breeze boundaries won't do much to initiate convection.

which is where the dependency on tropical moisture comes from, as we get into the hurricane season, that is UNLESS we can get rid of the deep layer ridging.

[Wnghs2007]

What is the outlook on east central Georgia. About 40 miles east north east of the atlanta area? Any relief for us. My high today was 91.6 degrees here today. Our highest temp was 94.3 a couple of weeks ago.

[Stormsfury]

To add to USAwx1's thoughts, the fact that the SFC ridging is located in the Eastern GOM, which has induced a stronger flow of SFC westerlies, which have resulted in pinning the seabreeze (along the GA and Carolina coast right along the coast, and keeping) ... 1) SFC instability at a minimum with drier RH and DP values (only mid-60's). 2) The seabreeze boundary, which can be a trigger for afternoon convection is virtually useless in this pattern ... see reason 1. By the time the seabreeze does penetrate inland, it's too late. The sun is setting, and the atmosphere, even if highly volatile with strong SFC heating is so strongly capped, there's barely a cloud, let alone convection.

For the Florida folks, westerly flow basically overtakes the state, prevent the ATL seabreeze from penetrating inland across the Peninsula ... hence, the with strong subsidence (sinking air), and no collision of the seabreeze boundaries in the Peninsula, no convection ...

SF

[Stormsfury]

What is the outlook on east central Georgia. About 40 miles east north east of the atlanta area? Any relief for us. My high today was 91.6 degrees here today. Our highest temp was 94.3 a couple of weeks ago.

Not good ... generally speaking that region stays within 18-21ºC at H85 which basically translates to 33-36ºC(92ºF-97ºF) at the SFC with maximum insolation, west component, downslope component, and very dry ground enhancing the early season heat wave. Also note, in this pattern, humidity/dewpoint values are generally lower (good and bad situation ... good situation, heat indices aren't much different than actual temperatures, but bad situation, the moisture necessary to initiate afternoon convection simply isn't there.)

SF